Well I got a little “extra” time today so I thought I’d write up a (somewhat) brief analysis of the modern state of Israel and its future prospects, especially in light of the recent events in Gaza.

To truly understand where Israel is today, you’ve actually got to go back to even before the state came into being in 1948.  There is a HECK of a lot of rhetoric and inflamed debate about even the most “undisputed” of facts so I’m going to try to parse this down as objectively as humanly possible.
One of THE major reasons for disruption in today’s Middle East is of course, the British and the French.  During World War 1, the British (and to a lesser extent, the French) fought against the Ottoman Empire, which controlled vast swathes of territory, including what is now Israel.

During that war, the British cultivated both the nascent Zionist organizations’ support (Zion Mule Corps) as well as curried local Arab leaders to combat Turkish domination in the region (see T.E. Lawrence) and fight a sort of rear-guard revolutionary action.

The problems (of the modern era) began immediately AFTER WW1 when a number of things happened.

To begin with, Britain and France had PROMISED local leaders (including yes, some Jewish ones) that they would be granted independence and self-rule.  That actually never happened.

Through a series of outright lies, forced revolutions, coup d’etats and other “foreign policy” shenanigans, the British and French installed puppet rulers and allowed absolutely no true independence in most of what is now the Middle East.

The countries that are today Cyprus, Jordan, Israel, Egypt and Iraq fell under British control while the countries that are today Lebanon and Syria fell under French control.

The second thing of significance that happened was that the British (especially) carved up the Middle East in ways favorable to CONTROLLING the population, not based on ethnic or tribal identities.  Therefore Iraq’s three largely disparate populations got lumped together under a puppet king, leading to all the “fun” we’ve seen here in the last 20 years.

The countries now known as Jordan and Israel fell under a single area ruled by Britain known as the British Mandate of Palestine.  The legalistic term “Mandate” was partly due to the peace treaty signed after the war – if the territory was given OUTRIGHT to the victors then it would be counted as part of the reparations owed by Germany (and the Ottoman Empire).  But since it was only a “Mandate” aka a quasi-legal permission given by the League of Nations, then it didn’t “count” towards paying back the reparations.  

And of course excessive reparations paid to the victors of WW1 was one of the factors that fueled Hitler’s rise to power in Germany.

So from WW1 to WW2 (and slightly thereafter), the British were in full political control of what is now Israel.  The eastern half (now the nation of Jordan) was given to a guy named Hussein, and there’s a long story about that and how he and his family were imposed on people who had no desire for him, but I’ll leave that for another day.

The British meanwhile, had a bit of a dilemma on their hands.  On one hand were the Jews in Palestine (as well as an increasing number of supporters in esp. Eastern Europe and Russia as anti-semitism rose) who were largely SUPPORTIVE of the British.  Most of the Jews immigrating to Palestine in this era were also European and therefore a little more “human” to the British.

On the other hand was the fact that the majority of the inhabits were Arabs AND that due to design, the wealthiest Arab leaders in the region were forced to pay the British a lot of money.  It’s a complicated story as well but essentially the British just kept in place the old Turkish system in which leaders had to pay quasi-feudalistic “dues” to the rulers in exchange for semi-autonomy.

Using standard British colonial tactics, they pitted different factions against one another, including antagonizing the Shi’a in southern Lebanon (under French control) to conduct cross-border raids, etc.  

Over time, a combination of inflamed anti-semitism by some Arab leaders as well as general disaffection against British rule (including the death of a prominent leader at the hands of British police in 1936) led a lot of Arabs to start aligning with Nazi Germany.  Again, just as the British had promised the Arabs independence in exchange for support, the Nazis did the same when World War 2 came around.

World War 2 and all of its amply documented horrors then occurred and now there were hundreds of thousands of European Jews anxious to move to Palestine and yet they were surrounded by neighbors who were bitterly resentful of them.  And all of this was combined with the fact that the Jews had largely supported Britain during WW2 and the Arabs had largely sided with Germany.

In 1947, the UN, a brand-new organization, tried to reach a partition plan of what would be today’s Israel but, through a long and very disputed list of reasons, that never took place.

The local Jewish population became sufficiently well-armed and felt strong enough to unilaterally declare independence in 1948 and the British essentially fled.  

Surrounding Arab countries immediately invaded and were defeated and the country was established.  However a number of key things must be noted.

First of all, 1948 Israel was only what is Israel today MINUS the Gaza Strip and what’s called in English the “West Bank” (and Eastern Jerusalem).  Gaza itself is pretty small but the West Bank is a HUGE chunk of territory.  

Secondly, due to a number of (again, much disputed) factors, a LARGE percentage of the local Arab population in Israel proper (i.e. not WB or Gaza) left the country and have NEVER been allowed to return.  Millions of those people (and their descendants) now live in UN refugee camps in surrounding nations to this day.

From 1948 to about 1956, Israel was the most independent (and least viable security-wise) that it was ever to be.  In 1956 was the Suez Crisis, by which the Egyptians tried to rule themselves and cut off the Suez Canal, thereby infuriating the British and led to an invasion (supported by Israel, seizing an opportunity).

The growing might of post-WW2 United States led to a series of tactically brilliant moves by which the British were kneecapped, leading to the US assuming all of the previously British influence and power in the Middle East, including with Israel.  By this point, Israel became the “special partner” with the United States that has existed to this day.

Part (and only part) of this was that Israel was in the middle of the “great” game” or the “cold war”, wherein some nations in the region (particularly Syria, Egypt under Nasser and then Iraq) became closely allied with the Soviet Union and the USA went all out to have ITS allies in the region (including Israel).

Concurrent with all of this was that Egypt’s leader Gamal Nasser was trying (and almost succeeded) in uniting the various Arab factions and “nations” in the Middle East under one pan-Arab leadership (his).  This of course was something neither the United States (or Israel) wanted.

In 1967, through a series of again, hotly disputed events, the nations of Egypt, Syria, Jordan (and to a tiny extent, Iraq) fought a war with Israel and were quite badly defeated.  Israel took over the territories now known as the West Bank and Gaza Strip (and E. Jerusalem) and have ruled them ever since.

In 1979, the historic Egypt-Israeli peace treaty was signed, thereby hard coding the fact that Egypt will receive billions of dollars in aid every year, thereby propping up a pro-American dictator, especially useful as it is the largest Arab nation.

So, that’s an EXTREMELY short version of the past.  Now let’s talk about Israel’s present and future.

1) Its neighbors – through various reasons and motives (as usual, hotly disputed), Israel has either been invaded or invaded many of its neighbors and has extremely poor relations with all (or most) of them.

Anti-Israeli (esp anti-Zionist) rhetoric is EXTREMELY useful and politically energizing for a lot of regional politicians, the most famous of which is currently Iranian president Ahmedinejad but he is by far not the only one.  

Anti-Zionist rhetoric also politically propels such parties as Hizb’allah in Lebanon and Hamas.

Some of the motives behind this stance are hate based to be sure, while others are founded on legitimate grievances.  Other Arab (or Iranian) politicians use anti-Zionist rhetoric as a way to redirect local grievances against domestic repression.

Therefore, REGARDLESS of the motives, there are definitely some politically savvy reasons for being hostile (whether in terms of actual physical threat or just verbally) towards Israel.

Therefore it is EXCEEDINGLY UNLIKELY that this regional hostility will dissipate any time soon.

2) Its economy – to put it in a nutshell, Israel doesn’t have an economy for shit.  I believe I saw the other day that the GNP projection for next year is 0%, as in none whatsoever.

Israel has already had a series of hyper-inflation crises and their economy is based on military hardware, tourism and diamond cutting and polishing.  

It is also entirely propped up by United States foreign aid, whether cash in hand, military supplies or “guarantees” on Israeli loans.  

Most of its recent immigration has been from the very poorest of Jewish communities from around the world, esp such as Russia, and they arrive with virtually nothing and very few translatable skills to contribute to the economy.

And last but definitely not last, Israel’s military is hugely dependent on its reserve forces.  Every able-bodied Israeli Jewish citizen (with some exceptions – the ultra-religious Orthodox right for example) is on call at any time to be mobilized into the military.

This means every single time Israel conducts a major offensive, all of those men are removed from the work place, thereby further destabilizing the economy.

3) Its politics – again to put it in a nutshell, Israel is screwed and is only remotely democratic at the moment.

Through a complicated series of reasons, a very small hardcore religious segment of the Jewish population has a disproportionate influence on the government.  This influences all sectors right down to the fact that only Orthodox Jewish marriages are recognized by the state, meaning two non-practicising Jews have to go to Cyprus to even receive legal benefits (a common occurrence).

ALL of the residents of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip are not citizens of Israel and therefore have no rights, including the right to vote.

A large segment of the Arab population in Israel proper have reduced rights (or none) including being barred from the right to vote.  Many political parties are banned, therefore further disenfranchising even its citizens who CAN vote.

4) Population – Even if every Arab leader and political organization tomorrow decided they love Israel forever and want nothing but sweet, dear peace, Israel is now and forevermore at a population disadvantage.

Right now, today, if every Palestinian either in Israel proper, the occupied territories or in an official UN-administered refugee camp were granted both residency in Israel AND the right to vote, the Jewish population would be instantly outnumbered.  Assuming a widespread wave of nothing but peaceful intentions, the state of Israel as a Jewish entity would be voted out of existence immediately.

Due to a number of factors, Arab birth rates are now and have always been higher  than those of Jews in Israel, therefore this disparity is only going to rise.  Israeli Jews, just like Caucasian “whites” in the United States, are slowly being drowned in a sea of other ethnicities with a higher birth rate.  So it goes.

Israel, quite simply put, is like a staffed base on the moon – it is extremely expensive, entirely reliant on long-distance support and is inherently unsustainable and the complete opposite of self-sufficient.  

A lot of words have been written about the Israeli “Lobby” and its undue influence on the United States government, most of it rightly so.  If I were an Israeli leader, especially a hardcore rightwing one, I’d be doing the exact same thing.

But all the wars, all the military offensives, all the billions of dollars in arms and cash, all of the spying and espionage, all of the wielding of influence is just staving off the inevitable.  Israel, as a “business model” is simply unsustainable in the long run and a brief glance at the situation makes this readily apparent.

In many ways, the situation there is quite similar to the apartheid rule of the whites in South Africa or the British in India or the Italians in Somalia or the Americans in the Philippines.

I don’t really know what I’d recommend to the Jewish people of Israel if they asked me for my advice.  I guess I’d tell them to sue for peace NOW, find some kind of solution they can live with and use their influence with the United States to guarantee respect for their religious and cultural heritage.  But Jews running Israel as a Jewish state is a situation which essentially is going to fail at some time sooner or later.  

End the bloodshed now, for all those deaths are already in vain and there is no need for anyone else to die.

Pax