Assuming that there isn’t significant filibuster reform, it seems to me like it’s inevitable that there will be some kind of government shutdown.
The Senate’s top Republican, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, said on Sunday that his party will vigorously oppose the spending initiatives President Obama plans to include in his State of the Union address on Tuesday because “it’s not a time to be looking at pumping up government spending.”
The Republicans have 47 senators, and it only takes 41 senators to block spending bills. It’s true that the Dems could use the budget reconciliation process to pass a budget with only 50 votes (plus the vice-president), but that’s not true of the actual appropriations bills. So, if the Republicans are going to “vigorously oppose” the president’s “spending initiatives,” that means that they are going to refuse to pass most, if not all, of bills needed to keep the government open and functioning.
I watched a little bit of the Chris Matthews Show this morning and the panelists all seemed to agree that there was more potential for compromise than seemed possible after election night. That might be true for some things, like passing a free trade agreement with South Korea, or, possibly, doing some significant tax reform. But it doesn’t seem to be true on the most critical issue, which is funding government operations.
At some point, one side or the other is going to have to back down. I don’t see either side backing down preemptively. Ergo, I predict that the government will be shut down in November or December. Now I just have to figure out which stocks to short.