The party that is shut out of the White House is always in a certain sense desperate to win a presidential election, but there are degrees. After eight years of Reagan and four years of Poppy Bush, the Democrats were pretty damn hungry in 1992. Nevertheless, they still needed help from Ross Perot.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a hungrier party than the Democrats in the 2006-2008 period. That era defined desperation.
So, I don’t see the Republicans as being particularly hungry in 2012 after a mere one term of having a Democrat in the Oval Office. They’ll want to win, but they won’t be willing to put aside all differences, hold their noses, and vote for the most electable candidate. No matter what happens in the midterms, they’ll be having a contest to see who can be the most radically conservative candidate.
On the other hand, if they really bomb in the midterms, and particularly if the upstart Tea Party candidates do particularly badly, there will be a rather strong internecine fight among the GOP candidates for president. That will be a much different dynamic than if the Tea Partiers do extraordinarily well. If they do well, then dissenting Republicans will shut up much like Prussian officers shut up after the Ancshluss. They’ll think “Hey, maybe I think this is insane, but it seems to be working.”
It’s hard to say with certainty which outcome will be better for Obama’s reelection prospects. The midterms of 1982 and 1994 actually helped Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton in their reelection campaigns. So, losing badly this year could wind up being a blessing in disguise. But I think it will be healthier overall if we had a closer election in 2012 because the traditional Republican Party still has a pulse.
I imagine a party where Dick Lugar could win the nomination for president. I’d rather beat Lugar narrowly than take 40 states from Palin. Why? Because I’m a Democrat, but more importantly I am an American. The health of our politics matters to me.
“Because I’m a Democrat, but more importantly I am an American. The health of our politics matters to me.”
Agreed. I want a sane, rational opposition. It’s good for the country.
This shit ain’t.
Lugar might be in the administration…
I’m glad that David Plouffe is on the job again, that guy seems to be one of the best political strategists that we have. But he has his hands full– The Democrats aren’t going to be able to ride the Hope & Change wave again. They are going to have to count on the voters understanding that a Republican majority in Congress would be catastrophic. Political junkies like us may get it– but it’s not the most inspiring message to draw your base to the polls.
I’d rather take 45 states from Palin.
I’m an American, but these crazy mofos need to be shot down like the rabid dogs that they are.
they bring absolutely nothing useful to the table.
yes, I believe that.
absolutely, positively nothing.
gonna use a Black folks’ expression.
those mofos need to be beaten like a runaway slave.
because, I believe they are THAT dangerous for the country that I love.
it’s either us or them.
I choose us.
they don’t want to co-exist peacefully.
I can accept that.
but, it’s not going to be US.
it’s going to be THEM.
I’d rather crush the crazies this November than have them around in 2012. The country can’t take two more years of this nonsense where Rush Limbaugh is the head of the Republican Party and can make even Karl Rove heel. Speaking of which the best thing that could happen to this country is the failure of all the radios that run while people work. At garages and beauty shops and tire stores and feed-and-seed stores and small town restaurants.
As for Lugar, he’s the last of a bunch that now looks by comparison like a good Senator. I suspect that he retires when his term is over, if not before.