What was a decent interval during the Vietnam War has become a decent outcome in the Iraq War. Naturally, bad things that are preventable could result when the American troops begin to draw back on June 30. There is a difference between avoiding those things or even learning to live with them, and thinking a decent outcome is possible. There will be no decent outcome for America in Iraq. It isn’t possible. There may be something resembling a decent outcome for Iraq, but that depends on the Iraqis. If they can hold their country together, maintain some level of representative government, and attract foreign investment, then they may emerge from this fiasco stronger than they entered it. But, even then, it will take decades to reach a point where the sacrifice and disruption they have endured might look like it was worth it. Too much damage has been done and too many lives have been lost or traumatized for there to be a decent outcome in the short-term.
And, it is quite possible that Iraq will never again have any degree of cohesiveness and economic growth. We stayed in Vietnam for several extra years just hoping to give the South Vietnamese government some small chance of survival. In reality, we just wanted North Vietnam to wait a bit before conquering the South after we withdrew so that we could save some face. Iraq is a bit different. They won’t be conquered after we leave, but they might split apart at the seams. For this reason, some investment in strengthening their internal policing powers has made sense for both them and for us. But they have to ride the bike eventually, and that time is coming soon.
