If it’s true that the president is going to move to immigration reform about a month from now, then things are about to get crazier than we’ve ever seen them, and where it all shakes out for the Democrats is anybody’s guess. My instincts tell me that this is a bridge too far. I don’t think Obama can get any immigration bill passed right now. I don’t think too many Democrats want any part of an immigration fight with their polling numbers looking historically bad. And I don’t think the Tea Partiers will be able to avoid having their heads explode.
However, the Republicans cannot afford to alienate the Latino community and still expect to win statewide and national elections in this country in the coming decades. The sensible (few) among them know this, but they have no control over the majority or the rabidly racist base of their party. Any immigration debate is going to do severe damage to the Republican Party and open all kind of internal strife.
Whether reforms pass or fail, the mere attempt in this political climate is likely to take a wrecking ball to Congress. Where all the pieces land is impossible to predict.
On the upside, this will be a major promise that Obama keeps. The Democrats will be rewarded with continued and increasing loyalty from the Latino community. Even if I think Obama is crazy to think he can pass reforms in the remainder of this Congress, we do desperately need to pass them soon. And the next Congress isn’t likely to be easier. So, fasten your chin straps. This is gonna be rough. It’s the right thing to do. But it isn’t what I would call ‘prudent.’