Polls this far out from the 2012 presidential election mean very little, but it’s instructive to look at what CNN found in the current state of play:
The poll shows Obama topping Romney 53 percent to 45 percent, beating Huckabee 54 percent to 45 percent, defeating Gingrich 55 percent to 43 percent and topping Palin 55 percent to 42.
Obama beat McCain 52.9% to 45.7%, or about exactly the same drubbing he’s predicted to give to Mitt Romney. The anticipated destruction of a Palin candidacy begins to approach the the 58.8%-40.6% beatdown that St. Ronnie administered to Walter Mondale in 1984.
If Obama actually won 55% or more of the popular vote, he’d probably have very significant coattails. And I think we need to remind ourselves that these numbers are coming in the context of a pretty negative overall public attitude to the Democrats as a whole. Some recent polling has showed a congressional ballot preference for the Republicans and (some) net-negative ratings for Obama’s job approval. We have to wonder how Palin would fare against a resurgent president and Democratic Party. I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine a Reagan-Mondale style blowout.
It’s an odd political climate. It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen before.