The Phillies should have pitched Cliff Lee last night. If they had, they probably would have won pivotal game four. But, last night’s loss is tonight’s gain. Lee will pitch on full rest, while A.J. Burnett will pitch on short-rest. For Burnett, more than a potential World Series title is at stake. If he can out-duel a nearly unhittable Cliff Lee, he’s almost assured of taking home the Most Valuable Player’s award.

Despite winning three games, no Yankee hitter has dominated the series. A-Rod has only two hits, although both were huge game-changers. If his bat wins tonight’s game, too, he just might win the MVP with a batting average under .200. Another possibility is Derek Jeter. He’s batting .412 in the Series so far, but he only has one run batted in. Jorge Posada leads the team with five RBI and he has a nice .308 batting average. But Jorge probably won’t start tonight’s game because Jose Molina usually catches Burnett. None of this will matter if the Yankees don’t win tonight, and their chances aren’t that great. The Yankees’ offense will be depleted without Posada and their Designated Hitter, Hideki Matsui. And Cliff Lee is on one of the hottest post-season pitching streaks I can remember.

It should be a pitcher’s duel. The thing to look for is A.J. Burnett’s control. If he has command of his pitches, this game should remain very low scoring until the starting pitchers begin to tire in the seventh or eighth innings. In Game One, Jeter had three hits off Lee, equalling the total for the rest of his team. If Jeter is successful again in getting on base, it’s important that he can steal a base or get moved into scoring position by Damon.

One thing I don’t think we’ll see this time out is anyone deliberately hitting A-Rod with pitches. He’s been drilled three times now, and the last one resulted in a warning from the umpires. If the Yankees get a huge lead, you might see a Yankee pitcher even the score by drilling Chase Utley or Ryan Howard. But, if they do, they’ll get tossed out of the game.

Final thoughts: the best way to beat a pitcher like Lee is to jump on him early and take the raucous crowd out of the game. Lee likes to work fast, so expect to see the Yankee batters calling time-out a lot to disrupt his rhythm. As for the Phillies, a nice little three-run inning early on should be plenty to put the Yankees to sleep. In other words, he who scores first is probably going to win this game.