The Republicans are behaving like they don’t think they have any chance of beating President Obama and are throwing most of their energy into retaking the U.S. Senate. Of course, the two things are related. In order to take back the Senate, the Republicans need a presidential candidate who can at least hold their own in traditionally red states. If you take a look at the Senate races in 2012, you’ll notice that the Republicans are very fortunate. They are defending seats in Mississippi, Utah, and Wyoming, for example. Those states might even vote for Michelle Bachmann over President Obama. The Democrats are hoping to beat Scott Brown in Massachusetts and Dean Heller in Nevada. Beyond that, they have an opportunity to win an open seat in Arizona and then they have to hope that Richard Lugar and/or Olympia Snowe get beaten in a primary, opening up their seats for potential pickups. And there’s Texas, I guess, if the presidential election gets really lopsided.
The Republicans have tons of targets and they only need to net four seats to take control of the Senate (three, if the win the presidency). So, basically, the Republicans should be able to win the Senate even if they lose the House and get crushed in the presidential contest. But nothing is guaranteed if their nominee is a joke that can’t even compete for 40% of the vote.
And that was with Palin being a national joke and Bush having approval ratings of 30%. We’d have to see either a seriously booming economy or a GOP candidate who disgusts even teabaggers & birthers to see something close to 40%.
I don’t know anyone who thinks anyone besides Mitt can come close to 45.7%.
I think it all depends on where the economy is at in 2012. If things go to hell — and the indicators have gotten worse in recent weeks — we could be in deep shit.
I’m relieved Huckster’s out.
With the economy, I frankly don’t really get why so many on our side are so confident.
Well, it’s like you have Muhammed Ali on one side and somebody who knows a little judo on the other. Sure, Ali might forget to train hard, or it might be obscenely hot the night of the fight, or who knows what other variables might come into play. But the judo guy is going to get his ass whupped by Ali regardless.
Obama is a better campaigner than Bill Clinton, and far more disciplined and less gaffe-prone. Plus, he doesn’t have bimbos in the closet. The Republicans are offering up Newt Gingrich, Donald Trump, Michelle Bachmann, Ron Paul, and some dude who like the individual mandate. If they nominate Pawlenty or Huntsman, we’ll have a heavyweight bout. Anyone else? It will be a massacre.
And I just don’t see how Mittens wins the nomination, so I am not even considering him at this point.
I can’t see Huntsman winning the nomination after he served as an ambassador for Obama.
Pawlenty — maybe. But he has his own Mittens-type problems on issues like climate change.
Taking your Ali analogy, though, it’s a little like trying to predict the result of a bout without knowing whether or not Ali will have access to all of his limbs in the fight.
Obama’s a better campaigner than all of these guys, but I think much of what will determine the result is beyond his control at this point.
If we assume the economy continues to putz along, slowly improving (albeit at a subpar rate), then I agree it becomes very difficult to see the GOPers winning. But if we see another recession, which is probably unlikely but hardly unthinkable, I think all bets are off.
Feel the Pawmentum!
Dukakis lost 53-46 to H.W. Bush. And didn’t even win his home state. Pawlenty could totally match that shitty performance, and is about the best the GOP could hope for come 2012.
But who knows with the impending primary clusterfuck? What a disaster. It’s so pathetic you can’t even get any schadenfreude from it. I still can’t believe a pretend “credible” (by the beltway’s embarrassing standards) somebody like Corker or Brownback or whoever didn’t bother running if only to say they were a nominee for President of the United States once upon a time.
Who have they got that is a serious candidate who can survive the teabaggers and then appear at least non-crazy to ordinary voters? Baachman? Pawlenty another old white Republican who looks the same as the old white Republican they ran in 2008?