I think it’s true that white progressives and black progressives live in totally different worlds and that white progressives can be kind of clueless about how their efforts at purity are not valued or appreciated by many black progressives. The biggest difference is economic, but the distinctions manifest themselves in unpredictable ways. I’d note that labor union progressives also have periodic differences with white progressives over some of the same issues. I’ve written about some of this in the past. I talked about Academic Progressives vs. Urban Progressives because I don’t think it is strictly a racial phenomenon. But we should also talk about Union Progressives, because they are distinct from white professionals and have different concerns.
The progressive blogosphere is completely dominated by academic progressives. Bloggers of color tend to be just as highly educated as white bloggers. Most of the really well known progressive bloggers have advanced degrees, in law, economics, political science, or something else. They tend to be interested in the theoretical aspects of public policy, like determining what might be the ideal way to deliver affordable, accessible health care to all our citizens. That’s good. We need that. But urban and labor activists tend to work on the ground in communities of need. They are focused on giving people help right now, not on winning some epic ideological battle in Washington DC. Their idea of progress is much more mundane. Can they help Mrs. Smith keep her house? Can they can get Mr. Jones the dialysis treatment he needs? What can they do about these payday lenders? Can they negotiate slightly more pay or better benefits for their workers?
So, when it comes to something like the health care bill, you’ll see academic progressives throwing up their hands and saying that no bill should be passed if it doesn’t do x,y, and z. And they have solid reasons for saying that, reasons that are substantive both politically and policy-wise. And then you’ll see a lot of urban progressives looking at them quizzically, asking “are you out of your ever-loving tree?”
The more you’ve worked on the ground in urban or labor activism, the less likely you are to cut off your nose to spite your face. If a bill can make health care available to all the diabetes patients you know, you’re not going to worry about its lack of cost containment or the private/public balance of the insurance providers.
What concerns me is less the imperfection of the Senate bill than the politically foolish and dangerous idea of mandating that people buy private insurance. Because I am going to honest with you. I have progressive goals, but I think the most important issue facing our world right now is not terrorism or climate change or health care, but the dangerous insanity of America’s Republican Party. And I don’t support doing things, however high-minded, that will put us at risk of seeing them back in power. From that standpoint, I am totally conservative. I will eat a lot of shit to save or even grow our majorities. So, my problem with the bill is not so much that it is a missed opportunity to destroy the private insurance industry or that it doesn’t contain costs enough or any other particular feature. The bill will still help millions of people. My problem is that it is not going to be popular and you’ll see people voting Republican as a result. And that is not something humanity can afford, because a revitalized GOP that isn’t purged of its current Teabagging Palinism is very dangerous indeed.
Massachusetts: Mandate; no public option, save an exchange of private vendors; penalties for non-purchase taken at tax time at 1/2 of the cost of the basic policy. 100% subsidy to 150% FPL. 300% FPL subsidy cap. Passed in 2006
Political changes in the meantime: House — still Democratic. Senate — still Democratic. State House — Flipped, Republican to Democratic.
Jails — not full of protesters,
Polling support for repeal in 9/09 — 11%.
It’s weak sauce. Not sure why the the online left keeps using it. Maybe because they also lean more libertarian than the average Democrat?
It’s interesting that the dire political price we keep on hearing a purchase mandate will have has failed so far to materialize in the only place where it could reasonably be expected to appear.
Look, I’m a card-carrying Socialist. I’m an NHS-USA guy. I’m a public school teacher, and I think a parallel system, a la the UK, would be the best and cheapest way to deliver health care.
But I can count votes, I can read the papers, and I’m fifty-two and have four pre-existing conditions. Thank God I have good group insurance, but I’d be dead in six months, bankrupt in three, if I weren’t.
Unrelated query — Would ‘Kill the Bill’ be as popular as it is, if it didn’t rhyme?
yeh, slogan evokes the movie, ppl think the consequences are only screen
good that I haven’t succumbed to the temptation of proofreading yet
Funny thing — Mittens Romney would disown any semblance of this plan today to appease the wingnuts, even though he happens to be the one that signed it into law with a shit-eating grin on his face. Not sure how this inconvenient reality gets by the teabagger mob…
Also, the Mass plan (Romney-Care, anyone?) didn’t seem to do much in the way of cost controls. Any plan there to address that?
Mass. is examining bailing on fee-for service and switching to capitation payments.
I’ll just say it again: the entire thing with the mandates surviving public approval rests on the subsidies and the help provided middle class and upper class families. Mandating that insurance companies spend 90% of their dollars on care would have gone a long way to making insurance mandates w/subsidies bearable.
I’m hoping this is the line that the house will take and that senators, seeing the political reality, will follow suite. Olympia Snowe has actually been talking about that throughout the Fiance Commitee markup. Another good reason to go for her over Nelson and try for Collins to cut out Lieberman.
I think you’re oversimplifying. Yes, the cost of insurance is a hugely important component, but so is what they’re buying. The mandated insurance policies are not very good – they cover 60-70% of health costs, depending on the version of the bill.
In other words, the expensive insurance is not going to leave people at risk of very high out-of-pocket costs for care and medical bankruptcy. I think that’s eventually going to sink in.
BTW, did the 90% requirement get stripped from the Senate compromise? Hard to keep track these days.
People have much higher expectations than that. If it’s what the Dems deliver they’ll pay a huge price and become impotent for the rest of Obama’s term, at least.
Has Obama actually done anything to grow the majority? This is not his focus at least to me. I didn’t really think he’d be a progressive champion or even much of a fighter. I prefer Howard Dean to 10 Obamas.
But I thought he would at least party build but that seems to be a mistake.
It’s embarrassing to be known as a dem.
The vice Obama is in is hard to deal with. How do you sustain unanimity in your caucus without demoralizing the left?
maybe by doing the same thing to centrists and conservatives that he did to progressives on war funding:
(paraphrased from here.)
or is that just for progressives? just askin’.
Yeah, but that doesn’t work. Show me the senator who really needs money from the DSCC. You can’t mess with senators like that. Haven’t you noticed that Lieberman can pretty much do whatever he wants without consequences? If he were in the House, that would never happen.
Where were they on that Stupak thing though? You’d think they would push a bit on that. Maybe they figured they didn’t need to because the senate would kill it…
…but when even Matt Yglesias thinks you need to take a stand on something, well you’d better take a long hard look at yourself.
My latest email from DFA was “No Option? No mandate!”.
The Republican Party can count on the Purist Left to always insist on one more defeat so that NEXT time we can win everything.
“If a bill can make health care available to all the diabetes patients you know, you’re not going to worry about its lack of cost containment or the private/public balance of the insurance providers.”
Aren’t you kind of making straw men here? The issue is not some bureaucratic or politiical nicety. If there’s no cost containment and no real competition those diabetes patients won’t be able to afford it, so it’s not available. I guess it’s nice that middle managers and such might be able to get treatment, but they mostly always could. If the people who can’t afford it now still can’t afford it after the bill becomes law, treatment is still not available to them, and they’re precisely the ones the reform was supposed to help.
As to your larger point, is it really clear that the bill will help millions of people? Hard to tell. It would be good to see details, if you have them at hand.
You’re absolutely right that mandates without affordability have the potential to destroy Dem majorities. I have some hope that the current mess will not stand simply because the pols just can’t be unaware of the consequences to their own futures. I think the biggest danger is that the Dems try to sell whatever weak tea emerges as a victory for health care reform. If they play it right as one step wrested from the greedy paws of insurancecos and their lackeys, one that opens the door to ongoing improvement IF they maintain/grow their majority, the outcome could even help their electoral prospects. I wish I had more faith that they will forgo the temptation to pretend they got exactly what they wanted, which will direct the public anger right back at them instead of where it belongs.
I’ve held onto my trust in Obama through all the disappointments. He’s done the “reaching out” and “bipartisanship” and proven that it doesn’t work. If he doesn’t now give it up and start playing hardball he’ll be a one-term president, and deservedly so. He says there is evil in the world. There’s evil right here in America, right in Congress, too, and he’d better start naming it and confronting it from this day forward.
To be clear, Dave, I am not saying that urban progressives are always right and academic progressive are always wrong. Far from it. What I am saying is that you will have to look pretty hard to kind urban activists who agree with Howard Dean, FDL, and Glenn Greenwald that we should now work with the Republicans to kill the president’s number one priority.
And the reason is that they are more concerned about helping people who need help right now than they are with winning an ideological battle or (in my case) winning future elections. It’s an explanation of why people don’t see eye-to-eye.
Movement conservatives have “hacked” the American political system by first taking over the center-right party that will always exist alongside a center-left party in our two party system. Then using all the procedural and institutional powers available to that party, whether its in the majority or minority to effect its agenda.
But our agenda can’t just reduce to ways to keep the GOP out of power. In this case, the best defense is a good offense- passing legislation that helps out ordinary americans. Obama and the Congressional leadership need to fight, yes fight, anyone who stands in their way of accomplishing that. The most powerful argument in favor of killing the bill by progressives is that this bill, as currently crafted, is a net negative for ordinary americans. If it is, don’t pass it because it will hurt, not help, politically down the road.
Where Obama loses me is when he twists progressives arms before using every carrot and stick he has against Lieberman and the other 5 Senate dems who are bargaining in potentially bad faith. A lot of this carrot/stick stuff goes on behind closed doors and is never made public, so its difficult to be sure whether Joe was given a wringing by Reid and Obama and still decided he wanted to go the way he did. I suspect not though. In fact the only “hardball” we’ve seen is Rahm’s support of primary challengers to progressives. Why isn’t Rahm throwing his support or threatening to throw his support to a potential challenger of Blanche Lincoln? Did they try that and she still dug in her heals? There’s a lot we don’t know but the signals being sent are not encouraging.
There is a precedent for that (emphasis mine):
But I’m really not advocating for a particular strategy. I’m not an insider and I know that in reality I know very little of the politics of arm twisting each Senator. But Obama controls (i) an entire branch of government, including EVERY regulatory agency, the military and directs our foreign policy. He controls literally thousands of patronage positions. He is also the leader of the democratic party. These Senators can’t get their jobs done and get reelected without working effectively with the executive branch. They certainly cannot get re-elected without the support of the party and all its related institutions, such as its donor network, pollsters, advisors, etc. Do you honestly believe Obama couldn’t get Landreau’s or Nelson’s vote if he wanted it? Rahm’s job (not mine or ours) is to decide which carrots and sticks to use on whomever Obama asks get their arm twisted. There’s only two possible conclusions from recent events: (1) Obama didn’t ask him to use those carrots and sticks against the conservative members of the caucus or (2) he did and Rahm failed at his job. If its the former we should stop thinking of Obama as an ally. If its the latter, Obama should consider replacing Rahm because he’s not effective at his job.
The answer is ‘no,’ I don’t think 60 votes were gettable for a robust public option, no matter what Obama did. A triggered public option not tied to Medicare rates was gettable. The failure to get it can laid at the feet of the procedural decision not to offer it in the base bill. And the fault for that has to be shared broadly from Reid who made the decision, to the White House that reluctantly signed off on it, to the leaders of progressive opinion, who made it a litmus test and started running ads against Reid in Nevada.
Thanks for helpful post and thanks everyone for constructive discussion thread. Have been totally lost trying to understand the fracturing of progressive blogistan – your analysis, Boo, makes lots of sense.
And its your powerful insights on the strategy of gaming when to put in vs take out the public option that’s made me come to this site daily. But while the progressive institutions and its leaders made some mistakes, it was progressive institutions such as the netroots that fought back over the summer when the shock troops of the GOP attacked it and the establishment media declared the public option and potentially HCR overall dead in the water. The leadership of progressive institutions such as the netroots aren’t supposed to work hand in glove with Reid and Obama. And if Reid and Obama wants us on board, I don’t think Markos or Josh Marshall is going to refuse a call from Obama asking for their help. The netroots did what they should do: push for progressive change that helps ordinary americans, using every option they have available to them. In hindsight were some of those tactics counterproductive? No doubt, and you’ve done a great job chronicling those failures so we learn from them in the future (note to self, don’t go after Joementum’s family). But I think Obama’s legislative team and Reid deserve the lion’s share of the blame if what eventually gets passed is a net negative for ordinary americans. Bush managed to pass some pretty unpopular, controversial stuff through much weaker margins in Congress. If Obama’s legislative team and Reid can’t get generally popular much needed legislation, then they need to be replaced, plain and simple.
… “But I think Obama’s legislative team and Reid deserve the lion’s share of the blame if what eventually gets passed is a net negative for ordinary americans. ” …
Of course they shall deserve the blame if things go that way–as it seems they shall.
“If Obama’s legislative team and Reid can’t get generally popular much needed legislation, then they need to be replaced, plain and simple.”
Yes—and while on one hand that’s true, on the other hand, there’s no really meaningful way to “replace” them. That’s because they are what the pitiful political system “offers” and produces, even when it’s thought to do something even slightly good for a change. How and by whom would they be replaced if not simply others who are essentially more of the same?
Replace the white house legislative liasons. he can hire and fire those guys at will. And the dem caucus can fire reid and hire Durbin.
But he won’t do that; nor shall the Dem caucus touch a hair of Harry Reid’s wittle head.
That is where we are, you see?
But that’s not worth getting. Seriously. 1) The triggers are all designed not to trigger, and 2) With no cost control, the public option would be more expensive and therefore less useful.
Honestly, I’d rather have nothing – no trigger, no co-ops, no state-based plans, no special plans competing separately from the main exchange – than something that will be ineffective, further complicate the system, and serve as “proof” that Democrats and the government can’t do health care right.
If we get nothing and insurance is too expensive, the political pressure will build to do something about it. Why create a mess in the meantime?
There’s got to be a public-policy equivalent to the old Wall Street adage “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Politically, the pressure will be to forget this damn liberal bullshit and unleash the free market. The insurancecos will promise the moon if only they’re freed from bureaucratic interference. Dem bumbling (and that’s how it will be sold) makes them the useless staus quo and the teabaggers the fighters for change. If they can pull something of value out of the mess they may buy time to do something better later. If not, they’re done. Unless you’re Bush, you don’t get a second chance after you fail.
The insurance companies will never be popular. If they’re charging more than people can pay and people are forced to buy from them, the insurance companies will be even less popular. There will be space for an anti-insurance company campaign any time.
However, if Dems create some complex disaster of an alternative to insurance companies, it will be “proof” that Dems have no better solution, and look what they did last time they tried.
Better to give the insurance companies enough rope to hang themselves and they will.
“The answer is ‘no,’ I don’t think 60 votes were gettable for a robust public option, no matter what Obama did.”
Well! That’s a hell of a note to sound now!
Wow! Now you tell us! Fascinating, that is! And interesting. Then, all along, the administration (not to mention you) has been leading gullible, naïve progressives to believe, on occasions on and off, that this very thing, a public option, so hoped for and talked about was simply not possible, no matter what the president and his men and women might have done.
I wonder just when you came to this rather startling view. It looks to me like (another) one of your attempts (more and more frequent) to simply let yourself and the administration off the hook for the prognostications made and the (apparently false) hopes raised.
Obama has treated the public as though they’re irrelevant to the political processes—except when he’s busy exhorting them to vote for him—and that keeping them informed in a full and timely manner isn’t important. Though he sometimes seems to make a show of wanting to inform the public, for me, his efforts are a pathetic joke.
If the public option was, from the start, impossible to obtain, then the president should have made a major point of explaining that very clearly to the American people in a major address. He should have gone to the public and said something like,
‘I have to inform you that nothing like the single-payer public universal health-care that the overwhelming majority of you have so long and desperately wanted and needed is possible under the political circumstances which prevail. It’s my duty to tell you why that is and it is of the utmost importance that you listen and understand—because your understanding and your help are essential if there is to be any change in the circumstances which now block the passage of so many important reforms.’
Gee, the public option was a gonner from the start! You knew that, we now learn, but decided only now to let us in on it?
I meant, of course,
“Then, all along, the administration (not to mention you) has been leading gullible, naïve progressives to believe, on occasions on and off, that this very thing, a public option, so hoped for and talked about was within sight, within reach, possible, and, then, suddenly, by the hand of Senate majority leader Reid, inserted into the Senate’s version, but, instead, actually and simply not possible, no matter what the president and his men and women might have done.”
what did I tell people?
I told them that the administration was trying to get a PO passed, but they didn’t have the votes to do it in regular order and therefore were not pushing it too hard because that would set themselves up for failure. I told people that the only way to get a PO (even in theory) was to pass a strong one in the House and then try to win a weak one in a compromise with the Senate. I never guaranteed it would work, but told people that only by pushing it at the moment of maximum leverage could they avoid it being picked apart by centrists who could oppose the PO without opposing the bill itself. I told people that the key was to get to the Conference Committee and not allow the bill to stall in the Finance Committee or in the Senate.
That doesn’t contradict what I am saying now. Only now I have the benefit of seeing what happened and who did what. In retrospect, we could have had Snowe’s triggered public option if we had been willing to compromise on that in the base bill. With her vote in hand, we wouldn’t have Lieberman throw a fit because his vote wouldn’t matter. And with a triggered PO in hand to go to conference, we might have wound up with a slightly better bill in the compromise.
Mandates, regulation (crippled),
Result: Only republicans hate it.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/12/17/815688/-Insurance-mandates-are-good:-see-Massachusetts