I voted many times but this was the first time I’ve ever seen an exit poll outside my polling place. It was also the first time I was chosen to participate in an exit poll. Apparently AP, ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN and one other so-called news organization (Fox) have joined their collective forces to pay for the poll I took and share the data. Edison Research was the name of the polling company.
The interesting thing (to me anyway) about the exit poll was that it asked a number of question that had nothing to do with for whom I voted. It asked for my approval rating of Barack Obama (strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove and no opinion were the choices. I selected somewhat approve because, well, that’s the truth for me.
The poll also asked what was the most important issue facing the country: 1) the War in Afghanistan, 2) the economy or 3) health care reform. That was it. Three choices only.
Noticeably absent were the issues of climate change, the environment, energy policy, gay rights and immigration reform, which I would have thought would be there in light of the fact that we already passed health care reform, and all of these other issues received a great deal of attention over the last two years. Hell, I wasn’t even offered the choice of “international terrorism” as the biggest concern facing America, an issue which I assume some people still believe is pretty damned important. I can only surmise that the exclusion of these other issues tells us something significant about the narrative the media wants to talk about tonight when they pontificate about this election and, more importantly, what they don’t want to talk about.
When you exclude many of the most important issues facing the nation (and in the case of climate change facing the world) it tells me the networks paying for this poll want to limit the discussion about what the electorate cares about and provide a simplified story, one that can fit within a preconceived narrative. Why was health care reform chosen, for example, over the others?
It’s clearly an issue in my mind that can only refer to the Republicans who campaigned to repeal the health care reform legislation. But they also campaigned hard in many states on the issue of immigration. So why choose one and not the other? Could it be they don’t want to make voters who might have picked immigration reform appear racist?
In addition, health care reform was the single largest accomplishment touted by the Democrats. I have little doubt that they wish to tie in the approval ratings of Obama with the campaign promise of many in the GOP to repeal “Obamacare” as they like to call it.
Yet, as many of us know, a lot of people on the left and independents disapprove of the President for reasons that have little if anything to do with health care reform.
Many of us are disappointed that so little action was taken to dismantle the intrusive national security state of widespread warrantless electronic surveillance, secret prisons, indefinite detention, the use of “state secrets” as a means to limit lawsuits against the government for violating civil liberties, etc. that Bush and Cheney created.
The LGBT community is rightly disappointed that not much was done to eliminate discrimination based on sexual orientation in the military and society at large. And frankly I’m disappointed as well.
Others are angry that Congress and the President did not do more to install stricter oversight of the financial institutions that created this “Great Recession.” As for the issue of climate change, I for one was sorely disappointed that nothing was done to provide federal legislation to limit carbon emissions.
In short, there are a number of reason that people might have for disapproving of Obama’s performance as President that have nothing to do with the two main choices offered me in the exit poll. Instead those issues that I, and I suspect you as well feel are equally important concerns facing our nation, were excluded and I was forced to choose between these two issues only: health care reform and “the economy.”*
And what about that option “the economy?” Its a very vague description for a whole host of concerns people may have. Some may be concerned about unemployment or the threat of losing their jobs or their homes. Some may be concerned because they think their taxes are too high. Some might think that the disparity in wealth is too extreme. Some might think the deficits are too high. And others (like myself) are very worried that not enough is being done by the government to stimulate the economy.
How do you tease out all the many varied factors that would cause a voter to choose “the economy” (as I did) as the biggest concern facing America from among the three choices offered? You can’t if you’re being honest, but the way the poll asks the question allows for the media to essentially write their own narrative.
A better poll would have asked us to rank a list of issues from most critical to less critical. A better poll would have asked what aspects of the economy was I most concerned about? But the networks paying for the poll don’t want to know that information. They want to leave room for interpretation. They want to be able to spin the narrative any way they choose rather than provide a more substantial factual basis for the story they want to tell. In short, they want to dumb down the reporting and limit what they have to talk about to the American people.
Finally, let me address three other questions the poll asked me about which I believe supports my hypothesis regarding why this exit poll was so limited in the questions it asked. The first one was a question that asked how concerned I was about the direction of the country (I chose extremely concerned, by the way). A fairly standard question, I know, but one whose answer can easily be misinterpreted in the context of a midterm election results if that is the only question you’re going to ask.
Another question asked me to choose between whether I thought government should be doing more to help people or if I thought government was doing too much and more should be left to individuals and private enterprise (paraphrasing here but that was the gist of it). Again this is a loaded question. We already know how its going to be answered. Democratic voters are more likely to choose more government help and Republican voters are more likely to go with less government? So why bother to ask it? Because it fits the preordained media narrative, that’s why.
If there are no followup questions to help the media understand the various reasons different groups of people might have for answering that question as they did, the pundits are essentially provided free rein to interpret the results however the wish, and draw conclusions that might very well not be supported by even a slightly a more in depth poll. It allows both sides to invent their own conclusions.
The final question I answered was clearly intended to shape the narrative about the debate tonight as the election results come in. What was that question? It was one that asked me how strongly I approved or disapproved of “the Tea Party.”
I was not questioned regarding how strongly I approved or disapproved of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party or even Congress as a whole. Instead I was asked to give an approval rating for this amorphous, astro-turf created and financed “grass roots movement” which is not even a registered political party in any state to my knowledge. One would think that, at the least, I would have been asked to rate my approval of the two major parties and not just President Obama and the “Tea Party” but I wasn’t.
Why was this question asked and not those others? Well, I suggest you simply have to read between the lines. Two questions on a short survey asked me to rate my approval of the President and the Tea Party. I don’t think I need to work very hard to connect those dots, nor do you.
The major media outlets who commissioned this exit poll obviously want to limit their discussion of the election results to the rise of the angry anti-government Tea Party movement vs. the failure of the President and “Big Guvmint” to solve our problems. They want to make that oversimplified but easy to digest story the main focus of their election coverage tonight, in my opinion, and to hell with any little details that might muddy the picture they have already neatly framed and are ready to display to the great unwashed American Public.
That’s my analysis of this exit poll in any event. I can’t wait to hear yours in the comments.
* I saw the choice of the War in Afghanistan as just an afterthought, a throwaway option chosen because they probably don’t expect many Americans to choose the war as the biggest concern (though it clearly is a concern). I suspect few will choose the war as the biggest issue facing America in large part because the media has done such limited reporting on Afghanistan except for the few times when a major event forced thm to provide coverage (i.e., the replacement of General McChrystal as commander of American forces following his ill advised Rolling Stone interview). In short I believe the War in Afghanistan was added to round out the 3 issue field by having a “foreign policy” issue in the mix, and probably also to serve the broader narrative that Americans no longer care all that much about the war.
I personally believe many Americans are deeply concerned about the war, both in terms of the human and economic costs to our country, and the question of whether or not it is enhancing our national security, but if forced to choose only one answer concerns about the war are likely to poll far lower than the other two choices. Again, a better question would have asked me to rank a number of issues (including ones excluded from consideration) from most important to least important, but that wasn’t the information the media wanted to receive from this flawed exit poll.
