Here is something for David Brooks to think about. Let’s say that we poll ten voters. Four are registered Democrats, three are registered Republicans, and three are registered independents. We ask them what they think about abortion rights. Imagine that 3 of the 4 Democrats support abortion rights, but none of the Republicans and only one of the independents do. You’d find that 75% of Democrats, and 0% of Republicans and 33% of independents support abortion rights. But, now, imagine you come back a year later and poll them again. Their opinions on abortion rights haven’t changed, but one of the Republicans has become fed up with the party and re-registered as an independent.
Your new results? Democrats and Republicans still show the same level of support for abortion rights, but now only 25% of independents do. Clearly, the country has moved to the right on this issue.
However, the sample’s opinion hasn’t changed at all. What’s changed is that the independent sample has become more conservative while the other samples have remained unchanged. While 33% used to identify as Republicans, now only 20% do. And, while 33% used to indentify as independents, now 40% do.
This is a simple example, but it reflects what has been happening in this country over the past couple of years. Common sense should tell you that a mass movement of voters away from the Republican Party towards an independent self-identification is a movement to the left. But, you won’t see that movement on every issue. A lot of voters still hold the same opinions on policy and social issues that they used to, but their opinion of the GOP has deteriorated. They haven’t become Democrats, but they have become incrementally more likely to vote for them. The result is that the pool of independents now expresses more conservative opinions and even votes just a little bit more often for the Republicans, but the newly independent voters in the pool are actually voting just a little bit more often for the Democrats than they used to (even as, overall, they still favor the GOP).
It looks like the independents are moving to the right, but, on the level of individual voters, they are actually moving ever so slightly to the left.
I think there is a good deal of confusion about what an Independent is as well. I liken it to agnosticism – for every philosophical agnostic who believes that ultimate reality is unknowable there are probably 100 functional agnostics who neither know nor care. These are the majority of the independents, although they rarely vote in mid-term elections – they don’t really care.
I’ve always thought “independent” gave undeserved cachet to mere lack of interest. It would be interesting if pollsters tried to break the category down: “alienated”, “waiting for 3rd party”, “candidates not parties”, “single issue”, etc. Or maybe just “other”.
Fascinating, well-drawn example.
Excellent analysis, but the concept is too complex for the villagers to understand. Only simplicity and sound bites will do for the simpletons…
To paraphrase one of the greatest presidents never to hold office, they understand it – they just can’t sell it…
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Years ago I volunteered at a Women’s clinic that offered physicals, lab tests, pre-natal care, birth control and abortion counseling.
Women who wanted abortions have to have a complete physicial before being referred on to physicians who performed abortions which were not performed at this clinic.
The women who took advantage of the services of this clinic were of ALL RACES, SKIN COLORS, ECONOMIC STATUS, NATIONALITIES AND RELIGIONS, including CATHOLICS and REPUBLICANS.
Some of the women who went on to received abortion counseling were CATHOLICS AND REPUBLICANS.
Some of the women who chose to have abortions were CATHOLICS AND REPUBLICANS.
Anyone who doubts that REPUBLICANS don’t do the same things as the rest of the population lives in fantasy land.
God, I really hate hypocrits.
Every Republican voter isn’t Pro Life and every Democratic voter isn’t Pro Choice, even if that is the litmus test that often gets applied to the respective Patries’ candidates for office…