Steve Dreihaus represents parts of Cincinnati and its suburbs. A big chunk of his district is in Hamilton County, which Obama carried with 53% of the vote. It was the first time in 44 years that a Democrat carried the county. Dreihaus beat Republican Steve Chabot by a measly 14,472 votes, and that was largely on the back of a single ward.
Mr. Chabot said he was impressed by the Democratic Party’s get-out-the-vote operation, particularly the absentee ballot program, which he plans to try to replicate. He conducted a precinct-by-precinct analysis of the 2008 race, which he said found an “unusually skewed turnout” with margins that increased by 30 percent in Democratic areas and dropped by 10 percent in Republican areas.
“It would have been different if I would have gotten voted out on some kind of scandal or if we’d lost touch with the district, but that didn’t happen,” Mr. Chabot said. “Republicans were not particularly pleased with the nature of the national ticket, and they weren’t very excited.”
This time, as much as the race may be affected by the national mood, along with a 9.4 percent unemployment rate here, it also could be determined by hyperlocal statistics. Will Mr. Driehaus and his Democratic organization repeat the voter turnout of more than 70 percent in the city’s largely black Seventh Ward?
If the OFA has anything to do with it, turnout will be high again.
“Our job is to make sure people don’t take a pass on the midterm,” said Ken Shewmon, a management consultant who volunteers as a Democratic neighborhood team leader. “We know who they are, we know where they are, we know their phone numbers.
“We’re a little bit early now,” he said, “but if we don’t see a lot of volunteers by August, that’s a problem.”
This is why I am pivoting to start talking about the elections. I don’t much care about Dreihaus except for his vote for Speaker. But his race is just a microcosm of the challenge we face all over the country. If volunteers don’t show up at OFA offices by August, we have a problem. So, it is time to get ourselves motivated and get to work.