You know a party is in trouble when their incumbent senators are looking vulnerable. That is not the case for the Republicans.
Of the eleven incumbents they have facing reelection, only three are showing any vulnerability at all. John McCain of Arizona is struggling to keep distance between himself and primary challenger J.D. Hayworth. Chuck Grassley of Iowa has some anemic polling numbers against Roxanne Conlin. The most endangered Republican, Richard Burr of North Carolina, is looking vulnerable to either Cal Cunningham or Elaine Marshall. Any trouble that might be waiting for diaper-wearing David Vitter of Louisiana is strictly theoretical at this point.
And there is no sign of trouble yet for Sens. Richard Shelby of Alabama, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Johnny Isakson of Georgia, Mike Crapo of Idaho, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, or John Thune of South Dakota.
There were never going to be a whole lot of pick-up opportunities for the Democrats to challenge incumbents in this cycle, but you have to be unimpressed with the job DSCC chairman Bob Menendez did recruiting. Are we prepared to exploit it if J.D. Hayworth upsets McCain? The DSCC candidate in North Carolina came in second in the primary and is now campaigning in a run-off against Elaine Marshall instead of against Richard Burr. I don’t even know if we have candidates in Alaska, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Idaho. What if the Republican gets caught foot-tapping in an airport bathroom? There will definitely be no Democrat on the ballot in South Dakota because the filing deadline came and went. The only success Menendez had in recruiting against incumbents was getting Über-Blue Dog Rep. Charlie Melancon to drag his anti-choice ass out of the House and challenge the whore-loving family values man David Vitter. That’s pretty hard for me to get excited about.
No, the real action is going to in open seats. If the Democrats can win in New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, and either win with Meek in Florida or get Crist to caucus with them, then they could actually increase their majority in the Senate, depending on what happens in other races.
It’s a tough election cycle, but we can still do well on the Senate side. With better recruitment, our chances would be better.
Boo Man
I’m less concerned about politics and more worried about the issues facing us. Let’s make some progress.
yeah right! But we still need political analysis
And there is no sign of trouble yet for Sens. Richard Shelby of Alabama, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Johnny Isakson of Georgia, Mike Crapo of Idaho, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, or John Thune of South Dakota.
And what’s the state of the Democratic Party in each of these states? I’d guess not very good.
Alabama Democrats are in disarray.
Georgia Democrats are beginning to rebuild.
South Carolina Democrats have been given the gift of Mark Sanford and the Tea Party division of the Republican Party, but can they capitalize on those?
South Dakota Democrats are leaving Thune unchallenged.
Idaho has Democrats? Who knew?
Alabama Democrats are in disarray.
Are there any Democrats in Alabama other than Blue Dogs?
Georgia Democrats are beginning to rebuild.
Same question as above. Adding, are there any to the slightest left of the Blue Dogs?
South Carolina Democrats have been given the gift of Mark Sanford and the Tea Party division of the Republican Party, but can they capitalize on those?
Same question as Georgia.
South Dakota Democrats are leaving Thune unchallenged.
Are Democrats afraid to speak up in any of these states? They can’t even get some state Senator or Rep. to run for name recognition down the line?
Idaho has Democrats? Who knew?
It’s been a big fall from Frank Church. What has happened since then?
It’s not an election cycle where they should have been worried in the first place. They’ve established the party as a regional party, and no amount of incumbent fever is going to toss out a Republican in Utah. As a matter of fact, the more Obama’s numbers go down in states like Utah, the better we are doing.
Still, I’d like the DSCC to have someone ready in Arizona, possibly even Georgia. Ideally they’d be ready everywhere, but resources are not infinite. Arizona is a possible pick-up if McCain loses. Why we aren’t focused on it is beyond me. Hell, back in October, polls were showing Gramps losing ground so fast that by November I wasn’t sure if he’d be able to hang on in his home state.
I think David Vitter could lose. I don’t think he’s as safe as everyone’s making him out to be.
Resources might not be infinite, but they are elastic depending on how much excitement a candidate can build and motivate contributions. However, the Democratic bench is not big on excitement at the moment.
In fact, I have a hard time figuring out who would run to succeed Obama in 2016, assuming he has two terms. That’s how dour the field looks.
I suspect Mark Warner.
Or if he’s up for it, Russ Feingold.
Do you really think people are going to be excited by another DLC type at this point?
It’s a common fantasy of mine to think about what Howard Dean could have done, in terms of party-building, with the OFA email list at his disposal at the DNC. I have no doubt in my mind that we would be looking at a much better fall election cycle if he had been at the helm instead of Tim Kaine.
Right now, we’re banking on everyone still hating the GOP and the money gap. Both are looking to be good advantages, sure, but if no one is running and there’s no compotent Dem party in the state…it goes to waste.
Despite what Dean did, plenty of state parties are a mess or in disarray.