The Republicans have unleashed a beast that they don’t seem able to control. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the Sunshine State, where Governor Charlie Crist’s campaign for U.S. Senate is starting to look a little wobbly. But, it’s also evident in Upstate New York, where a special election is coming up in the 23rd District for the House of Representatives. The Chairman of the NRSC, Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, has wisely sought out candidates who fit their states in Illinois (Mark Kirk), Connecticut (Rob Simmons), Delaware (Mike Castle), New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte), and Florida (Gov. Crist). But the base of the Republican Party is no match for these “moderates” and, other than Castle, none of them seem assured of winning their primaries. Cornyn certainly has failed to clear the field for them, which means any victory could be pyrrhic if it winds up consuming the entire bankroll and leaves nothing left over for the general election.
The resistance seems to be coming most strongly from the energized Tea Party Movement, a group of misfits, racists, and conspiracy theorists who have little grasp of reality. As the Wall Street Journal puts it:
But these newly energized conservatives present GOP leaders with a potential problem: The party’s strategy for attracting moderate voters risks alienating activists who are demanding ideological purity, who may then gravitate to other candidates or stay at home. It’s a classic dilemma faced by parties in the minority — tension between those who want a return to the party’s ideological roots and those who want candidates most likely to win in their districts.
And:
…the tea-party movement appears aggressively nonpartisan, much like Ross Perot’s supporters in 1992. “The tea-party movement, in my judgment, has proven to be very real, but it’s precisely the fact that it’s real that makes it difficult to take advantage of,” says Vin Weber, a former Minnesota congressman and now a top Republican strategist. “They don’t want to be co-opted by the Republican Party.”
I don’t know how “real” the Tea Party Movement is, but they are real enough to cause some serious obstacles to the GOP’s efforts to moderate their image and run reasonable candidates. It doesn’t help that the Republicans in Congress aren’t showing any signs of moderation at all. And, it’s taking a toll. House Minority Leader John Boehner has a thirteen percent favorability rating (i.e., after considering the margin of error, Boehner is slightly more popular than a case of The Clap). Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has the approval of a mere seventeen percent of the electorate. And the Republican Party as a whole can only muster the support of 21% of the people. As Kos pointed out recently, the Republicans are now registering new voters in Nevada at a slower pace than the hard-right Independent American Party. People seem to hate Republicans at levels not seen in memory for one of the two major parties.
What little energy there is in the GOP is all coming from its crazy Michele Bachmann-Steve King-Paul Broun fringe. Ordinarily, I’d put my money on the Establishment candidates winning these primaries because they usually do. But I’m not sure the Establishment still has enough control of these loonies to prevent a bunch of embarrassing and costly defeats.
But the establishment has control over our VOTE, and the reporting thereof.
I’m not so optimistic.
Illinois will be a telling test case. The GOP here fell under the spell of the irrational Right following Gov Ryan’s conviction and has not recovered since. They’ve managed to lose pretty much every election with candidates far to the right of the state. Kirk is already being attacked as a RINO for voting for Cap and Trade, even though he’s since waffled on it. Kirk’s likely advantages will be money and a large and divided set of opponents on the hard Right.
If he makes it through the primary he’ll be formidable, especially against a banking heir with ties to the Dem machine statewide and in Cook County. OTOH, Kirk provided great ammo with his advice to China not to invest in the US, and with his backpeddling (wishy-washy) on his moderate stances. The Dem primary will probably be lopsided, so I fear misguided Dems and Indies will cross over to assure a “moderate” Rep candidate, just in case.
Because listening to Bill Kristol usually works out so well.
Who do you see on the Dem side? Giannoulios?
Kirk is also on the way wrong side of health care, and if Obama can get that passed soon with a strong effort, Kirk can be labeled an insurance company stooge. Which he is.
Giannoulios seems to be pretty much the shoo-in for the primary unless something changes. I think his banking and Dem machine connections are worrying for the general.
I agree that what happens with healthcare reform will have everything to do with the election results. If we end up with an unsellable “compromise” that’s seen as a loss or a cave, Obama won’t have coattails, which will put his former seat, even in Illinois, in danger. With a triumphant reform, Kirk will be a distant underdog.
they lost control of the beast in 2008 with the nomination of mcstain and palin.
a modern day, real life redux of mary shelly’s classic frankenstein where the creation destroys the creator.
frankly, it couldn’t happen too a more deserving group. especially when the so called mainstream RATs are represented by the likes of this.
with any luck, they’ll be relegated to limbo as the lunatic fringe minority for at least a generation.
Polled.
Interesting. It seems that Rush gets the men, but Beck gets the women of the “true Republicans”. Must be Beck’s babyface and propensity for crying.
And ideology? Carville and company don’t probe deeper into the origins of their ideological concern.
And they don’t dig into the fact that what tax cuts for he rich and corporations have brought is higher taxes for everyone else. And these people are caught between declining purchasing power and unemployment on the one side and increased property and sales taxes on the other.
The effect of race is very subtle in the thinking of these people; it is indirect and related to the government spending issue. But it is not absent, as Cajun Jim would have you believe.
“to the last i grapple with thee …”
Actually, I find it frightening because the opposition historically picks up a lot of seats when one party controls DC. That means we will have more kooks wanting to investigate all the Muslim Interns who work for Congress, Birthers, Deathers, Tenthers, Czar hunters, witch hunts on Admin gay employees, etc.
McCarthyism is coming to America again.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/30219673/the_lie_machine/
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/04/09/lobbyists-planning-teaparties/
Not that it’s actually a secret, so who do ‘they’ (i.e., WSJ, etc.) really think they’re kidding? Yes, I know, it’s only a rhetorical comment since everyone in the thinking public already knows.
I think the negative numbers among independents lately represent a generalized pox on both houses stance. They’re not substantially less likely to vote for Dems but they’re turned off by unseemliness of the current political climate.
The usual dynamic of weeding out the non-partisans in the mid-term through negative campaigning may not work this time. The sort of irrational escalation we’re seeing lately creates problems for the Republicans. The ideological purity litmus test they’ve created requires they go bonkers to please the party regulars and that’s a hard message to sell in the regular election.
There’s no moderating influences lately. And many of these people — those who aren’t party operatives — are against the Republicans because they’re sooooooo anti-government. They’re the libertarians (also nativists, etc.) and they rationalize that they’re superior because the Republicans are corrupt when compared to them (think Paul voters).
I can’t help but compare our current situation to the breakup of the Whigs in the 1850s, and the the tea party people to the anti-Masons and No-Nothings who emerged in that pre-Civil War context.
Nice observation and use of the metaphor used by JFK in his Inaugural Address.
…..”remember that, in the past, those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside.”