I’m not surprised that Rep. Paul Ryan has declined to run for the Senate. He’s brought a little too much heat on himself already with his plan to voucherize Medicare, and he’ll be lucky to get reelected to the House. Plus, he’s right; he would have to serve 12-18 years in the Senate to get the same amount of power over policy that he enjoys now. Unfortunately for us, former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson is stepping up to run for Herb Kohl’s seat. Thompson also served at Dubya’s first Secretary of Health & Human Services, where he pushed through the controversial Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit. That means Thompson might have to fight off a teabagger challenge to win the GOP nomination. Assuming Thompson is the nominee, he’s the strongest candidate the Republicans could hope for.
On the Democratic side, we have our own potential heavyweight in Russ Feingold, but he’s going around calling Steny Hoyer, Claire McCaskill, and Joe Lieberman corporate whores (essentially), which doesn’t strike me as the kind of behavior we should expect from someone who is seriously considering making a bid to rejoin the Senate. Another option is Madison Democrat Tammy Baldwin. She’s a member of the Progressive Caucus, she has one of the most liberal voting records in Congress, and she’s openly lesbian. I like her a lot, and I think she’d have a good shot against any other Wisconsin Republican. But asking her to beat Tommy Thompson? That would be a tough battle. I think Feingold would have a much better chance of holding the seat.
Wisconsin has been giving its electoral votes to Democrats recently, but by the smallest of margins. It’s a toss-up state and not the ideal place for a strong progressive to try to win statewide. On the other hand, if Feingold could win and hold the seat, maybe Baldwin could, too. At least, she might be able to do it in the right cycle. The GOP in Wisconsin hasn’t been winning many converts lately, and the president will probably be a whole lot more popular there in November 2012 than the incumbent governor.
Ultimately, I’d be happy with either Baldwin or Feingold. Most of all, I don’t want some teabagger taking over the seat for a six-year term. Wisconsin already has one of those, and it doesn’t need another.
I think it’ll be Kind or Barret because I seriously doubt Feingold will run. I don’t think Baldwin could win a primary against either of them, and I’m pretty sure one will step in. I also think either of them would stand a pretty good shot against Thompson because of our recent experiences with Republicans here in WI, and because he’s getting to be a bit long in the tooth–72 in 2012.
I would assume any Republican would have the advantage now in Wisconsin. With Voter ID in place, the Democratic vote is going to be held down.
The statement that “the president will probably be a whole lot more popular there in November 2012 than the incumbent governor” is kind of interesting, since we aren’t sure who the incumbent governor is going to be in November 2012. (There will probably be a recall election sometime that summer.) That said, the current incumbent governor got his job precisely because the president was so unpopular in Wisconsin. I think the state is fairly evenly divided on Scott Walker. It just seems like he is more unpopular than he is because the 47% or so who oppose him are so strongly opposed to him.
Tommy Thompson was always re-elected by lopsided margins. However, he hasn’t held office in Wisconsin for some time, and I think he could be vulnerable, especially within a Republican primary. I wonder if Sean Duffy will enter the race. The Tea Party has the momentum in Wisconsin, and I would expect they would seize the opportunity to grab a second senate seat.
I’m hoping one of the Fitzgerald creatures gets nominated. As the 2nd most hated pols in WI, they’d make outstanding opponents with hours of juicy video to cull ads from. Tommy is the scary one, seems to me. He’s weirdly popular long term for no apparent reason, and in this climate seems like a “moderate”.
Much as I’d like to see Baldwin take the seat, the attacks would be nonstop and effective, I’m afraid. Feingold would be formidable now that folks have seen GOP results up close and personal, but might make a better governor. I would think one of the “Wisconsin 8” would make excellent bets. Any talk of that?
has always been his compulsive truth telling.
…and his inability to keep from diving in front of any available camera.
He had to make up for Kohl.
On the famous division between Senate “show horses” and “work horses,” Feingold always seemed more like the former to me.
I live in Ryan’s district. I’m not so sure he’ll lose his seat but I would love to see it happen. He won very comfortably even in 2008 when Obama won the district by 10% or so. A good candidate and proper messaging might win it for us.
I really wonder about the effect of the Grandma killing Medicare destruction bill. Properly publicized, I think that it could be fatal.
I expect Kind to announce a run for the U.S. Senate and for Barrett to have a rematch with Walker for governor. Feingold and Baldwin are welcome to try for the Senate too, but as a Democrat myself I’d rather not see a nasty primary fight if it can be helped.
Thompson for all his past popularity is kinda old (he’ll turn 70 later this year) to be a freshman in the Senate, and it’s telling that he passed up a chance to run against Feingold in 2010. So, I think Tommy will milk the anticipation that he’ll run for what it’s worth and then regretfully decline again.