What Sunday is to Christians, and Saturday is to Jews, Friday is to Muslims. It’s not a sabbath exactly, since there is no requirement that adherents ‘rest,’ but Friday does have a midday obligatory communal prayer and is part of the weekend in the Islamic world. If you want to get a really big protest going, Friday is probably the best day of the week to do it. That’s what we should expect to see today in Egypt. And, it appears that the Egyptian government is in full panic mode.
Protests in Egypt at the government’s rule have been building all week, and Friday was expected to see the largest demonstrations so far.
An analysis by Renesys, which provides real-time monitoring of internet access, says that “every Egyptian provider, every business, bank, internet cafe, website, school, embassy and government office that relied on the big four Egyptian ISPs for their internet connectivity is now cut off from the rest of the world. Link Egypt, Vodafone/Raya, Telecom Egypt, Etisalat Misr, and all their customers and partners are, for the moment, off the air.”
It looks like the government has shut down 88% of the internet connections in the country, although the addresses serving the stock exchange remain active. This is probably a one day shutdown that is less painful because a lot of government agencies and businesses are closed for the day anyway, but a modern country can’t function if its banks and businesses and government agencies have no internet access.
If you are looking for a sign that the Mubarak regime may be on its last legs, now you have a strong one.
It’s quite possible that a ridiculous spike in commodity prices over the last year has served as a trigger that ignited long-simmering grievances about tyrannical behavior from Middle Eastern clients of the United States. Tunisia’s tyrant has already fled to Saudi Arabia. In Cairo, they are chanting that Mubarak’s villa in the Saudi Kingdom is ready and waiting for him. Food rights have broken out in Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen, and Jordan, which are all U.S. (and/or European) clients to one degree or another. Lebanon has its own problems.
We may be entering a revolutionary phase in the Arab world. If we are, it will certainly have strong anti-Western tendencies. But the keystone is the peace agreements between Jordan and Israel (brokered by Clinton) and Egypt in Israel (brokered by Carter).
It should be remembered that Ayman al-Zawahiri’s Egyptian Islamic Jihad organization was formed as a direct response to the enactment of the Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty that was concluded on March 26, 1979. They assassinated Sadat, but Sadat was replaced by Hosni Mubarak, and the peace was maintained. Zawahiri would later merge his group with Usama bin-Laden’s al-Qaeda group and launch a series of high-casualty terrorist attacks against the U.S and U.S. interests.
We have already seen relations between Israel and Turkey founder in the wake of the Gaza flotilla fiasco. We’ve seen Lebanon’s government fall due to the increased influence of Iran-backed Hizbollah. We’ve seen the pro-western Tunisian government fall. Now we have food riots in Jordan and mass protests in Egypt.
I think we should view this as the breakdown of the status quo that has allowed Israel to operate with impunity in the Occupied Territories. Despite this, Hillary Clinton has not been backing the Mubarak regime’s censorship and has encouraged them to use the protests as an opportunity to enact reforms. There is a level of disingenuousness involved in both this, and in Obama’s praise of the revolutionaries against our long-time clients in Tunisia. But, at least our government isn’t reflexively supporting the autocrats.
We always try to avoid paying the piper. But it is going to take some real finesse to pivot away from the strategy we’ve been pursuing to protect Israel’s interests by buying off their enemies, to supporting the democratic aspirations of their deeply anti-Israeli populations.
I’d be less alarmed if I thought that the Israeli government was cognizant of the situation and prepared to act before the edifice collapses. But they seem to think that they can keep operating as they have been, with no thought to resolving the crisis that is destablilzing the whole region and causing ruptures in U.S. bilateral relations.
Things are falling apart.
Actually, one provider was uninterrupted. Noor, which is used by Exxon and other multi- nationals, as well as the stock exchange. Deliberately, I assume.
It’s a new media world.
for the fall semester. She didn’t ever say that things were at this level. Fortunately, she is now in France.
Revolutions are fun and exciting. After all, you live from day to day, never knowing what is going to happen, or when you will be taken hostage by persons who do not have a strong interest or concern about your continuing existence.
Having been through several revolutions/coups d’etat, I have to say exciting, yes. Fun? Not so much.
Uh, our government is standing right behind the tyrant, Booman. Did you not see Biden’s statement that said he wouldn’t call Mubarak a dictator?
Either way, I doubt the regime will be overthrown during these protests, but I think it’s definitely something to watch in the future. While the people would be anti-West (read: anti-Israel), most of these protests are being led by my generation. If an overthrow were to take place, would we get a far-right cleric? I don’t think that’s very likely. Especially the people in the main cities. In Tehran the youth are very much tired of their religious overlords, and I could imagine that many in Cairo are the same way.
Regardless, Israel’s days of tyranny and war crimes are approaching their last. I’m sick and tired of my government bribing dictators because they just so happen to leave Israel alone. “We want democracy” my ass. We want countries who are friendly to Israel, who don’t want to make them make real concessions, regardless of our own national interests. I’m the farthest thing from a nationalist — in fact it’s one reason I back free trade so strongly — but the one anomaly in the “governments do what is in their interest” never, ever, applies to Israel. It’s a conundrum that they could be as arrogant as the tycoons on Wall Street, believing that increasing economic inequality is good for them because of their surge in profits (with Israel believing that neverending settlements are good for their future). So really when I argue for a one-state solution, I don’t just argue for our own national security; I don’t just argue for the Palestinians’ sake; I am arguing for Israel’s sake.
For example, this is one of Egypt’s main chants:
“Hey Muhammed (common Muslim name) say to Bulis (common Christian name), Tomorrow Egypt will be like Tunis (Tunisia).”
Also, this is just another reason to keep Republicans out of office. The neocons are foaming at the mouth to invade another country (and I’m talking beyond Iran here). I’ve seen some say already, “If only we figured out a way to get to Egypt and Saudi Arabia…”
Why Egypt and Saudi Arabia? They flank the Suez Canal, a transportation choke-point. In the neocon view, Egypt is the key to power over Africa and Saudi Arabia and Iran to power over the Persian Gulf. It’s a very 19th-century imperialistic view.
Muslim-Christian sectarian violence is what Mubarak is probably hoping for to siphon off the anger. I hope that it does not occur. Indeed, having gained significant power in Lebanon, Hezbollah now is trying to avoid sectarian conflict that could destabilize Lebanon more.
Perhaps. But Saudia Arabia also still sits on huge reservoirs of oil, and the war machine drinks oil like a vampire feasts on blood. Control of the Suez Canal is important for the flow of oil and the war machine as well.
There’s also the fact that Egypt and Saudi Arabia are potentially the biggest threats to Israel. They’ve been defanged for the last couple of decades as immanent threats to Israel, but they’re also unstable and could flip back to threat if their repressive governments are ever toppled. (Left unsaid is whether the neocons care about Israel for the sake of Israel, or care about Israel as an American client state in the region to help with American hegemony in the Middle East. I suspect there are some of the former among the neocons, but there are clearly a number who view Israel as a bulkhead for American neo-colonial ambitions.)
But what happens when the oil disappears? The transportation choke-point is still there.
But you capture succinctly the contradiction at the heart of US national security policy. Civilians could stop using oil altogether and the pressure to hold the Middle East would continue. If the military no longer depends on oil, then the strategic environment changes.
I suspect that neo-cons of the Podhoretz stripe see Israel as a natural ally for Israels sake as much as for a foothold in the region. Folks like John Bolton probably see it as a pure power play.
“Egypt and Saudi Arabia are potentially the biggest threats to Israel.“
The only threat, real or potential, to Israel is Israel. This myth of Arab/Muslim states as existential threat to Israel has always been a convenient invention and has come to make less and less real-world sense over time.
Believe it or not, Israel is not the biggest thing on the Arab mind, and if Israel ever decided to mind its manners and behave as a civilized country, it would become even less a topic of concern.
“having gained significant power in Lebanon, Hezbollah now is trying to avoid sectarian conflict that could destabilize Lebanon more.“
This comes as a surprise only to those who have not bothered to learn anything real about Hezballah. To those who have taken the trouble to look beyond the myths and propaganda, it is as expected.
“having gained significant power in Lebanon, Hezbollah now is trying to avoid sectarian conflict that could destabilize Lebanon more.“
This comes as a surprise only to those who have not bothered to learn anything real about Hezballah. To those who have taken the trouble to look beyond the myths and propaganda, it is as expected.
you see it too simplistically, just trying to criticize the Obama admin. Better for our gov to stay on the sidelines and let it play out. see the Al Jezeera live feed on this http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
or more links on this-
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/1/28/939481/-Breaking:-Police-Siding-with-Protesters-in-Egypt.-Mu
barak-regime-falling.
What impressed me from what I watched this morning is that Al Jezeera commentators see our gov as NOT trying to interfere, trying to stay out of it. They at least recognize the difference between the bush admin and the obama admin, even if ppl around here don’t.
Yeah, no. They should stay out of it, but they didn’t. Biden said he’s not a dictator. End of story. Are you going to defend that statement?
Am I happy that Obama is in the WH right now more than most Democratic officials and certainly more than any Republican? Absolutely. But I will not allow a statement like that to go uncriticized. Pols are pols and geopolitics is geopolitics. It’s not my job to defend them.
I take that as part of staying out of it. if he says M is a dictator, that’s obviously taking sides. n.b. CT nat’l guard sent. there are alot of usa citizens over there – students, tourists, businessppl whatever. I don’t take that to be about helping Mubarak, more about trying to ensure safety of usa students, businessppl and tourists and getting them out of the country safely.
Saying Mubarak is not a dictator (he is, and a far worse one than most people in the U.S. realize) is hardly “staying out of it”. Staying out of it would be saying nothing at all, or at most saying something carefully neutral.
See Tarheeldems comment below – Biden and Obama splitting the difference. very good strategy imo.
So far this is going much more like Iran than Tunisia. There are no indications yet of the police or military turning. They’ve holed up el Baradei, who was making a play for leadership, in a mosque, but there is no indication that those in the street have any wish to see any particular person as leader. So far, it seems that the only demand is for Mubarak to step down. So far, mostly young faces–not a great sign. When (1) the forces supporting the regime and suppressing the demonstrations turn, (2) there is a vision of the character of the new regime, and (3) the older relatives of the security forces join the demonstrations, Mubarak has something to worry about. For now, we are witnessing Tien-an Min Square not the fall of the Berlin Wall or the Velvet Revolution.
Suppressing media coverage seems to be the 21st century tactic of choice for dealing with dissent and its violent suppression. After this is all over, we will know how effective the opposition movement was in deploying means of communications not subject to interruption (a key element of the Velvet Revolution).
The biggest danger in to foreseeable future is an Israeli government taking rash action with the intention of drawing US power in to help them. Whether these regimes stand or fall, that danger remains. After the Palestine Papers, I don’t see any country in the region advocating continued dialog with Israel.
It’s looking more like 1968 in the Middle East and North Africa than it is like 1989.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/1/28/939481/-Breaking:-Police-Siding-with-Protesters-in-Egypt.-Mu
barak-regime-falling.
not last I checked in. there’s an al jezeera live feed link on this. also reports that it’s all ready too late to turn back change. Interesting to me that the Al Jezeera commentators read our admin as hedging their bets and trying not to interfere – the stance I would hope our gov would be taking.
al jezeera link
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
we backed the wrong horse and now it’s a dead horse.
all we can do is sit, wait and see how it shakes out.
Too often US policy has been to go with the head-of-state you have instead of the one you want. And those instances in which the US has departed from that policy have tended to turn out badly over the last 60 years.
Nations tend to defer to sovereignty, other things being equal.
At any rate, the US has little chance of getting a good result by action now and a huge chance of getting a bad result. The policy seems to be equivocation with Obama on YouTube talking about democratic processes and Biden on US media saying that Mubarak is not a dictator. The key is what happens if the Mubarak government falls. How fast does the US move to recognize it?
This morning CNN’s Ben Wedemen reporting that plain clothes police grabbed and destroyed the CNN cameras; that the security police inside a 5* hotel are confiscating the cameras from tourists; that the military has moved in; all internet cut, SAT phones cut with landlines all that are left working.
Nick Robertson reporting that he sees military in Alexandria.
CNN reporting that Wikileaks is releasing correspondence with Egypt indicating US concerns with ongoing deadly force used against protestors, and civilians before this broke out.
Yemen now breaking out with protestors in the street.
Elbarade arrested
some of the discussion I heard this morning said El Baradei should have arrived sooner – arriving today after the tide has turned, as it were, is too late, also that there are plenty of democratic leaders in Egypt, he’s not the only one (this was from a young Egyptian diasporian organizing a protest outside the embassy in London)
what’s the date of the wikileaks cables?
I’ve been watching the al-Jazeera coverage. A curfew is not holding. Mubarak has deployed the military, but on the ground protesters have been applauding the military, who seem to be moving on the offices of the security services and generally trying to restore order. If this is as true as reported, it marks a huge shift. The possibility of Mubarak’s son Gamiel’s succeeding his father has driven the timing of this eruption. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has essentially undone the damage that Joe Biden did last night. The US formerly equivocal seem to be be tilting to a position to seeking a more peaceful accommodation between Mubarak and his people. The opposition has created a “rainbow coalition” that ranges from centrist to socialist to the Muslim Brotherhood. Mubarak’s National Democratic Party headquarters has been burning for two hours.
Best case: Mubarak cedes power to the “rainbow coalition” in return for NDP participation (even if minor) in a transition government.
Worst case: Mubarak reimposes a security state that makes any subsequent change much worse.
Al Jazeera showed Senator Kerry’s statement in it’s feed. They carried quotes from Clinton.
It is a fine line the US treads with this.
I am so glad GW isn’t aound to say: Bring it on.
.
Weapons of the Masses called Democracy musn’t fall into the wrong hands!
Look what happened to Tehran in 1979. The CIA and President Carter tried to have the dictatorship of the Sjah make urgent last minute refoms. Ayatolla Khomeiny and his followers didn’t buy it and the student protests took the U.S. embassy by mistake and made captives and lasting enemies with superpower U.S.A. I see the uprising in Egypt much in the same way. Luckily Egypt doesn’t have a leading cleric coming home from exile.
The Egyptian autocratic rule is under attack by both shia and sunni funded foreign power meddlers. The assassination attempt on Mubarak in 1995 was supported by Sudan and Iranian elements. The Muslim Brotherhood is a militant and political power inside Egypt and is poised to play a major role in Egypt’s future. They will most likely call the Sadat peace treaty with Israel null and void. The latest bombing of Coptic church in Alexandria was instigated by Al Qaeda sunni elements from inside Gaza and the Bedouin people living in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula.
Perhaps best to have the Egypt’s metropole of Caïro destroyed so the World won’t be reminded of the major speech by Obama. Too bad the Israelis and Netanyahu wouldn’t play along, but they had their own Zionist playbook for a Greater Israel all along.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."What has been interesting about the situation is the systematic restraint and targeted use of violence. Gone is the headquarters of Mubarak’s National Democratic Party. In Suez, protesters have (1) busted in the offices of Vodafone and (2) put a cordon around the facility to prevent looting. In Cairo, the offices of the Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Information, and the Radio and Television Ministry are under siege. Traffic is almost back to normal in a lot of place, but that is defying a curfew.
It as if US demonstrators instead of gathering on the Mall in Washington DC should instead have Million Middle-Class Marches down Fifth Avenue to Wall Street in New York (paying special attention to the offices of the corporate media) and shut down K Street and other concentrations of lobbyist offices in the DC area. It’s that sort of sophisticated and disciplined action.
It is time for (1) a political solution to the current power vacuum, and (2) a decision by the army to either support or oppose specific political solutions. A stubborn Mubarak will make the situation much worse.
The attempt by al Quaeda elements to start sectarian violence seems to me to show that they prefer instability in the political situation instead of stability. A secular-Islamic-Coptic right-left coalition that actually establishes democracy is likely their worst nightmare. And unlike the Sinai, the rest of Egypt is not an internationally monitored demilitarized zone.
The current analysis seems to be the Yemen has been defused for now, but that Syria, Jordan, and Algeria are likely to follow if Mubarak leaves power. One wonders, what about Libya? And the Saudis must feel pretty confident if they are revving up to be Mubarak’s country of asylum. Should they be?
I agree that the House of Saud is far less a sure thing than they and others might think.
Libya, I think, might stay, just by the power of Qaddafi’s wardrobe. 😉 No, but seriously, it’s just a hunch, but I think it’s more stable than the others.
As someone who most decidedly does NOT look at everything that happens in Arab countries through the lens of U.S. and Israeli interests, I say hooray, and more power to the people to overthrow the brutal tyrants who have sold their countries, and the lives of their people to the Empire and its mini-me in the Levant.
The people are demanding real democracy, not the sort that comes at the end of an American gun. This is an exciting and potentially wonderful set of events in the Arab world.