If you are bogged down reading downer-bloggers that have nothing better to do than perform exigesis on every utterance that Obama makes, you could do yourself a favor by getting out among the people. I tell you this because the people are excited. The streets of DC are like a live-wire crackling with positive energy. It is the opposite of fear, the opposite of war. It’s the kind of thing that comes together rarely, and its usually not seen in the corridors of world-power but limited to some farm near Woodstock, New York or wherever concerted protest makes some significant breakthough in the national psyche. This is different.
This phenomenon is real and it’s very powerful, even if it is admittedly setting up some impossible expectations. When you place this international outpouring of goodwill and support next to the petulant handwringing making the rounds of the blogosphere, the only way to parse it is that there is a fundamental disconnect. Too many analysts are incapable of breaking out of the mental chains of the last twenty years.
Barack Obama is not looking to win support for his agenda by breaking Republican filibusters. He’s looking to crush all meaningful opposition to his policies. In the words of Conan the Barbarian, he wants to ‘defeat his enemies, see them driven before him, and to hear the lamentations of their women.” But he is not going to attempt that task by polarizing the debate or bullying through his agenda or using the tactics that the Republicans used under Bush and the Democrats failed to use under Clinton. He doesn’t need to do those things. He has the votes to do almost everything he needs to do. He wants more than partisan support. He wants national support. And the way he is going to beat the Republicans on those issues where they might legitimately oppose him is to disorganize them, outorganize them, and rout them.
His rhetoric is tailored not to convince but to disarm. Even his actions are intended to disarm. While Obama brings his army of supporters to bear on national debates, he will bring his potential adversaries into the decision making process. He’ll give them a chance to have some input, he’ll let them have a conference to go over their concerns, he’ll invite them to the White House, and go talk to their columnists in their homes. He’ll even agree to things he need not agree to, just to make his would-be adversaries feel important. But at the end of the day, he is going to get the legislation he wants in the basic form that he wants it. Why?
It’s mostly raw numbers. The Democrats have the votes to do almost anything they want. But there two other factors that are new and poorly understood. The first is Obama himself. The Democrats haven’t seen a president like this with this much congressional support since LBJ, and we all remember the Great Society was the result. The most important factor though is that the Republicans have suffered a total collapse on all fronts. They have lost elections, partisan support, the ability to raise money, the ability to redraw districts in their favor, their credibility on the budget, taxes, national security, and family values…in essence, they no longer have a coherent ideology to rally around.
The Republican also lack a national leader. They don’t even have a Barry Goldwater. Therefore, Republican politicians are rudderless and will increasingly find the safest course is to look out for themselves and their own interests. And the only way for a Republican to be relevant in this Congress, and to make tangible achievements that they can bring back to the voters in their states or districts, is to work with the Democrats on their committees as they draft new laws. They will have to work with the Democrats on energy, financial regulation, agriculture, transportation spending, non-proliferation, and education, and then they will have to vote for that legislation.
This is especially true in the Senate, where the Republicans are more inclined to work in this way and, in any case, they still have some relevance. But the idea that Minority Leader McConnell will be able to filibuster Democratic legislation is absurd. He will never kill off bills that his members have had a say in crafting. And this is why Obama’s refusal to make hard ideological stands and demands is not a signal that he is going to move to the center. He’s not moving to the center, he’s co-opting the center and making it part of his coalition. If you don’t believe, just watch. Obama is going to be the most powerful president since LBJ, and he will leave a similar legacy of progressive legislation.
When I finally went all-in for Obama, it wasn’t his policies, soaring rhetoric, or really, anything about him. It was the pictures. It was the look in the eyes and on the faces of The Hopeful. I wanted to be with them, in support of them.
They are so, so excited, and I’m excited for them, with them.
::
Sounds good to me. But let’s not count our chickens, and let’s remember, too, that he is counting on people like us to make the big push. The thugs are like the Germans in late 1944, defeated, but still possessing plenty of fight.
is on for the Repukeliscum.
This was the “operation”, mostly fictional, promoted by Goebbels at the end of WWII, where the SS and other uber-Nazi partisans went underground to sabotage the peace and continue Nazi goals.
Now the Repukeliscum are going to do Operation Werewolf against Obama. They will delay, they will drag their feet.
We must stop this from succeeding.
I hope, though, that Obama has a plan for dealing with the Conservative Supreme Court, since that Branch of the Government is the only one left that might mount meaningful opposition to his and the Dems’ policies.
IF he gets the Supremes pulling in his direction, there will be nothing that will stop his boat.
requires 9 justices.
Time to pack the court.
without major blowback, I don’t see how Obama could do it.
Better to just appoint VERY YOUNG, VERY LIBERAL judges and hope Justice Kennedy comes around on the key issues. The others are a lost cause.
Need to find ways to ‘convince’ the more conservative judges (Scalia, Alito, Thomas) to step up and take retirement.
Agreed that ‘Packing’ the court probably wouldn’t work–FDR tried it, and blew most of the political capital he’d gained from his first term.
Well, Scalia, Thomas, and Kennedy are looking kind of fragile lately. You never know….
Hope.
I have it.
I hope you’re right.
But then again, hope is something I’ve not seen in eight years. It’s a little hard getting used to the feeling again.
of Dems folding their cards before they even make a play, like D.L. Hughley said last night:
I’d sure like to see Reid gone from this equation.
I was kind of thinking this way, till I read yesterday that BO said he always thought Bush was a good guy. Now, I’m worried again. How can he possibly think that?
that’s the point. He doesn’t think that.
Little hard to tell sometimes if he’s serious or yanking our chains.
Or…hard to tell who he’s talking to–us, or to the brainless dead-enders.
I tend to agree with you that me personally may not think Bush is ‘a good guy’…but when we can’t determine his seriousness, or to whom the comment was directed (i.e…the much-ballyhooed context), it’s too easy to take the paranoid view and assume he’s talking honestly.
the context is that saying something gracious about Bush increases Obama’s power, while saying something nasty about him increases his opponents’ power. The GOP needs things to rally around. The more they are denied those things, the weaker and more scattered they become.
l have to agree w/ boo’s assessment on this; there’s nothing to be gained by beating a dead horse and giving your opponent a rallying point.
as far as you, l, or boo for that matter, not thinking bush is a good guy…we’ve plenty of company in that regard:
that people often report that he’s personably likeable, friendly . . you know, the old “who would you rather have a beer with” thing.
It’s a commentary on his personality, not his morality or politics.
I hope so. Things is bad at this stratus.
Nice and much-needed piece, Boo.
I’ve never liked the charge that the blogs represent out-of-touch theorists, but the gloom found in some corners of the Net at this time of celebration seems to give some credence to that view. You say, Boo, that we haven’t seen a president like this since LBJ. I think we probably haven’t ever seen a president like this, period. One way or another, the combination of his unique nature and the magnitude of his political capital will bring massive change to America.
Will the change pull us in a direction progressives can celebrate? The jury’s still out on that. Right now what matters is that there’s reality-based ground for hope that it will. Which is why now is a time for celebration, not gloomy fears of what might happen. Much of the outcome will depend on what the American people make Obama do.
On last week’s Bill Moyers Journal, cultural historian Simon Schama had a very incisive take on what to expect:
Personally, I’m more than willing to suffer the spectacle of consorting with the bad guys as long as there’s a strong likelihood that the kissing is going to stop.
At one point, not too long after the inauguration, he’ll realize he either has to knock heads together or he will disappear into thin air and no one will be able to find him for evermore. As to the heads, this probably applies more to his own party than to the other one, neither of which has ever deserved, or ever will deserve, the distinction of correctly being referred to as the ‘opposition’. No, never. At most, they’re opportunistic opponents, and opponents are not rivals but antagonists, ill-wishers, maybe enemies. I’m confident he can ultimately handle all this in a political sense, If everything pans out in a more practical, everday sense, is the big question that is making every nervous.
I think you’re right. I spent most of my time during the campaign trying to convince my hiking partners that the Republican brand was as dead and that those left in the GOP were the equivalent of Whigs, but they continued to believe that Oama’s defeat was imminent, that the emperor had clothes. I think for many progressives that attitude has carried over to today, even after the gains of 2008. So I have a lot of hope, coupled with the fear that things are so f…up only revolutionary measures can pull us out of our problems. Obama, for all his superlative qualities, is a pragmatic incrementalist at heart. But there are times for worry and times for joy, and let’s spend a few days on the latter.
It is the job of thinking people not to be side of the executioners — Albert Camus
Right now I am watching HBO’s Inaugural concert (Live on HBO East and HBO West.) It is really good and very star-studded. The Obama family is sitting off to the side watching the event taking place on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial.
Even if you don’t subscribe to HBO, try tuning it in. HBO has requested that all cable companies make it available to everyone for free. It re-runs this evening as well.
Check it out if you’re near a TV.
and even though I haven’t subscribed to HBO, it is coming in for free for this event.
We’re watching it on CNN here. It’s really good.
are in Washington.
BIL is a Big Cheese in the NREL in Golden, CO. They have tickets to the Environmental Ball (not the BIG BALL with Al, but Ball # II, but they have Steven Chu).
I told her to pack TP.
This is why I come to BooMan Tribune. I love the way you lay out in stark terms how Obama is gonna take charge and leave the GOP powerless and crippled in his wake.
I’m also a frequent visitor at OpenLeft, where the skepticism is much higher. I think they are often way too pessimistic and wrong, but they also play an important role. If we don’t push Obama from the left, if we just assume that he will destroy the GOP on his own, then we will fail both Obama and the country.
For example, on this stimulus bill, I think it’s ridiculous that only $85 billion is dedicated to infrastructure, and that of that money only $10 billion (!) is directed towards trains and mass transit. I think the number for trains and mass transit should be $100 billion, not $10 billion.
But if we keep quiet, and Obama is only hearing from centrists and conservatives who want more tax cuts, then he may move more in that direction. So yes, we need to push hard from the left.
But I agree with you about Obama’s power. I even commented at OpenLeft on this. The GOP is virtually powerless at this. They can shape legislation to a very small extent, but they will not be a roadblock like they were the past two years (or 28 years, if you think about it).
My concern with Obama is that he spend as much time talking to and listening to his liberal allies (Krugman, Kerry) as he does listening to his conservative, Blue Dog, GOP opponents.
If you would like to get a little more involved with rail freight issues, here’s a spot you might want to check out. I’ll never forget my first trip to Grand Central Station at Christmas, many years ago. I’ve been a rail fan and supporter ever since. There’s nothing quite like the train for the trip west from Denver, either.
Who’s good for rail passenger issues?
very interesting post! thanks! imo lots of blogosphere doubt comes from not understanding how and why community organizing works. it´s not constructive to paint those opposing changes into a corner to wring concessions out of them,always better to let them save face. it makes no difference to say Bush is a nice guy, what´s important is undoing Bush´s ruinous policies.
I want to believe, I really do. And when you write like this, for that time I do believe it.
But then I remember that the ONLY hope Republicans have for any future as a national party is to destroy Obama. If he has even has an average administration, the Republicans are gone. Eventually the ‘base’ has to go scorched earth. Whether it works is up to the ‘Village’, and they are all wankers.
It’s a VERY strange time. I really believe progressive blogs actually have a decent amount of influence. Lots of the blogs use the Rosevelt ‘make me do what you want’ quote. For the first time in my life, it is true.
nalbar
” the ONLY hope Republicans have for any future as a national party is to destroy Obama.”
Well, that’s pre-election thinking. Now it’s too late. Boo’s point is, they have already screwed themselves as a national party for the foreseeable future — it’s every man for himself, and they HAVE to work with the Democrats. Boo is a very smart guy.
The Republicans have destroyed themselves! This is exactly what was said after Watergate. The Democratic Congress even worried about what would happen if the Republican Party collapsed. They worried about a dictatorship or getting out of touch with the people or about not hearing enough different viewpoints. They made great efforts to be bipartisan. We lasted exactly 4 years, until the Great Oppressor came along.
I don’t think people realize how close we have come to being an overtly fascist state. We aren’t that far from the edge now! You can’t make nice with these thuggees and fascists. They haven’t gone away, they still have more money than we do, and they have every intention of destroying the Obama Presidency. It’s not even about polictics, or race, it’s about money.
If Obama listens to them more than us, and there is every reason to believe that is true; and if Obama does not allow investigations and accountability to go forward, and there is every reason to believe that is true; then he will have a failed Presidency and we will have a failed democracy. I know, I’ve been there before and I don’t want to go back.
All of the folks who support Obama are pro-war apologists. They probably don’t like to think of themselves that way but if any wish to explain away the fact that their candidate has a pro-war record and supports aggressive US intervention around the globe and increased military spending and troop levels and yet they seem to think of Obama as an anti-war candidate I’d be interested in hearing that message.
Add to that Obama has received more funding from Wall St. than any other candidate in the history of US presidential politics and has a perfectly consistent record as being pro big business every single step of his career and you have to in complete denial if you think he is going to be bringing about any meaningful change to the ordinary citizen.
And about that change. As Obama appoints cabinet members that embody the DC status quo how is it folks can even seriously regurgitate such phony marketing slogans as “Change” when describing this corporate shill.
Supporting Obama and supporting the Democrats in any way shape and form is a serious political disorder that perpetuates the criminality of this grotesque economic order and vicious Imperial juggernaut no matter how much lipstick you apply, no matter vhow much history you ignore.
Barack Obama and his followers continue to revise the history of his ascendance, pretending his campaign was rooted among the “outsiders.” The public line is a fiction, as even the most rudimentary research reveals. In fact, Obama’s own words document his intense courtship of the rich and powerful. Unfortunately, “few if any of” Obama’s staunchest supporters have bothered to read a single solitary word of Obama’s blatantly imperial, nationalist, and militarist foreign policy speeches and writings. And my sense is they never will.
Obama is an act of system-legitimizing brilliance.
The predominantly white U.S. business and political establishment still makes sure that nobody who questions dominant domestic and imperial hierarchies and doctrines can make a serious run for higher office – the presidency, above all. It does this by denying adequate campaign funding (absolutely essential to success in an age of super-expensive, media-driven campaigns) and favorable media treatment (without which a successful campaign is unimaginable at the current stage of corporate media consolidation and power) to candidates who step beyond the narrow boundaries of elite opinion. Thanks to these critical electoral filters and to the legally mandated U.S. winner-take-all “two party” system, a candidate who even remotely questions corporate and imperial power is not permitted to make a strong bid for the presidency.
Barack Obama is no exception to the rule. Anyone who thinks he could have risen to power without prior and ongoing ruling class approval is living in a dream world.
Everything’s black and white then? Sorry, I thought there were shades of gray. Maybe even colors. But no, I guess you’re right, the events of this year were pretty much the same as any other year. We’re all just stupid on this blog. Except for you.
Disagree. Hope I’m wrong. Let’s party.
Though I have no qualms about expressing my skepticism about Obama these past couple of months, I do hope you are right in your belief that he is killing the opposition with kindness.
In any event, let’s all lighten up and celebrate the ending of the Bush regime and the historic moment of an African-American president which is one of those Martha Stewart “good things” regardless of how his presidency turns out.
Beyond that, what a downer this week would be if McCain had been elected. We would all be utterly hopeless.