One thing last night showed is that polls can be wildly wrong. This was particularly true in Florida’s gubernatorial and Alaska’s senatorial GOP primaries. I hope so, because Nate Silver (now with the New York Times), is predicting the loss of 6 to 7 senate seats for the Democrats, with a 20% chance of losing the majority.
Personally, I am more hopeful. I truly believe that we have the stronger candidate (by resume, temperament, and sanity) in every single competitive senate race in the country. Whether it’s Paul Hodes vs. Kelly Ayotte or Sharron Angle vs. Harry Reid or Lee Fisher vs. Rob Portman or Joe Sestak vs. Pat Toomey or Rand Paul vs. Jack Conway or Barbara Boxer vs. Carly Fiorina or Alexi Giannoulias vs. Mark Kirk or Meek/Crist vs. Marco Rubio or Richard Blumenthal vs. Linda McMahon or Roy Blount vs. Robin Carnahan or Michael Bennet vs. Ken Buck or Patty Murray vs. Dino Rossi or Ron Johnson vs. Russ Feingold or David Vitter vs Charlie Melanchon or Chuck Grassley vs. Roxanne Conlin or Richard Burr vs. Elaine Marshall or its Joe Miller vs. Scott McAdams, I think we have the advantage when it comes time to actually campaign.
That doesn’t mean I think we’re going to win all those elections, but it means that the polls will improve as people start paying attention to their choices. I even have some optimism about the race in Delaware between Mike Castle and Chris Coons. We have a shot in Indiana, as well. Based on the strength of our candidates and the weaknesses of the opposition, I think a loss or gain of one to two seats is the most likely outcome.
