One thing that is helping NRSC Chairman John Cornyn outperform his predecessors Liddy Dole and John Ensign is the fact that he doesn’t have to defend any dead-duck incumbents. Dole had to deal with mortally crippled incumbents like Rick Santorum, Conrad Burns, and George Allen. Ensign had to deal with Ted Stevens. By contrast, Cornyn can mainly focus on defending open seats. That might seem counterintuitive, since it is generally thought to be easier to defend incumbents than open seats, but that truism doesn’t hold when the incumbent is under investigation or generally loathed.
Another factor helping Cornyn is that the president’s party normally loses seats in the first midterm election of his or her term. Anticipating that fact, more candidates are willing to make the plunge and challenge Democratic incumbents.
Yet, having noted these advantages, it remains true that Cornyn has had a lot of success in recruiting. He has at least put the GOP in a position to gain some senate seats in the 2010 elections. During the last two cycles, the Republican challenge was to limit the damage.
It’s still more likely than not that the Democrats will win the open seat elections in Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire. But the Republicans can more than make up for that if they can pull off coups in Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, and Colorado. It looks likely that significant pressure will be put on Barbara Boxer and Blanche Lincoln’s seats, as well.
The Republicans are definitely not out of the woods yet, though, because on a good night the Democrats could score another bruising victory that would have devastating consequences for the GOP. If the Dems pick up the open seats in Missouri, Ohio, and New Hamphire, hold all their own seats, and add upset wins in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Louisiana, they’ll have a 66 seat majority.
On the flip side, if the Republicans can hold, say, two out of three from Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire, hold all their other seats, and add Connecticut, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, and Illinois, the Democrats will be down to 53 seats.
Needless to say, neither extreme result is likely. The most likely outcome is that either the Dems or the Republicans net two seats…maybe three. It’s obviously preferable that the Democrats are the ones to pick up seats. But Cornyn has done a good job of making that less probable and of giving his side a chance to win the night for a change.
A lot will depend on what happens between now and election night in 2010. But a lot will be determined in the next few months as the two sides complete the recruitment period and we find out how successful Obama is in implementing his first-year agenda.