If you are bogged down reading downer-bloggers that have nothing better to do than perform exigesis on every utterance that Obama makes, you could do yourself a favor by getting out among the people. I tell you this because the people are excited. The streets of DC are like a live-wire crackling with positive energy. It is the opposite of fear, the opposite of war. It’s the kind of thing that comes together rarely, and its usually not seen in the corridors of world-power but limited to some farm near Woodstock, New York or wherever concerted protest makes some significant breakthough in the national psyche. This is different.
This phenomenon is real and it’s very powerful, even if it is admittedly setting up some impossible expectations. When you place this international outpouring of goodwill and support next to the petulant handwringing making the rounds of the blogosphere, the only way to parse it is that there is a fundamental disconnect. Too many analysts are incapable of breaking out of the mental chains of the last twenty years.
Barack Obama is not looking to win support for his agenda by breaking Republican filibusters. He’s looking to crush all meaningful opposition to his policies. In the words of Conan the Barbarian, he wants to ‘defeat his enemies, see them driven before him, and to hear the lamentations of their women.” But he is not going to attempt that task by polarizing the debate or bullying through his agenda or using the tactics that the Republicans used under Bush and the Democrats failed to use under Clinton. He doesn’t need to do those things. He has the votes to do almost everything he needs to do. He wants more than partisan support. He wants national support. And the way he is going to beat the Republicans on those issues where they might legitimately oppose him is to disorganize them, outorganize them, and rout them.
His rhetoric is tailored not to convince but to disarm. Even his actions are intended to disarm. While Obama brings his army of supporters to bear on national debates, he will bring his potential adversaries into the decision making process. He’ll give them a chance to have some input, he’ll let them have a conference to go over their concerns, he’ll invite them to the White House, and go talk to their columnists in their homes. He’ll even agree to things he need not agree to, just to make his would-be adversaries feel important. But at the end of the day, he is going to get the legislation he wants in the basic form that he wants it. Why?
It’s mostly raw numbers. The Democrats have the votes to do almost anything they want. But there two other factors that are new and poorly understood. The first is Obama himself. The Democrats haven’t seen a president like this with this much congressional support since LBJ, and we all remember the Great Society was the result. The most important factor though is that the Republicans have suffered a total collapse on all fronts. They have lost elections, partisan support, the ability to raise money, the ability to redraw districts in their favor, their credibility on the budget, taxes, national security, and family values…in essence, they no longer have a coherent ideology to rally around.
The Republican also lack a national leader. They don’t even have a Barry Goldwater. Therefore, Republican politicians are rudderless and will increasingly find the safest course is to look out for themselves and their own interests. And the only way for a Republican to be relevant in this Congress, and to make tangible achievements that they can bring back to the voters in their states or districts, is to work with the Democrats on their committees as they draft new laws. They will have to work with the Democrats on energy, financial regulation, agriculture, transportation spending, non-proliferation, and education, and then they will have to vote for that legislation.
This is especially true in the Senate, where the Republicans are more inclined to work in this way and, in any case, they still have some relevance. But the idea that Minority Leader McConnell will be able to filibuster Democratic legislation is absurd. He will never kill off bills that his members have had a say in crafting. And this is why Obama’s refusal to make hard ideological stands and demands is not a signal that he is going to move to the center. He’s not moving to the center, he’s co-opting the center and making it part of his coalition. If you don’t believe, just watch. Obama is going to be the most powerful president since LBJ, and he will leave a similar legacy of progressive legislation.