The Republicans have unleashed a beast that they don’t seem able to control. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the Sunshine State, where Governor Charlie Crist’s campaign for U.S. Senate is starting to look a little wobbly. But, it’s also evident in Upstate New York, where a special election is coming up in the 23rd District for the House of Representatives. The Chairman of the NRSC, Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, has wisely sought out candidates who fit their states in Illinois (Mark Kirk), Connecticut (Rob Simmons), Delaware (Mike Castle), New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte), and Florida (Gov. Crist). But the base of the Republican Party is no match for these “moderates” and, other than Castle, none of them seem assured of winning their primaries. Cornyn certainly has failed to clear the field for them, which means any victory could be pyrrhic if it winds up consuming the entire bankroll and leaves nothing left over for the general election.
The resistance seems to be coming most strongly from the energized Tea Party Movement, a group of misfits, racists, and conspiracy theorists who have little grasp of reality. As the Wall Street Journal puts it:
But these newly energized conservatives present GOP leaders with a potential problem: The party’s strategy for attracting moderate voters risks alienating activists who are demanding ideological purity, who may then gravitate to other candidates or stay at home. It’s a classic dilemma faced by parties in the minority — tension between those who want a return to the party’s ideological roots and those who want candidates most likely to win in their districts.
And:
…the tea-party movement appears aggressively nonpartisan, much like Ross Perot’s supporters in 1992. “The tea-party movement, in my judgment, has proven to be very real, but it’s precisely the fact that it’s real that makes it difficult to take advantage of,” says Vin Weber, a former Minnesota congressman and now a top Republican strategist. “They don’t want to be co-opted by the Republican Party.”
I don’t know how “real” the Tea Party Movement is, but they are real enough to cause some serious obstacles to the GOP’s efforts to moderate their image and run reasonable candidates. It doesn’t help that the Republicans in Congress aren’t showing any signs of moderation at all. And, it’s taking a toll. House Minority Leader John Boehner has a thirteen percent favorability rating (i.e., after considering the margin of error, Boehner is slightly more popular than a case of The Clap). Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has the approval of a mere seventeen percent of the electorate. And the Republican Party as a whole can only muster the support of 21% of the people. As Kos pointed out recently, the Republicans are now registering new voters in Nevada at a slower pace than the hard-right Independent American Party. People seem to hate Republicans at levels not seen in memory for one of the two major parties.
What little energy there is in the GOP is all coming from its crazy Michele Bachmann-Steve King-Paul Broun fringe. Ordinarily, I’d put my money on the Establishment candidates winning these primaries because they usually do. But I’m not sure the Establishment still has enough control of these loonies to prevent a bunch of embarrassing and costly defeats.
