It will be interesting if the Republicans pick up 15-20 seats in the South. Based on the New York Times’ reporting, we could see another solidification of the North/South realignment, which will then be amplified when it comes time to do the redistricting. What’s unsurprising is that the really vulnerable Southern Democrats are the ones who are representing majority-white districts:
There are 59 Democrats in House seats across the South from the 11 states of the old Confederacy, totaling 43 white representatives and 16 black ones. Of those seats in predominantly white districts, nine are leaning Republican, eight are tossups and at least five more are competitive, according to the latest rankings by The New York Times, creating the prospect of the biggest Democratic losses since 1994, when 19 seats fell…
Don Fowler of South Carolina, who is a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said the party could lose those seats for years to come if Republicans win the districts in November. He said the Southern states with significant population growth, particularly Virginia and North Carolina, might be the only ones to retain significant Democratic representation.
“In those places where there has not been a demographic change and you are relying on a split between most white people and African-Americans, the move toward Republicans is going to proceed at pace,” Mr. Fowler said. “But if there were 18 to 20 losses this year, that would be catastrophic.”
It would be catastrophic from Mr. Fowler’s point of view, because he cares about South Carolina. But, every action has a reaction. For example, the following is also true in reverse:
“It’s not a good prospect for the Democratic Party in the South,” said Glen Browder, a former Democratic congressman from Alabama. “It should be a moment of reflection for Democrats. When you forfeit the South, your sights tend to drift too far left.”
When the Republicans finally forfeited New England in 2008, their sights went careening to the right like a car that has lost its brakes. It seems like we are increasingly living in four different countries. We have the North and the left coast, we have the Old South, and we have the New South, and we have a region where the Mormon Belt is butting up against massive growth in the Latino population. Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are part of the New South, and the difference is brought about by diversity.
Obama made inroads in the New South and in the Mormon Belt (by winning Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada). But he did very poorly with the white vote in those areas. Obama’s physical appearance may have acted as a propellant to a political shift that was already taking place, but the closer we come to having a split between a White People’s Party and an Inclusive Party, the less our politics are going to be about issues, and the less accountable our politicians are going to be. Take a look at Charlie Rangel and David Vitter. Their constituents are not really considering voting them out because they consider the alternative party to be completely unacceptable. We’re going to see more of that, and it’s really a quite dangerous thing.