As we just learned, it’s easier for Republicans to pick up House seats in blue and purple districts during midterm elections because turnout is low and the people who don’t turn out come disproportionately from the Democrats’ base. Conversely, Democrats have the best chance to pick up purple districts in presidential years, when voter interest is highest. But the Senate is different.
It’s hard to pick up a Senate seat in Mississippi or Utah or Wyoming in a midterm year. But, in a presidential year, it is nearly impossible. In 2008, for example, the Democrats held several incumbents’ seats in McCain states (Baucus, Pryor, Landrieu, and Rockefeller) but only picked up one Senate seat in a McCain state (Begich). And, we won the Alaska seat only because the incumbent had recently been indicted. In 2012, the Republicans will only be defending ten seats. Here they are:
John Barrasso in Wyoming
Scott Brown in Massachusetts
Bob Corker in Tennessee
John Ensign in Nevada
Orrin Hatch in Utah
Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas
Jon Kyl in Arizona
Richard Lugar in Indiana
Olympia Snowe in Maine
Roger Wicker in Mississippi
Obama actually won four of these states (Indiana, Massachusetts, Maine, and Nevada). But the six states he lost, he lost very badly. When I look at this list, I see only two seats that are obviously competitive: Massachusetts and Nevada. We need to win those two seats. I do not see an obvious second tier. I think Jon Kyl is the next most vulnerable incumbent. The Republicans’ 2008 numbers in Arizona were inflated because John McCain was at the top of the ticket. Consider that in the Southwest, in 2008, McCain lost (compared to Bush in 2004) 9% of the vote in Utah, 8% in New Mexico, and 7% in Colorado and Nevada. But he only lost one percent in Arizona. Now consider that we just held our Senate seats in Colorado and Nevada. I know we’ve seen some crazy shit out of the white population of Arizona over the last two years, but that’s largely because they know that demographics are about to turn their state blue. Another factor in my thinking is that Jon Kyl is a member of the Republican leadership and, as Harry Reid learned, being a leader in Congress when the public is angry is not good for your reelection prospects.
So, we need to make Arizona a major focus of our 2012 Senate elections strategy. But we can’t just settle for these three seats because, even if we pick them up, we will probably still lose the Senate. We have to roll the dice and hope we get lucky. Now, Tennessee and Wyoming are extremely inhospitable places for Democrats to run for statewide office and this is especially true in a presidential year. But, fortunately, we have two former governors who were extremely popular. Neither of them could be termed ‘progressives’ but these seats are valuable and control of the Senate is at stake. So, all efforts should be made to recruit Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming and Phil Bredesen of Tennessee to run for Senate. I don’t think anyone else could make these races competitive and force the RNSC to play defense.
As for the remainder of seats on the list, we have to anticipate that Orrin Hatch, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Richard Lugar, and Olympia Snowe will receive teabagging opponents. If Snowe survives her challenge, she will be unbeatable by any Democratic opponent. That’s why we should try to flip her now and if she won’t caucus with us then we should recruit a candidate on the assumption that they will not face Snowe, but some Joe Miller-clone. We don’t want to flip Hutchison, Hatch, or Lugar, but we should similarly assume that they will be defeated by someone with all the senatorial qualities of a Ken Buck or Sharron Angle. We can’t beat Lugar, but we can beat his lunatic replacement. In Utah, we should try to convince Jim Matheson to run, on the assumption that he won’t be facing Hatch.
We have to be very aggressive if we want to hold the Senate. We have to take chances and be in position if things fall our way. It should be remembered that Ronald Reagan won Massachusetts in 1984, just two years after taking a shellacking in the 1982 midterms. Assume nothing, and plan for victory. Just not in Mississippi.
