Polls this far out from the 2012 presidential election mean very little, but it’s instructive to look at what CNN found in the current state of play:
The poll shows Obama topping Romney 53 percent to 45 percent, beating Huckabee 54 percent to 45 percent, defeating Gingrich 55 percent to 43 percent and topping Palin 55 percent to 42.
Obama beat McCain 52.9% to 45.7%, or about exactly the same drubbing he’s predicted to give to Mitt Romney. The anticipated destruction of a Palin candidacy begins to approach the the 58.8%-40.6% beatdown that St. Ronnie administered to Walter Mondale in 1984.
If Obama actually won 55% or more of the popular vote, he’d probably have very significant coattails. And I think we need to remind ourselves that these numbers are coming in the context of a pretty negative overall public attitude to the Democrats as a whole. Some recent polling has showed a congressional ballot preference for the Republicans and (some) net-negative ratings for Obama’s job approval. We have to wonder how Palin would fare against a resurgent president and Democratic Party. I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine a Reagan-Mondale style blowout.
It’s an odd political climate. It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen before.
the thing about Caribou Barbie – her gender gap is with WOMEN.
it is WOMEN who have had her number from day ONE.
minority women have known mediocre, less-talented White women who skated their entire lives on their looks.
Sarah Palin is a sneering ‘ Miss Anne’.
as for the White female population, they have the stab wounds on their backs when they trusted their own ‘ Sarah Palins’.
they’ve never forgotten that, and they’re not about to reward one with the White House.
add into it that women are naturally harder on one another than any man could be…
THAT is her mountain to cover…over all those skeptical women.
Also add that older white women see younger pretty white women as rivals, not friends.
But most of all, Palin’s admirers are blinded by testosterone.
She’s just not that blinding. Her admirers are blinded by hype, just like they are with everything else. Like the old song explained, gotta like boobs a lot.
I thought she has pretty good legs, but that nose belongs in a Grimm Brothers fairy tale. Besides, to me, a woman with the brain of a chicken is a real turn off. But to lots of guys that’s OK, maybe even preferable.
Yeah, pretty good, like millions of others and almost every entertainment figure. She’s not special. If she was walking unrecognized down Michigan Ave in Chicago she’d barely get a second glance. Once she was recognized she’d have the manly men all creaming their designer jeans.
It’s kind of like the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue: other than pubescent boys, nobody really gives a shit, but you have to put on a show of manic excitement so you can be one of the real men. The life of the American male is not nearly as gratifying as a lot of women seem to think.
At least not the life of this American male! š
Yeah… I wonder if after 2012 we don’t have a shot at even bigger Congressional margins than currently exist.
Just a guess, but I imagine part of Obama’s support comes from the “W” effect: moderates who—after living through eight years of the Bush/Cheney administration—are so relieved to have a calm, mature, thoughtful, respectful president that they’re sticking with Obama despite 10% unemployment.
I think that’s a lot of it. The contrast is stunning when you stop and think. To all but the most racist core of the GOP, it still feels amazing to have a president who isn’t an ongoing national humiliation.
I hope Palin receives the Republican nomination in 2012. I think she will introduce the GOP to political armageddon and that the Democrats will pick up even larger majorities in the Senate and House. Hmmm—time for a public option and other health reforms. Nothing like rank incompetency to galvanize the Independents. Go Sarah, go!
Got to get rid of the LieberDems first.
Yes, by all means, the LieberDems must go. They too belong on the ash heap of history.
Odd political climate intensified by the media’s advocating against Obama and exaggerating the tea party base/ impact. especially on health care – ok there are the misguided and the astroturfers, but the wealthy aside, most united statesians were suffering at the hands of the insurance cos. nice to see the repubs have decided protecting wall street vs. consumers is the route to take.
A co-worker approached me yesterday, recruiting for the Tea Party. I told him, “No thanks, I don’t agree with them.” On further discussion, I told him that I don’t believe in small government, I believe in big government, which shocked him. I told him there was a role for government in providing public goods and protecting the public from banksters and other international mega-corporations. However, I did agree that there was a line too far in both ownership and personal privacy rights.
I may have opened a line of dialog.
that’s just great. it’s truly unconscionable (but what else is new) how those behind the astroturfing take advantage of people afraid to lose what few benefits they have (medicare, use of national parks for affordable vacations, for example)
Right wingers are still shouting on TV about Socialist takeover of Health Care, Government standing between you and your doctor, IRS enforcing the health care mandate. There is not one word of correction or balance. I think the DNC should take out some ads, correcting this, answering these dumb points and pointing out the truth. That makes more sense than dumping money into Blanche Lincoln’s or Arlen Specter’s campaign.
Agree, and I’m sick of the scare-mongering fundraising attempts by dem orgs. I know the republicans want to take away what little most of us have in terms of rights and benefits. I will respond much better to some advertising about what Obama admin has accomplished so far and how that can be the basis for more accomplishments.
Why do you say that the political environment is odd?
Folks have generally cut the president a lot of slack and hated Congress.
If it’s “morning in America” in 2012, it will be a Reagan-Mondale style blowout.
The amazing forced party unity of the Republican Party means that when voters hate the GOP, they hate every member of the GOP including Mitt Romney and John McCain and Mike Huckabee.
But I would be curious about the state distribution of those margins. A 90% margin in California does not help if you have lost states you gained in 2008. Of particular concern in Tim Kaine’s screw-up in Virginia; maybe in two years that won’t look a brilliant move on the part of Pat Robertson Republicans. Also worrying are state legislators, like in Oklahoma, who are running off the rails.
The Rep led extremists are about to learn a lesson. The fire and passion that these extremists have brought to newscycle is reminding America’s center and left just how much they love this country and can now palpably feel her endangered. Where too many from left may have stayed home in November, it’s being driven home what the consequences will mean if one stays home. Backlash she be a comin’
“It’s an odd political climate. It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen before.”
It’s always an odd political climate in this weirdass country. What exactly haven’t you see before?
There are some fascinating details in the poll. Obama’s favorability comes in at 57-41, which is better than even the Kos poll is finding, and despite all the attacks still significantly ahead of his election numbers. Of the 8 politicians and 2 parties polled about, he and Hillary are the only ones to break 50% favorability.
By 69 – 30, respondents think Palin is unqualified to be president, yet 42% would vote for her against Obama — approximately the same percent that would vote for Huckabee, Romney, or Gingrich. The only conclusion I can think of is that a lot of Republicans are operating strictly on hating Obama and the Dems, to the point that they would vote for somebody they believe is unqualified rather than Obama.
Everybody knows about Obama, Hillary, and Palin, but 12-14 percent of Americans have still never heard of Romney, Huckabee, or Gingrich, and 20% have never heard of Reid (as opposed to 8% for Pelosi). Yet they all have opinions about who they’d vote for.
The best news for Dems, and probably the least volatile, is that 50% would vote for a Dem in their own congressional district, against 45% for a Republican. This marks the first time that the Dems have shown a lead on this question since last November. Despite all the media CW about the anti-incumbency surge, only 4% would vote for neither party’s candidate, down from 7% in November.
It’s only a poll, and only one poll, and it’s early, but it does provide one reality you can take to the bank: the prognostications about the national mood we get from the pundits are sheer, total, bullshit.