I agree with Nate Silver’s analysis of last night’s debate. It’s pretty clear that Bachmann’s strength and Pawlenty’s weakness closed a door for Sarah Palin and opened one for Texas Governor Rick Perry. If Perry was watching the debate, it’s hard to believe that he wasn’t thinking to himself that he could immediately get slotted into second place if he chose to run. And, as Nate noted, William Buckley always said that the Republicans should nominate the most conservative candidate who can win the general election. In that regard, Perry would have a better argument than Romney.

Unlike Pawlenty, Perry doesn’t come off as the kind of Beta Dog that will let other men take off with his wife. And that’s the one area where I differ from Nate. Pawlenty didn’t miss an opportunity to attack Romney; he missed an opportunity to show a degree of spine and toughness. Even the way the ObamneyCare question was posed was a challenge to his manhood. After Pawlenty took a pass at the first effort to get him to discuss his use of the term (the day before), CNN‘s moderator John King pressed him twice more:

KING: And you don’t want to address why you called Governor Romney’s Obamneycare?

PAWLENTY: Well, the issue that was raised in a question from a reporter was, what are the similarities between the two? And I just cited President Obama’s own words that he looked to Massachusetts as a blueprint or a guide when he designed Obamacare.

KING: But you chose — you say you were asked a question, which is fair enough, but you chose those words. And so one of my questions is, why would you chose those — choose those words maybe in the comfort of a Sunday show studio? Your rival is standing right there. If it was Obamneycare on “Fox News Sunday,” why isn’t it not Obamneycare standing here with the governor right there?

PAWLENTY: It — President Obama is — is the person who I quoted in saying he looked to Massachusetts for designing his program. He’s the one who said it’s a blueprint and that he merged the two programs. And so using the term “Obamneycare” was a reflection of the president’s comments that he designed Obamacare on the Massachusetts health care plan.

KING: All right.

It was the equivalent of John King telling Pawlenty that that man over there with the perfect hair is flirting with his wife, and Pawlenty decided to pretend it wasn’t happening and moved on to the hors d’oeuvres table.

This impression that Pawlenty just radiates is by far his biggest problem and he made it much worse by confirming it in what was really a first impression situation.

He’s the kind of man who will talk a lot of smack behind your back and then act like he’s your best friend to your face. And it’s not because he’s clever; it’s because he’s a coward.

This is the kind of character flaw that you can’t correct without seeming phony. It doesn’t help that Romney is taller, better-looking, more experienced as a campaigner, better on his feet, and a more accomplished debater.

If there’s a saving grace for Pawlenty it is that Romney is a bit of a pretty-boy who has all the same kinds of elitist tendencies of a John Kerry. In other words, he’s not exactly connecting with the working men and women of the GOP. Pawlenty’s other hope is that he’s still the only alternative to Romney that has the kind of experience and temperament that people expect in a presidential candidate. But that could change if Rick Perry gets in. And I believe Pawlenty just gave Perry a giant invitation to do just that.