Establishmentarian commentators like the New York Times’ David Sanger seem almost as flabbergasted by the breadth of President Obama’s legislative ambition as by the stunning collapse of the the global economy. The comparisons to Lyndon Johnson, Franklin Roosevelt, or some hybrid of the two, are coming fast and furious. We’re also hearing more and more talk about the end of the Reagan Revolution.
If [Lyndon] Johnson’s rallying cry was an end to poverty in the world’s richest nation, Mr. Obama’s is an end to the Reagan Revolution. With the proposed tax increases on couples making more than $250,000, Mr. Obama has declared that trickle-down economics — the theory that the entire country benefits as the nation’s richest amass and spend — was a fantasy. He denounced it in moral terms, declaring in his budget that “there is something wrong when we allow the playing field to be tilted so far in the favor of so few.”
Before I comment on this new phenomenon in political reporting, I want to ask you if you have ever looked at a chart of the highest marginal tax rates since the income tax was created in 1913? Take a look because it’s instructive. Obama has made some sweeping proposals, but he hasn’t proposed restoring tax rates to anything close to what they were for the first six years of Reagan’s administration, let alone the 91% rate that prevailed under Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy. Ask yourself a question. If every dollar a CEO made over $500,000 was taxed at 91%, would he or she bother asking for 20 million? Would any board even consider giving 18 million to the government just to give two million to their CEO? Of course not.
So, while we are entering a new progressive era that will be similar in many ways to the era of Roosevelt/Truman and the era of Kennedy/Johnson, we’re not there yet. The Republicans will continue their decline for some time because they don’t have ideas suited for the circumstances the nation is facing, and if they’re going to win the presidency they will need the Democrats to start an unpopular war in Korea, Vietnam, or some other country. It won’t hurt if the Republicans can find a likable war hero in the Eisenhower mold. But don’t worry about Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindal becoming president because it isn’t going to happen.
The Reagan Experiment has ended in abject failure leaving the diehards, a la the Marxist-Leninists, to argue that it just wasn’t implemented correctly. But the Reagan hangover isn’t just the shattered global economy, it’s thirty years of stinking thinking that is so ingrained in the public that it will take a long time to unlearn. Obama is making strong steps in the right direction but, as the pendulum swings, we’re still far to the right of where Reagan left off when he retired. That’s not a knock on Obama. He doesn’t want to stun the system. It’s like adjusting the pH level in an aquarium or pitching yeast into a beer wort. You have to avoid making changes too quickly or everything shuts down and dies.
We can argue about how progressive Obama is, but he’s pushing aggressively enough to stagger the political commentariat who thought they’d killed this kind of thing off.
…[Obama] appears to have shed President Clinton’s fear of being labeled an old-fashioned liberal.
They also thought they’d cured of us of this trash-talk about the gray areas of capitalism, as Al Giordano points out:
From September’s reference to “crony capitalism” to yesterday’s “chaotic and unforgiving capitalism” the howls from the vestigial simpletons of Cold War mythology (they swallowed the lie that there are only two items on the economic menu: “capitalism or communism”) will continue to scream bloody socialism… and the vast majority of Americans will continue to yawn and tune them out.
In other words, we have a president who dares to question the efficacy and morality of unfettered capitalism. Times have changed. And it’s hard to believe I had to argue that Obama was progressive, and progressive in a way that the Clintons are not.
You and me both, re defending Obama as a progressive. I can’t tell you how many thought he was a phony centrist lightweight. I argued he was a sincere progressive heavyweight.
But I won’t rub their noses in it. They have other things to worry about that are far more serious than their errant judgment re Obama.
That’s because the self-appointed official spokespeople for “the left” are a bunch of pompous morons.
Btw – that tax chart isn’t even complete, per the U.S. Treasury. During WWII, tax rates went as high as 94%.
Btw, Booman. It may well be that tax rates need to soar that high again. We spent, by several accounts, roughly $1 trillion on WWII. The Washington Post last year said the cost of the Iraq War would likely be $3 trillion, adding, “and that’s a conservative estimate.
At some point, there’s no where else to get money except from the rich, especially when you’re trying to create stability in a society where an increasing number are out of work. California just broke double digits in unemployment!
Roosevelt didn’t raise taxes all at once. They went up gradually. But they went way up. The result? By the 50s, we had the largest middle class in this country’s history. That continued until Kennedy, of all people, first lowered the taxes on the rich by nearly 20% (Kennedy proposed and lobbied for this, but it wasn’t passed until after his death). But even then, the middle class continued, while not quite as strong, into the sixties and seventies. It truly was the Reagan revolution that upset a critical balance in this country.
It appears there’s only so much concentration of wealth an economy can bear. Everytime it gets too concentrated, like a see-saw, the economy tips over to one side. That’s why it takes hefty taxes to right it again. That money has to come back to the government and out again to others, to keep the money flowing like water through society.
How many refrigerators will a rich man buy? Several. One for each residence. How many refrigerators will 1000 middle class people buy? At least 1000.
Which stimulates the economy more?
Obama’s approach is to transform the systems outside of finance and defense first. Energy, Environment, Agriculture, Healthcare. And at the same time give consumers more protection, make it easier for workers to organize and provide more overall voice to labor.
I’ve been struggling to reconcile Obama’s seeming progressivism with his seeming anathma to bank nationalization and an economic policy team with a serious ideological tilt towards rubinonmics. Avoiding Kennedy’s fate may just be priority one for the O-Team which would explain his finance team and policy to date.
If Obama transforms systems outside of big finance and defense he avoids a head-on collision with the money boys and critical parts of the military industrial complex.
The scary thing is though…the finance and banking system is fundamentally broken and needs restructuring. So how do we do it short of a new global war that rearranges power structures?
Roosevelt didn’t raise taxes all at once. They went up gradually. But they went way up. The result? By the 50s, we had the largest middle class in this country’s history.
Krugman points this all out in “The Conscience of a liberal.” Good post Lisa!
That chart on the maximum tax rates sure is a stunner, BooMan. I can’t thank you enough for reproducing it.
Reagan and his supply side economics looks to be the real villain in the economic woodpile. Look at the rates at the start and end of his administrations. Perhaps, we should rename government monuments and buildings which were named in his honor.
The mantra of the Republican Party is don’t tax the rich. As current economic difficulties focus the attention of the masses upon the privileged position of these same rich in American society, people will begin to realize what the Republicans actually stand for: special protection and tax deals for those who have the most. I can feel a political tsunami forming. I think it’s going to wash away very many GOP incumbents in future elections.
Yes, Obama will have to dodge LBJ’s involvement in a foreign war if he is going to achieve his program of progressive reforms. And controlling a bloated military addicted to extraordinarily expensive new toys like the F22 and F35 fighters to say nothing of the omnipopular Star Wars defense will not be an easy task.
I wish him well in the enormous battles that are coming. Privilege never gives up its positions of power easily. But, it can be defeated with care and determination. Viva Obama.
extra points for working in the beer reference!
the Republicans aren’t looking for Ike. they’ve found their leader.
as Steve Benen observes,
It’s Rush Limbaugh: