I don’t live in Nevada so I don’t know precisely why the elecorate there is so sour on Harry Reid that they say they’ll vote for virtually anyone other than him. I do know that some recent polling showed that alternative Democrats (other than Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman) fared no better, so it can’t be just about Harry Reid. Something about the Democratic Party is pissing Nevadans off, and I haven’t seen any polling that helps explain what that something is or how it might be addressed. This phenomenon isn’t isolated in Nevada either. Polling is bad for Democrats all over the country, even as the people consistently say that they like the Democrats better than the Republicans. Absent some precise information to explain this, I’m stuck postulating that it is a generalized anti-incumbent mood that strikes first at those with the most power.
In other words, incumbent Republicans shouldn’t get too comfortable, especially those few Republicans perceived to have some influence on national affairs.
I don’t live in Nevada so I don’t know precisely why the elecorate there is so sour on Harry Reid that they say they’ll vote for virtually anyone other than him.
And don’t forget, those numbers haven’t moved after Reid has spent a ton(for this stage) of dough on commercials trying to remind Nevada residents that he can bring home the bacon.
The national polls I’ve seen are not good for the Democrats but are worse for Republicans. There is an anti-incumbent mood in the electorate but as we move closer to November the down side for the Republicans will become more evident – especially if they keep up their obstructionist stand.
In PA Toomy – very conservative Republican – has a lead over Spector – but Sestak is making a good run at Spector for the Democratic nod. Sestak just got endorced by Ed Lamont who defeated Lieberman in the CT democratic primary and has 4.5 million left over from his house race. Polls show a majority are undecided in the primary.
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Harry Reid is in a position of Congressional leadership and gets rightly the blame for many failures. He didn’t get the HCR job done and unemployment still at 10%.
Rating is worst in R-J’s surveys for 2010 election
Independent voters could be a major factor in the general election.
In each of the three Reid-GOP matchups polled, for example, the senator would get only about one-quarter of the independent vote, according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll. The three potential Republican opponents would get more than half the independent voters’ support if the race against Reid were held today: Lowden (59 percent), Tarkanian (56 percent) and Angle (53 percent).
Peplowski, the political science professor, said the independent voters will break in November for whichever political party or candidate makes the strongest case — or they’ll stay home. In the past couple of elections, non-partisan voters helped the Democrats win the White House and Congress, but now they’ve been disenchanted and are leaning more toward Republicans.
“The Republicans have got to move into the middle to get them to the polls,” Peplowski said.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Don’t forget Nevada(with Florida and California) was/is ground zero of the housing meltdown
Is it possible to ask just who would replace Ried as majority leader in the Senate? Just curious, as I do hope that he pulls this one out.
I think it would go to Dick Durbin if Reid loses.
I think Reid will get re-elected, despite what people are saying in the polls.
Either Durbin or Schumer would get it .. and why do you hope Reid wins?
I think in the case of Dems, it’s the opposite of too much power. I think it’s seeing them with all the trappings of power, yet dithering and losing and getting nothing done. So in Nevada you have the usual roboReps yapping to end government coupled with Dems and indies seeing that after all they hype, change isn’t happening. Actually quite a lot has gotten done, but either it’s not every-day obvious or the Dems have, as usual failed to communicate it.
I still think the Dems will look much better by election day and results won’t be as bad as predicted now, though it may be too late for Reid. But then I was sure MA wouldn’t fill Kennedy’s seat with a Cosmo bunny.
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To FDR’s first 100 days.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Besides Reid’s own relative incompetency? (I say “relative” because in terms of the majority of the losers in the Senate and Congress, he is a whirlwind of ability and achievement.)
It’s the “throw da bums out” thing.
Growing ever stronger and ever more dangerous.
Dangerous?
Yes.
Why?
Because it is becoming a feedback system. Ever louder until it breaks the speakers.
Hoiw does an acoustic feedback system work?
Sound comes out of something…whatever. The principal’s mouth, a screaming guitar, etc. It goes into a mic and is amplified, then plays back through the speakers. Now the amplified sound goes into the same mic and is amplified once again. Eventually…and it makes no difference whatsoever regarding how good the original content of that sound may or may not be…eventually it becomes a self-replicating loop and breaks the sound system unless it is stopped somewhere along the line.
The media are our mics and amplifiers. Now that things are getting really…uncomfortable…here, no effort that is made to fix the real problems will work as anything other than more noise for the feedback loop.
The inevitable result unless proper measures are taken?
Bet on it.
Proper measures?
The only ones that I can recommend in good conscience are the following:
The media are certainly not gong to turn themselves off. Too much money to be made; too many debts to be paid.
It’s up to us.
Goddammit. (I do keep trying.)
Later…
AG
Was it even a month ago that we were saying that the Cook projection of a 50% chance of the Democrats losing five seats was out of line? I think Democrats would be relieved now if they lost only five seats in the Senate.
It shouldn’t have been that way. The map lines up well for the Democrats. They only had to defend two seats, I think, in states that McCain carried. Those two seats (North Dakota and Arkansas) are probably lost already. As is Nevada. Colorado and Delaware aren’t looking good, so there are the five Republican pickups.
Add in tossups in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois and things are looking pretty brutal. Then, do you suppose there might be some corporate money in ads opposing Boxer? How about Feingold? We are staring into the jaws of a Republican Senate a year from now.
So, you say this is an anti-incumbent year and it works against Republicans as well as Democrats. I don’t see it. I don’t see any Republican around the country who might lose his or her job to a Democrat (there are some who might lose primaries to Tea Party types). The Texas governor race, perhaps, although I think it’s a long shot.
I don’t even see a silver lining anywhere here.
Send up a series of very, very short bills. Break Health Care into a dozen short bills: no pre-existing conditions, no dropping folks, exchange with public option, no anti-trust exemption…
Then have an up/down vote on each of these. Yes, Harry, you can do this by simply requiring REAL filibusters.
Here comes Move-on: a billboard in every swing district with checklists on how the Republican voted.
The problem here is A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE.