One thing I’ve learned about the progressive movement (the white part of it, anyway) over the last three years is that it is very thin-skinned, tends to demand respect it hasn’t earned, and refuses to have realistic expectations. It also has a very myopic view that focuses entirely on their agenda and almost not at all on the gorilla in the room, which is the alternative to our current center-left coalition. Given the current state of the Republican Party, which is focused on seceding from the union, using the tenth amendment to invalidate most federal legislation, birth certificates, race-baiting, onerous legislation against undocumented workers, passing state laws to restrict access to abortion, privatizing Social Security, repealing health care reform, weakening the United Nations, and obliterating Iran, it is crazy to allow one’s movement to get into an adversarial position vis-a-vis the Obama administration.
This will inevitably be read by most as a call for people to shut up and sit down and get with the program. It’s not. There are ways to balance things so that you both push the administration to pursue the reforms you seek and protect them so that we won’t be seeing a Majority Leader McConnell, a Speaker Boehner, or a President Romney. Consider the recent example discussed here by Katrina vanden Heuvel.
The thinking is that if progressives organize independently and forge smart coalitions, building a mass movement for reform with a moral compass that can transcend left-right divisions, we may be able to push Obama beyond the limits of his own politics, overcome the timid incrementalism of the establishment Democratic Party and counter the forces of money and power that are true obstacles to change. As Arianna Huffington has said, “Hope is not enough. . . . We need a ‘Hope 2.0’ that depends not on what President Obama or other politicians say or do but on what we as progressives do.”
That’s what key progressive groups — Labor, netroots activists and others — were trying to do in supporting a primary challenger to Democratic Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln. But the Obama administration, which had endorsed Lincoln, apparently misinterpreted the progressive position as a threat from its base.
Not really. This is the thin-skinned part. The parties are built to protect their incumbents. That’s why incumbents are expected to raise tens or even hundreds of thousand of dollars for the party’s committees. The administration would very much enjoy having a senator who bucks their program replaced by a senator who supports it, but they can’t side against an incumbent (except in extreme circumstances) because the Senate is made up of 59 Democratic-caucusing incumbents. Once they cross one of them, they’ve lost the trust of most of them. Vanden Heuvel misses the irony in this.
And after Lincoln prevailed (with massive aid from establishment Democrats), anonymous White House operatives called reporters to trash organized labor for flushing “$10 million of their members’ money down the toilet on a pointless exercise.”
Actually, the point of the exercise was that those opposing Obama’s reform agenda will not get a free pass. And there will be more efforts like it. To name a few: Labor will continue to devote resources to accountability primaries in several states this year, MoveOn will be campaigning to counter corporate influence, and the NAACP, SEIU and the Center for Community Change are organizing a march for jobs in October.
The White House would obviously welcome outside enforcers who make wayward Democrats support their reform agenda because that is a job they cannot do very well themselves. The difference of opinion was merely over the allocation of resources. If Bill Halter wasn’t going to win in the general either, and actually wasn’t much more progressive anyway, then why blow ten million bucks on the race? Here’s Nate Silver, back in March:
In summary, this is not a terribly good place for an ideological primary challenge. There’s not much room to Lincoln’s left in Arkansas period, especially not in a cycle such as this one. She has voted with her caucus reasonably often — more so than someone like Ben Nelson or Evan Bayh. And the challenger, Bill Halter, is quite unlikely to win the general election.
The thing about this particular primary challenge, however, is that while the upside might be limited, the same is true of the downside because Lincoln is so unlikely to retain her seat anyway. Halter is clearly a smart (he’s a Rhodes Scholar) and likable candidate and I can see why people would want to take a chance on him. But at best, this is perhaps the right challenge for the wrong reasons — and at worst, it’s a misdirection of resources that could be better spent elsewhere.
Now, I disagreed with Nate about the virtues of challenging Lincoln and I disagree with that anonymous source in the White House, too. But I don’t take it personally. Smart people concluded it was a bad investment and they had good reasons for thinking so. My thinking was that Lincoln is going to lose in the general anyway, so her primary race was a perfect opportunity to send a message to other Democrats who will not be defeated in November. But I respect Nate Silver’s opinion and I see his point. For the same reason, I see the point from some in the White House. There’s no point in throwing a fit because someone thinks your strategy is effing retarded.
Vanden Heuvel does ultimately understand the role for progressives during this presidency.
Now, with resistance imperiling the Obama’s change agenda, there is an understanding that it is time for progressives to mobilize independently once more. It doesn’t matter whether you think Obama has done the best that he can or that he has compromised too easily. What’s important is to alter the balance of power. And that means recruiting and mobilizing to unleash new energy into the debate.
Renewed energy should bolster, not weaken reform efforts. Pundits prattle about an “enthusiasm gap” in this year’s elections. But progressives can help Democrats find the voice they need to avoid debilitating losses this fall. And by challenging the limits of the current debate, progressives can open political space for the fights that need to happen to show working Americans that Democrats are fighting for them.
The tension between Obama and the progressive movement isn’t a threat to the president. Rather, it may be needed to save him.
But you can’t do any of that if you think everyone agrees with you and the president and party are just selling you out.
The 49% of Americans who now believe the Democratic Party’s views are too liberal is one percentage point below the 50% Gallup measured after the 1994 elections, the all-time high in the trend question first asked in 1992.
You can’t advance your agenda by weakening the coalition in power through constant bitching, demotivating language, fatalism, pessimism, and wishful thinking.
The bigger half of the progressive movement seems to understand this. But the bulk of the online movement appears not to.
This is spot-on. Aravosis had a remarkable “Obama is a wuss” post the other day that generated an enthusiastic “Obama sucks” response form his readers. The comments were really quite remarkable, and put Americablog firmly into the firebagger category.
http://www.americablog.com/2010/06/memo-to-president-no-one-is-asking-you.html
I understand John is deeply upset that Obama hasn’t moved as far as he wants on gay rights issues. I don’t understand that he doesn’t see that depressing the democratic base to either not vote in the mid-term or offer a protest vote will help him reach his goals more quickly. I don’t understand how someone like John who worked on the Hill can suddenly believe that a president can force stuff to happen there. On the dem side anyway.
This stuff is deeply counterproductive. I agree with pushing for progressive policies, but not like this.
I don’t understand that he doesn’t see that depressing the democratic base to either not vote in the mid-term or offer a protest vote will help him reach his goals more quickly.
So John Aravosis is responsible for depressing base turnout? I am sure he wished he had that kind of power.
If he continues in this vein, he will contribute to some people not voting. In a close election that can be enough. He is also contributing to a “Obama = Bush” frame that is both stupid in the extreme and counterproductive to his own best interests.
Not to pick on him but because his name came up…Aravosis has a blog and writes what he writes to do his small part to move the country in the direction he wants to see it move. And he’s effective at it. People care what he has to say. And he has influence. And if he is a demotivating influence, then he’s doing his small part to widen the enthusiasm gap. I don’t think he cares because he is pursuing his agenda, which is a worthy one. But, when the netroots collectively becomes a demotivating force, it is net-negative for progressives outcomes. Reinforcing people’s cynicism and fatalism is not how an organizer gets things done.
What Booman said. Because of certain excesses, Jane Hamsher has largely been relegated to the crazy fringe (which is sad, because she did much that was good). I haven’t seen her on teevee for a long time, and she used to be a regular. She could influence opinion much more broadly there, but the crazy left has never been welcome in polite society, as the crazy right is.
I don’t want to see the same happen to John Aravosis. He has much to say that is worth saying, but he needs to decide how to say it in a manner that is constructive, not destructive.
You might want to take a look at this, too.
But what is causing that? How many of Avarosis’ readers aren’t going to vote? You know that poll that you referenced saying the Democratic Party is too liberal? Did they ask why? Not that I saw. That’s what I really want to know.
Booman, I hope you don’t mind that I posted this at Daily Kos (with full credit to you of course)
I think a lot more “progressives” need to see this.
Oh, that should be a lovely shitstorm.
Where I disagree with him, I tend to infer that he has more information than I do … has to make a decision regarding 400 million people instead of 1 … or is being pressured by hidden influences (such as military generals and military contractors).
Where I think he needs to shake things up is that he seems to be advised by people who have become too steeped in Washington DC culture.
He’s never been a really bold politician, that’s not his style. But he’s not communicating to ‘middle America’ as effectively anymore, and this is affecting the way people perceive his policies.
Not bold? He clearly decided to push for comprehensive health care reform against the advice of his staff and against the wishes of many on Congress. That Pelosi decided to jump fully on board and become the biggest asset in the effort is beside the point.
He’s plenty bold. He just doesn’t chest thump.
he didn’t do health care reform. he did health insurance reform. they’re not the same thing at all.
Was more actually possible, in the real world, with an obstructionist Senate and too any conserva-Dems?
I understand what you’re saying, but I don’t see that arguing over what ‘bold’ means in the context of health care reform is helpful.
I’ll just stick with the basics and you can call me an idiot though I don’t actually have a political blog and I have not now, nor ever have been white.
-Obama has been trying to move the needle to the right his entire presidency.
-The Republicans have been screaming about lefty and socialism and liberals all the time nothing would have changed except maybe we’d have actually progressed on that front.
-As Yglesias and Klein remind us, according to political scientists pretty much the only thing that matters is how well people think the economy is doing (not even if they have jobs but if they feel that the big-picture economy is doing better). Everything else is at the margins. A more progressive stimulus would have made the economy better.
You think he wouldn’t have gotten it, I think he would have an even. But even if he hadn’t I now prefer the creative destruction route that I eschewed in the spring of 2009 because I have now seen change is impossible otherwise.
Now you can just call me an idiot or cruel and we’ll move on.
You know what would be nice? If the comments here were like Balloon Juice where you can have 4 minutes or so to edit your comment after you post it. Then you can deal with spelling wording etc or change the thought if you want to.
Because no matter how carefully I look, something always slips by here. Probably because I type pretty damn fast (120wpm).
Is your life so bad that you’d prefer a depression just to shake things up?
I’m really surprised by this black and white thinking from progressives (I expect it from wingers). The correct question is: “would my interests be better off with Obama or the republicans.” It’s a simple question, with a simple answer. Lacking the perfect president, we deal with the one we have. I happen to think he’s pretty darned good at dealing with an absolute shitstorm of problems.
And I seem to remember the liberal wet-dream of a president – Bartlett – making plenty of political decisions and compromises.
I don’t remember hearing certain melanin-challenged progressives whining about being “shit on” when Clinton had his Sista Souljah moment. Or when Obama finally had to throw Rev. Wright under the bus. How does it feel to be at the “oh to hell with them, they will vote for us anyway” lunch counter with the hired help? Hmmm?
Dang, this was a reply to someone else.
I fail. This is why I am a lurker and not a commenter.
This is the miserable, miserable trap of two party politics.
Was referring to this: “The correct question is: “would my interests be better off with Obama or the republicans.”
If that’s what it takes to keep the civilization from coming apart at the seems.
From where I stand I see a slow but continuing slide into stupid oligarchy and repression that will eventually end only when climate change causes massive societal collapse.
You can’t advance your agenda by weakening the coalition in power through constant bitching, demotivating language, fatalism, pessimism, and wishful thinking.
So what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, too? It doesn’t help when you get shit on by your supposed allies.
You gotta lighten up. Who do think Sister Souljah voted for? Bob Dole? You can’t take shit personally. This is politics.
shorter booman: “it is OK for the president to shit on the people that helped elect him, but not OK for people who have been shit on to stay home in November.”
that about cover it?
so, if Obama insults you, you punish Joe Sestak. That’s brilliant.
I know I’ll be happier with the direction of the country with Pat Toomey representing me. Good to know that you agree.
But Sestak kicked Specter’s ass. So how did that hurt Sestak?
oooh, that’s also a good one. shorter: “when democrats don’t deliver for their supporters, it is the voters who are to blame for electoral losses.”
that about sum it up? i didn’t say it was good or bad, I just said how it is. I’ve seen this movie before in the 1990s: Clinton fucked labor and labor stayed home. but what you seem to think is that they should have rewarded him for killing their jobs.
Are you saying that NAFTA is what killed their jobs?
It helped. It also killed jobs in Mexico, which made more people want to come here. Just pointing that out for any Republican lurkers.
Not really.
As Krugman says about NAFTA:
“The anti-Nafta people are telling malicious whoppers. The pro-Nafta side is telling little white lies.”
It didn’t live up to its expectations, that’s for certain. It also did not bring about the Armageddon that labor predicted when the debate when on, either.
When did Krugman say that about NAFTA?
In 1993.
In 2003, he argued this:
http://www.liberaloasis.com/krugman.htm
Thank you!! And 2003 was in the 2nd year of Dubya’s 1st term. Given Dubya’s over all job creation record. And the jobs numbers since, I wonder what Krugman would say now. He’s hinted at it, I believe, but I can’t say for sure. I also wonder what he’d say about NAFTA’s effects on Mexico. Especially the farmers.
Again, NAFTA’s a nice scapegoat for the real elephant: farm subsidies.
What killed jobs was offshoring and the management incompetence of US corporations. The majority of the offshoring was to China and India – China for manufacturing, India for IT and call center services. Mexico was hurt by the same trends. Maquiladora factories just south of the border also lost jobs to China.
NAFTA was great for US agriculture, bringing agricultural workers from Mexico and undercutting prices of agricultural goods in Mexico, which led to immigration to the US. But in the past 15 years it is countries beyond Mexico — Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia — that have become sources of immigrants. And the farm workers who came right after NAFTA stayed, set up entrepreneurial businesses in construction and landscaping and opened bars, restaurants, and convenience stores. The transition to the construction trades has been the biggest source of friction with US workers, who saw their wages undercut.
The irony is that immigration to eastern North Carolina to work tobacco fields resulted in many Hispanic immigrants getting jobs in meatpacking plants. And Hispanic workers were big players in the successful effort to unionize the Smithfield Foods plant in North Carolina.
Krugman is right. NAFTA has become a scapegoat onto which has been loaded a bunch of globalization issues unrelated to NAFTA.
yup. and so is Richard Trumka:
More here:
with citations at the original.
You conveniently left out the first part, namely the job creation part.
It did not destroy jobs in America to the level that the left constantly likes to talk about, and to seriously think that a trade agreement like it would have that kind of power reflects on the left’s ignorance of basic economic theory.
It had shortcomings, it did not live up to its expectations, but I’m tired of the hype about it.
However, what it did do, and I won’t disagree with this, is made the wage gap higher because it still protected educated professionals like doctors and lawyers from competition.
no, i included that: “Opponents point out the fact that although most of these jobs were reallocated to other sectors, the majority of workers were relocated to the service industry, where average wages are 4/5 to that of the manufacturing sector.[9]”
which is also reported in the job creation section of the same article.
so no, i don’t agree with you at all that NAFTA was awesome.
I don’t argue that it’s awesome, but I argue that economically (not politically) that its effects have been effectively nil; neither negative nor positive.
However, I do tend to lean towards free trade, as do most economists on all sides of the spectrum.
i lean to fair trade myself.
also worth noting: nafta ain’t been so hot for the mexicans either.
Oh, some protections are most certainly needed. I’m not one of those, “Well we can’t have minimum wage or worker safety things because then they’d ship jobs to China or Indonesia!!!”
That’s ridiculous. If On the Issues rated me on trade, I’d probably get like a 40-50% rating from CATO, indicating mixed/pro-fair trade supporting.
Also, here’s this:
http://www.pkarchive.org/trade/nafta.html
I have no idea what “fair trade” is beyond mercantilism, protectionism, or autarky. The US could probably successfully operate with no imports or exports for a while; that was China’s first strategy for development.
And I have yet to see “free trade”. There are no level playing fields internationally, no harmonized accounting standards, no harmonized tariffs, no harmonized environmental regulations. Almost every nation is pursuing an industrial policy (including the US); the US industrial policy advantages agriculture, mineral extraction, and finance. And military goods and equipment exports.
free trade is one of those monikers like pro-business. What exactly does it mean? As there is no such thing as free. đŸ˜‰
What exactly does “fair trade” mean.
Free trade essentially means that international trade is carried on under the same rules that internal trade is carried on. The US has free trade among the 50 states and with several territories, like Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. By this standard, free trade does not exist internationally in “free trade” agreements, except maybe for the European Union.
in another context: “Karzai hasn’t delivered for the Afghan people, which is why they should continue to support him because the Taliban are worse.”
the real problem is that both parties have been captured by the industries and corporations they’re supposed to regulate, and one of those parties is dangerous and violent.
It may not be an inspiring message (if you limit to that one point) but it is nonetheless completely accurate.
Funny you should demonize the bad lefties as agents of demotivating language, fatalism, pessimism, and wishful thinking, considering that it’s your prescription to just accept that it’s either Karzai or the Taliban running America for the foreseeable future. You offer no alternatives, no paths to anything else. You excuse the administration and the “mainstream” Dems for every cower to Republicans and the polls.
My problem with Obama is not some conspiracy theory or doubt about his motives or allegiances. I continue to cling, with increasing difficulty, to the belief that he has what it takes to be a great and transformational leader. That will take more than counting cards and playing the odds, though. In the current New York mag, John Heilemann makes the the most insightful diagnosis of our discontent’s locus I’ve seen: “It’s time for the president to realize: He is the one we’ve been waiting for.” [Sorry, can’t seem to make links on this site with Chromium browser — nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/66478 ]
Ironically enough, I agree with you about the constant bitching and attributions of dark motives of the Open Left kind and just plain populist pandering to ignorance of the Chris Matthews kind. But your dismissal of every effort — third parties, primaries, Constitutional convention, issue-based independent forces — as just silly and dangerous in the face of a threat of Republican revival is no better. Your advice, near as I can make out, is simply to swallow whatever we have to and shut up. Like we were supposed to do because of the threat of Communism, and subversion, and terrorism since time immemorial. Far as I can see, you don’t want fundamental change and you package that distaste as an ad for this best of all possible worlds. Progressive? Really?
First of all, I predicted that some would take what I said as ‘shut up, sit down, and get with the program.’
You should understand where I am coming from. Community organizing is quite different from putting your opinion on the internet and hoping things get better as a result.
We talk all the time about how the underclass is getting screwed in this country, but most of us have high-speed internet access and lots of leisure time to engage in flamewars over bullshit. We’re not the underclass (although I would actually qualify). But we claim to be so concerned for them. Well, Dave, when you go into the inner cities in this country and talk to people and start to organize with them to improve their lives you quickly discover that no one is interested in third parties or constitutional amendments. They are interested in City Council procedure. They are interested State House procedure. They want to know who to talk to to get things done. How do we get cops to walk the beat in this neighborhood? How do we attract banks to our neighborhood? How do prevent banks from offering predatory loans to our people? How do get the income tax preparers to stop ripping off our people? How do we get the check-cashing people to stop ripping off our people?
It’s concrete and it’s in the here and now. People need help immediately. Can we get funds to open a free health clinic? Can we prevent them from closing this library or playground?
To me, that’s progressive politics. Framing and the Overton Window and weather the president pays you enough lip service? That’s for eggheads who say they give a shit but have a funny way of showing it.
To put this another way, the powerless aren’t so ambitious as to think they can transform the system or even to keep it from tilting against them. But the smart ones know how to get something for their constituents to make their lives better.
That’s why you see this kinship between bloggers who have done community organizing and Obama, and you see this alienation from bloggers who are either single-issue activists or who have never worked on the streets other than election day.
A community organizer wrings what he or she can out of a rigged system. A fatalist, a pessimist, looks at the rigged system and throws up their hands and says ‘what’s the point?’
We can’t afford that.
You’ve probably already had a post similar to this one written full stop, but I think you should write another.
One of the best I’ve seen in response to the FireDogLake’s of the world, quite honestly.
The big question I have now about Obama is that his very background in community organizing might be what brings him down. Being a good negotiator is not enough. That’s for the underlings.
You’re entirely right: the powerless don’t care about the process or the theory. They just want change. But they’re far from as clueless as you suggest. They tend to have pretty definite ideas on whether government or business should be in charge, and who you can trust and can’t. Yeah, they want beat cops and better schools and accessible healthcare. They also want a lot more than that. During the Depression it was the powerless who, with the eggheads you have such contempt for, who threatened the comfortable enough to bring radical change. It was an egghead president surrounded by eggheads who enunciated the Four Freedoms, for example, that created an essential context for redressing some of the society’s glaring wrongs. Not just the guys that got the fire dept to save poor peoples’ houses.
I can’t believe you’d write something so contemptuous as this: “To put this another way, the powerless aren’t so ambitious as to think they can transform the system or even to keep it from tilting against them. But the smart ones know how to get something for their constituents to make their lives better.” Excuse me, but the powerless and the rest of the residents of the inner city where I live have a hell of a lot more ambition and smarts about the system than the soft and whiny “centrists” out in the burbs.
How do you explain the far-right/teabagger success in turning the Republican party into an amplifier for their own insanity? It wasn’t because they got funding for some clinic. ACORN was a wonderful thing, but now it’s dead at the hands of a SYSTEM that was created to kill everything like it. I totally agree that the so-called left in this country is too isolated and not enough hands-on. I think the other half of the problem is not that they’re too theoretical, but barely theoretical at all. They have failed for generations to produce an alternative vision to replace or take over the core systems. Our most prominent politically powerful lefties like Sanders and Kucinich come nowhere near helping us face the fact that our system has literally run out of gas.
We don’t need one side or another. We need both, and your recent insistence that only half the team is worth anything is puzzling and disappointing.
Here’s how I’d rewrite your last 2 paragraphs: “A community organizer wrings what he or she can out of a rigged system. A social reformer, a visionary, looks at the rigged system and says ‘this is rotted right down to the root. Our job is to figure out how to pull it out and build something that works again. We can’t afford to leave it in the hands of the neo-fascists and the crazies.” But they will be the inheritors if all we do is open some clinics and make the misery of the underclass just a tiny bit more tolerable.
We can’t afford that.
yeah, we need visionaries, too. But visionaries aren’t whiners. They have the clearest vision about the arc of history.
Obama as community organizer: the BP 20 bill. fund is a great instance. (how I would love to see a transcript of that meeting!) Note: Obama’s “bipartisanship”, constantly maligned as naivete, I would say is one aspect of a cardinal rule in organizing, which is to allow the opponent a way of saving face when they give in to your demands. actually, I would argue that in organizing emotions are a luxury, one must focus on the pragmatics of achieving the goals because the deck is totally stacked, hence the process requires extreme focus. just my 2cents.
amplification of teabaggers’ message is being done by msm and is a continuation of Bushco’s strategy using culture wars to advance a corporatist agenda. would love to know precisely who was paid what to attend town hall meetings last summer. Sanders, imo has everything to do with the unique culture of Vermont, that it is small, rural and with a community culture, interestingly very different from the libertarianism of NH. if I understand correctly, pointy-headed intellectuals retreated to VT in the 60’s and 70’s and ended up being transformed by it. VT has a relatively large artisan population as well as farm. They changed the realestate tax, distinguishing residential and non residential (summer people, skiers) property in 1997 and other changes in assessment to equalize school opportunity across the state.
Big ups on this comment BooMan. Maybe the tension between the two perspectives on progressive action (pragmatist?/fatalist?) creates a balance, mostly? Or reflects a balance?
thanks!!
… and one of those parties has at least a passing interest in good public policy as long as it doesn’t overly burden the industries and corporations that have captured them. Dems do care abut policy, repubs pretty much only about power. And Dems do understand the purpose of and need for regulation, even when dealing with the inevitable problem of agency capture.
So it’s okay for Democratic politicians to shit on their base, while Republicans always kiss the ass of theirs? If you think I am thin skinned, do you feel the same about unions?
I think you have a reduced idea of who the base of the Democratic Party is. And the illusion that all African-American Democrats are progressive in the same sense that you are progressive. Or that progressive values automatically sell to rank-and-file union workers.
Netroots progressives might be a margin in some states, but they are hardly the base. I think that this has been the error that a lot of folks have had, including me.
PREACH!
God, the netroots really are that vain and self-important, aren’t they?
No, I don’t. And it’s lovely that you think for me. I know that African-Americans aren’t as “progressive” as a lot of people here. Hell, a lot of them would be Republicans, except for the racism and other unsavory aspects of the GOP. I also know that with out either them, or unions, the Democratic Party would cease to exist.
Or to put it another way, would you remain friends with someone who talked shit about you all the time? That hardly, or never in Rahm’s case, had anything nice to say to you?
Remain friends? What does being friends have to do with anything? You totally should not invite Rahm or Obama to your birthday party.
As for your earlier point, do you think unions are going to sit out the next two elections? Support third party candidates? If they let their feelings dictate their political responses then maybe they would, but they don’t.
they did in 1994. and it’s widely believed that 3rd party Nader cost gore the election (the same way 3rd party perot, who took nearly 205 of the vote, may have cost Bush the election in 1992).
so no, not a big leap at all.
That’s an opinion piece with no data to back it up. In fact, Trumka doesn’t even say that it was union members that stayed home in 1994 (just voters in general which is true). That’s probably because he has no idea whether such a statement would be true or not. Self reported data does exist but it doesn’t support the idea that union voters stayed home more than non-union voters did. And all that’s just scratching the surface without even delving into motivations. But you sound pretty sure. Do you have some data that shows that union members stayed home in 1994 over Clinton’s economic policies? Or is it just a feeling you have?
I guess you don’t know how to read. first of all, it’s not an opinion piece: the author never discusses his own feelings which is, ya know, the definition of “opinion”.
and then there’s this:
OOPS.
and then there’s this:
when the head of the AFL-CIO says “workers” he means “labor”, whether it’s organized or not.
here too:
Where is the data to back up Trumka’s opinions? That’s what I asked you and you just block quoted his opinions. OOPS!
So why do all those polls show Democratic enthusiasm is lacking? Do you forget those polls that show shitloads of people that thought HCR(or HIR as some say) didn’t go far enough?
SSSSHHHH! you’re ruining the narrative.
Democratic enthusiasm is lacking. First of all, this is an off-year election. Enthusiasm of the ruling party always drops in an off-year election unless there is an overwhelming reason to turn out. Second, many younger voters have been turned off with the sausage-making legislation in Congress. Third, African-American turnout will be lower because this will not be the historic election of the first African-American president. And Hispanic turnout will be high only where politicians give reason for Hispanics to see they are different on immigration issues than Republicans.
And on top of that will be the lower enthusiasm of progressives. Or of those who voted for Obama because he was not John McCain.
Per my previous post, only lacking compared to Republicans but in historical terms it’s very high so people arguing that turnout is projected to be low like in 1994 aren’t basing such statements on facts that I’m aware of. And I’m not saying that the gap isn’t important, just that their feelings based theories about an enthusiasm gap don’t hold water.
will have to mobilize younger voters on the environmental issues – luckily Joe Barton et al. are playing into the dem. hand.
If you’d like to discuss polls and what you think they prove why not link to some and argue for what you think the data proves? But I think what you’ll find if you do is that Democartic voter enthusiasm is not lacking, Republican enthusiasm is through the fucking roof. I’ll leave it to you to figure out why the latter is true. Some vague reference to whether people thought HCR went far enough explains nothing. I supported its passage, still agreed that it didn’t go far enough when I was polled and plan to vote this November and in 2012.
Republican enthusiasm is through the fucking roof, yes; but things are not that simple, if the results of this recent poll from Quinnipiac mean anything:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1436
Message, you are victims.
Did a good percentage of the online left start acting like victims because they’ve been told so often they’re victims (“you’re being hippie punched!”) or did some people figure that the best way to gain and keep an audience was to constantly reaffirm their victimhood for them?
Jane learned that from the “drown gov’t in a bathtub” guy.
It’s actually one of her lackeys but they all play the same sad trombone note over and over so it doesn’t matter much. And Norquist is evil but he’s been very effective. Had he devoted his energies to whining instead of organizing against sane tax policies he wouldn’t have been.
I think its both.
I mean, there are real disappointments with the administration. There are some things that they are doing that should be outright opposed. There are areas where they deserve sharp criticism. But you have to also keep things in context and realize that having a center-left coalition isn’t inevitable and the a progressive coalition is impossible for now. So, you need be able to carry two seemingly contradictory thoughts together in your head. Most progressive advancements can only be accomplished thru a center-left coalition, and that places real limitations on what is possible, and the alternative to a center-left coalition is currently a certain catastrophe likely to dwarf what Bush and Cheney accomplished.
Therefore, progressives need to be critical and supportive at the same time. That might not get you the widest readership, though, so you don’t see enough of it online. Offline, however, OFA and other progressive organizations have no trouble understanding this dynamic.
Offline, however, OFA and other progressive organizations have no trouble understanding this dynamic.
Tell me the next time OFA criticizes the President. I won’t hold my breath.
Can you cross-post this on DailyKos please? I’m sure you’ll get HRed a bunch (as The Field does regularly at this point), but if you get through to even a couple people it will have been worth it.
Rude had the same criticism that I did:
http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/2010/06/obamas-oil-spill-speech-us-and-them-who.html
Bravo!! You, like Boo, make my head spin. You say something silly up above, since you don’t know me at all, and yet you say this. I can’t speak for anyone else but given everything I’ve heard from people, your critique is spot on. It’s also the same critique I’ve had over and over again(since I’ve watched other speeches but not this one). He is either afraid of, or doesn’t want to, leading on an issue. Will you agree or disagree this has been his over all approach, and not on just this issue?
In terms of leading the people? I don’t think he’s done it on much of anything. However, I don’t think the bully pulpit gets things done, legislatively. It is especially ineffective in this environment of partisanship. The fact is, the Democrats are in power, and you aren’t going to be able to muscle the Republicans around when the filibuster is protecting them from any accountability; if anything, it’s doing the opposite.
On this issue, specifically, is where he needs to convince the people about clean energy in the same way that JFK talked about landing men on the moon. So here is where I think he needs to actually lead the people. This issue is different because we can all make a difference individually, which is much different on other issues. We’re the consumers, we’re the ones who created this huge demand for fossil fuels, we need to reverse that demand in the other direction.
Moreover, I don’t think he has anything to lose by using the bully pulpit, which I did think he had a lot to lose by using it with health care.
Was this the right forum for that? Well, he used this to mainly talk about BP, so that’s debatable. He absolutely needs to do this sometime soon, though. If not now, when?
Another issue I think he could have done this with was the stimulus. He could have used it as a learning session to teach people about basic economics, arguing that even John McCain’s economic adviser argued for more stimulus than we got.
Unlike most on the left, I was surprised he got a stimulus as high as he did. Perhaps he could have gotten something larger, but I didn’t see how that was possible. It really pissed me off that he allowed the most important part (aid to the states) to be cut, though. That should have been prevented, full stop.
In terms of leading the people? I don’t think he’s done it on much of anything. However, I don’t think the bully pulpit gets things done, legislatively. It is especially ineffective in this environment of partisanship. The fact is, the Democrats are in power, and you aren’t going to be able to muscle the Republicans around when the filibuster is protecting them from any accountability; if anything, it’s doing the opposite.
No it’s not. Does he want a specific thing accomplished? If so, tell people to call their Congressman/woman. Tell people to write LTE’s. Whatever. There are things he can do. We’ll probably agree to disagree, but he seems to take as much as the Blue Dogs will allow, instead of trying to move the goal posts. And that’s not a recipe for getting people excited.
He does do that, and he’s done it through OFA. Putting that aside, I don’t think it does anything in districts that are not known to swing; that leaves a good 100 or so districts out there. I mean, do you seriously think that the Republicans will be swayed by a big influx of calls knowing full well that Cook rates their district +10? Moreover, Republicans have the ability to keep discipline, the Democrats do not. I’m not sure how to remedy this; it could be a totally different mindset which is why people are Democrats and Republicans in the first place (conservatives tend to like authority and set ways and order, liberals are the opposite).
Moving beyond specific districts, the states are even worse. There’s no way that enough letters will sway anyone other than Scott Brown.
The President can not even do anything unless the merry band of Corporate “Centrist” Senator Democrats sign on, which are obviously not progressive ideas. Why the Senate Dems do not practice more party discipline is more the Senate’s deal.
The most disappointing thing of the last 2 years aside from the Admin not having a plan B for unemployment or their awful record on civil liberties has been all the stuff Pelosi had gotten passed through the House and never even taken up by dysfunctional Senate. I do not know how this is the President’s fault.
What would you do to Evan Bayh, or Landrieau or Ben Nelson to make them vote your way? It is just impossible without gutting the bills to have Corporations write the changes. I agree the President is attempting to move the ball forward with first downs and personally, I would love to see him at least throw the ball deep but keeping the ball away from the crazy Republican party is probably the most important thing.
I wish he would tell us supporters his exact plan and how he wants to help him accomplish it. This isnt Harvard Review where everyone wants to accomplish something as the Tea Baggers are not looking for middle ground.
Big tent parties have difficulties with party discipline that little tent parties do not.
US parties are not like European parties in multiparty systems but like ruling or opposition coalitions. Except the Republican Party seeks to be like a European Party, which means that it can exert party discipline. And also it becomes a smaller and smaller tent unless it is dishonest with voters.