I think it’s smart for the Obama campaign to look at all possible ways of reaching the magical 270 electoral votes, but I don’t think this election is going to be close. It is going to be a blowout. As of today, I’d place heavy odds on it being a blowout in Obama’s favor, but things could take a turn for the worse. Actually, let me put this a different way. If Obama wins reelection, he will win it in a rout. If he loses, it could be close or it could be a blowout.
First, let’s look at recent history. Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton all won reelection in major drubbings that were never really in doubt. Jimmy Carter, who lost his reelection campaign, was drubbed. Poppy Bush only won 37% of the vote in 1992. The lone exception to this rule is 2004, which found George W. Bush winning reelection about as narrowly as it is possible to win.
Basically, people are able to reach a verdict on their sitting presidents, and it is very rare for the nation to be all that divided about the matter.
The other day I wrote about Harry Truman’s successful campaign for reelection in 1948, and that still serves as a counterexample to what I’m saying. Truman won narrowly. But Truman wasn’t a true incumbent and was seeking election for the first time.
I believe Obama will probably win at least as big as Clinton won in 1996, and perhaps close to as big as Lyndon Johnson won in 1964.
And, if he loses, I expect him to lose decisively, including in states we consider to be reliably blue.
People are going to come to a decision, and that decision is going to be similar whether it’s the voters of Connecticut or Missouri. This will not be a red/blue election.
