The president of Americans for Tax Reform, Grover Norquist, caused some controversy yesterday when he appeared to say that letting the Bush tax cuts expire would not be a violation of a pledge lawmakers took not to raise taxes. In an effort to clear up any confusion, Norquist took to today’s New York Times with a column that is rich with poor logic and tautological reasoning.
The reason this matters is that, by Norquist’s count, “236 current members of the House of Representatives and 41 current senators” have taken his Taxpayer Protection Pledge. Both numbers are more than adequate to block the passage of any tax hikes in their respective houses of Congress. Before I get started with Norquist’s logic, I’ll give you the answer to the Bush tax cuts question. The way the pledge works is that Americans for Tax Reform takes a look at bills pending before Congress, and if they think a particular bill will raise a tax, they will inform congressmembers that they will be “scoring” the bill. In other words, a vote for that bill will be considered a violation of the pledge. But, because the Bush tax cuts were ostensibly designed to be temporary, they can disappear without any vote on any bill. If there is no bill, there can be no vote, and the pledge only deals with votes. So, a failure to prevent the lapsing of the Bush tax cuts would not “score” against a congressperson’s anti-tax record. However, if the Bush tax cuts were to lapse not through inaction but, rather, were eliminated as part of some grand bargain, then there would be a vote, and that vote would be scored. Got that? Okay, let’s move on.
When the government is running a deficit, it is spending more than it is bringing in in revenues. The government can eliminate a deficit by spending less, taxing more, or some combination of the two. But Norquist attempts to define this basic reality out of existence.
The problem to be solved is not the deficit; it is overspending. Federal spending in the 2008 fiscal year was $2.9 trillion, and Washington will now spend $3.8 trillion in the fiscal year that ends on Sept. 30. Raising taxes is what politicians do instead of reforming and reducing the cost of government. Advocates of larger government prefer to talk about deficits rather than spending. Why? Because there are two solutions to a deficit problem: spend less or raise taxes. The issue, in other words, isn’t the pledge; it’s Washington’s inability to deal with its own overspending. There is only one fix for a spending problem: spend less.
Notice what he did. He said there are two solutions to the deficit problem, and then in the next sentence he said there is only one solution to the deficit problem. In logic, that is what we call begging the question. This occurs when the conclusion you desire is presented as a premise. Another potential objection is that Norquist has presented two contradictory premises. Both of them cannot be true, and therefore he has presented an invalid argument. Either way, his logic is fatally flawed. He simply asserts that the only way to close the deficit is to cut spending, but knows, and even openly admits, that this is not the case.
Let’s look at another part of his column. Here he is talking about the difference between voting to raise a tax and voting to eliminate a tax subsidy.
Others have tried to redefine “tax increase,” specifically by arguing that eliminating a tax credit, exclusion or deduction in order to rake in more tax revenue should not count as a tax hike. The theory is that any dollar the government failed to take from you in taxes had in fact been given to you in a spending program. By this reasoning, the deduction-killing Alternative Minimum Tax is not a tax hike — a cruel joke on the millions of Americans who get hit by it every year. When a mugger passes you on the street leaving you unmolested, he did not in fact give you your wallet.
This is a more complicated argument to unwind. It has the implied premise that all money owned by a person or corporation belongs to them and that any taxation is the one-to-one equivalent of robbery. If you accept that premise, then all taxation is a crime. Something must be wrong with his reasoning. To make it simpler to think about this, imagine that we had a flat income tax of 15% instead of our progressive system. In this case, each individual would have the implied ownership of 85% of their earnings. Now, imagine that certain people, e.g., soy bean farmers, got to keep 95% of their earnings while you did not enjoy any similar subsidy. Does it still make sense to say that just because the government didn’t take that last 10% from the soy bean farmers that they didn’t put cash in the pockets of the farmers?
What Norquist is saying is that everyone who enjoys some preferential treatment in the tax code is owed that preferential treatment in perpetuity. They not only deserved to get that tax preference in the first place, but any attempt to take it away is the equivalent of a mugging. It’s hard to even construct this argument in Symbolic Logic because it isn’t built on any coherent premises. The root of the problem is a lack of clear principles. While I can make a premise that all tax levies are crimes, even Norquist is unwilling to argue that in a serious manner. And, once we agree that some taxes are necessary, we need some theory of fairness. Where Norquist’s argument fails most spectacularly is that he doesn’t have a theory of fairness at all. One could argue that a progressive system is fairest, or that a flat system is fairest. But no one can argue that a system with preferential tax subsidies is fairest, as it clearly benefits a small class of people at the expense of everyone else. Unlike the flat and progressive views of taxation, subsidies aren’t based on any idea of fairness, but on achieving some change in behavior.
There is one final part of Norquist’s column that I’d like to address. He says that the Republicans have a “commitment to shrinking the size of the federal government” and he says that the standoff over the debt limit is about reducing the deficit. When the Bush administration was in office, Dick Cheney openly asserted that “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.” And that is how the Republicans behaved. Every year from 2003 on, the Congress passed supplemental war-funding bills that were not paid for. These bills increased our deficit. They passed a Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit that was funded on borrowed money. Why is there no pledge to not spend borrowed money on bombs and pills?
The truth is that the Republicans care about taxes, not the deficit. The last Republican president to care about the deficit was Poppy Bush, and he lost his job because he broke his pledge to not raise taxes. That’s quite ironic considering the headline of Norquist’s column is Read My Lips: No New Taxes.
Poppy Bush did the responsible thing and put us on a path to prosperity in the 1990’s. Bill Clinton followed up on Poppy’s work to put us in a fiscally sound position. They had a lot of hard work to do to clean up after St. Ronnie’s mess. Obama is now trying to do the same thing. But rather than recognizing the available wisdom from our recent past, the Norquist-Republicans are trying to destroy the economy on purpose, not to reduce the deficit, but to keep taxes low for rich people.
what bugs me about so much of this is that Congress swears an oath of office:
I don’t see anything about swearing an oath to Grover Norquist in there, and yet for many of these people, he supersedes the constitution.
.
The Bush years enden in lost tax revenues, jobs going overseas and corporations fleeing to tax havens.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Let’s not mince words here – Clinton and his team bashed the HELL out of Bush the Elder for doing the right thing and raising taxes when it was needed. And this is part of the reason why Shit-For-Brains Norquist got the following he has in the first place – there is no reason for a Republican to support a tax increase if in the next election they’re going to be attacked by a Democratic opponent from the right. No Republican is ever going to let that happen to them again.
Clinton traded a short-term political advantage for a long term poisoning of the well when it comes to responsible politics by piling on like that.
If we could prevent preferential treatment in the tax code forever, you might be able to convince me to support a flat tax (and we’d eliminate other taxes like capital gains and just treat them as income).
Progressive income tax is preferable under all cases, but more revenue is more preferable to me. Of course this is in my Dream Utopia Land where lobbyists can no longer mess with the tax code and we have oodles and oodles of government services like free daycare, college, cash-assistance and housing…so it wouldn’t happen anyway.
Marginal utility theory would tell you why progressive income taxes are more helpful for the economy than flat taxes. The key to maintaining economic growth is a broad and diverse base of consumers who are not going through economic hardship all at the same time. With a highly progressive income tax, the marginal utility of squeezing the pay of an underling eventually reaches a point at which the marginal gains are erased be enough taxes to deter rampant wage theft. This flattens the income distribution over time.
The insidious part about the tax code is that it privileges incorporation by allowing write-off of costs. Individuals cannot write off their costs of going to work. And the deductions and exemptions on both sides just serve to obscure that preference for non-earned income in the tax code. So what happens are complicated arguments about accountants as to what should be considered a business cost (almost everything) and what should not. And you get into complicated depreciation schedules and tax credits on capital investments that allow companies like Fox to garner a profit from their income taxes. And that is all before you have the issues about where profits from overseas operations should be accounted for purposes of taxes.
What you wind up with in the US is multiple calculations of profit: one under GAAP, one for the SEC and the markets, and one for the IRS. Of those, only the SEC one is public and is biased to overestimate profits and underestimate losses.
As long as we are in dream utopia land, I suggest that the corporate tax rate be indexed to the ratio of the top compensation and the minimum wage. The tax liability would be the gross revenues times this ratio times the tax rate. That means that the tax rate set by Congress could be quite low and the tax would be highly progressive. The calculation would be simple. And tax lawyers and tax accountants would be unemployed or in another line of work. Just like what happened to the tax shelter sales force immediately after the Reagan tax code overhaul.
Oh of course. I’m just saying that you could, in theory, convince me to support a flat-tax rate in exchange for more government services and an understanding that there would be no carving out of the tax law with exemptions. That’s what we call “compromise” (I get more government services with more funding, you get a flatter tax rate). I don’t know that I’d take that compromise, either. But, in theory, I might be convinced.
You could never convince me to just adopt a flat tax rate with no exemptions without a healthy increase in government services, though.
Norquist is just an anarchist from the right.
Norquist maintains that taxation is theft.
Proudhon stated that property is theft.
It is the individualist illusion that human life can exist without society or institutions. And it is a reaction to the cultures of institutions in which the idea is that they can exist without human individuals.
Norquist plays on the realization by most people that wealthy individuals and corporations are shifting their tax burdens onto ordinary citizens. And that those wealthy individuals and corporations will never allow themselves to be taxed.
Instead of asserting that wealthy individuals and corporations must share in taxes the costs of government that they benefit from, Norquist argues that the government should be drowned in a bathtub and there should be no taxes (taxation is theft, remember, even taxes to pay for police and military).
Norquist runs the perfect Republican front group for wealthy individuals and corporations. And his quick reversal on the misunderstanding over expiration mirrors the reversal of the AARP over “changes to Social Security”.
It is not a big job to take apart the logic of political arguments. And conservative Republican arguments are the easiest of all. That is why you find these advocates reasserting forcefully instead of responding, filibustering, or hopping from one emotionally charged outrage to another in their search to get your gizzard and win the argument through your withdrawal from discussion.
subsidies aren’t based on any idea of fairness, but on achieving some change in behavior.
Not strictly true. Grover’s addressing poverty in bog-standard Pigovian fashion
If you want less of something, tax it.
Tax poor people
Fewer poor people.
QED
There is always the underlying assumption that indeed America is too big to fail, that she will assimilate all politial games, wars and overnight forgive and stand again when the sun rises. Meanwhile, should Grover’s pledge disintegrate tonight it would take a generation to repair.
It depends on what “fail” means.
The US still is the world’s largest economic unit, even in recession. And the situation with the banks is like the too-big-to-fail dynamics of the major banks vis-a-vis the US government.
If you owe the bank $10,000, that’s your problem.
If you owe the bank $14T, that’s the bank’s problem.
Just watch how the banks in Europe suddenly decided to take a few writeoffs in Greece in the latest round of negotiation. If Greece defaults, the markets will savage most all of the EU countries, which then could be driven to default. Then where would the bankers be?
Generations to repair. Just because of compounded educational deficits.
This whole debate has got it exactly wrong. Money is originated by the Government by printing notes and minting cash and also by Banks creating money ex nihilo by extending credit to others out of reserves they don’t actual have – I.e. banks lend far more than they have on deposit from depositors – and the difference effectively creates new money in the form of credit.
Governments then spend the money they create into the economy through contracts and wages etc. and it is only then that Corporations (Other than banks- see above) and individuals get their hands on it. Government then recirculate some of that money through taxing corporations and individuals to reduce the inflation that would occur if they simply printed new money for everything they need – and use this -once again – to fund their activities through paying wages and contracting corporations.
Of course once the money is in the economy it circulates all over the world – for instance to pay for imports and in return for exports. But the big fallacy is that it was ever the “taxpayer’s”money in the first place. (whose head is on the note and who printed it?). It is Government created sovereign currency used to pay for goods and services and taxed in order to prevent too much of it being created all the time thus leading to (potentially) unlimited inflation.
In theory, the Government could simply print $14 Trillion and pay of the debt using that money – but the result would be huge inflation over time. Perhaps that is even the most “progressive” solution as the wealthy would suffer a huge loss of value as inflation eroded the real wealth of their holdings and those without assets would be relatively unaffected (except for future purchases).
But because, in theory, this could result in Weimar levels of inflation Governments tend to try and limit new money creation to something slightly above the level of real value creation resulting in only moderate inflation based on the equation Inflation = Money supply-real wealth creation. However one consequence of this arithmetic is that Governments can only run surpluses if the private sector is in Deficit (as happened in the late Clinton years) and this tends to result in a recession as private companies seek to repair their balance sheets by cutting back on expenditure and activity.
However the converse is also true: The economy can only grow if the private sector is in surplus and this can only happen if the Government runs a deficit. This is why Governments debts always tend to grow over time despite short periods when they may be in balance or in surplus. Government debt isn’t a problem unless it becomes so big, compared to the size of the economy, that servicing that debt takes too much money out of the real economy. Sovereign Governments, with sovereign currency then have two choices: print money – a la quantitative easing – to reduce the debt (and risk inflation) or pay down a lot of the debt (and risk deflating the economy because you are reducing the amount of money you are spending into the economy (see first paragraph above).
But let us be clear: It is Government (not taxpayers) money we are talking about. No taxpayer is allowed to create their own money – bar private banks lending money they don’t actually have – an activity which should be much more tightly regulated than it currently is as it results in asset price bubbles if allowed to go too far.
What the Republicans are doing, in threatening to prevent the increase in the Debt ceiling, is threatening to create a situation where the Government has no choice but to dramatically cut spending which will result in a massive depression and with many businesses going to the wall because they depend on the cash flow which Government money creation and spending puts into the economy.
Remember – the private sector, collectively, can only be in surplus if the Government is in deficit. That’s a law of arithmetic, not some statement by a radical economist. And that is why the aptly named Wall street is going ballistic at the prospect, they know that the private sector will collapse if the Government dramatically reduces the amount of money it spends into the economy. Wall street is with Obama on this one, and for good reason.
The huge fallacy of the Republican position is to compare the finances of the state with those of a family. Of course a family has to reduce its spending if its income reduces. A family can’t print its own money. But if all families have to reduce their expenditure because the economy has collapsed because the Government is spending less money into it, then the economy enters a vicious downward cycle which can only end when the Government opens the money creation and spending taps again.
The problem is, if this is done too late, that much productive capacity within the economy will already have been lost – as nearly happened to the US Car industry had the Government not intervened in the nick of time. Most tea partiers are probably just ignorant of how macro-economics differs from family micro-economics, but their mainstream republican allies have been left in no doubt by Wall street and the business sector that their survival as the World’s leading economy depends on the debt ceiling being raised.
However their hatred of Obama is such that they would prefer to destroy the current slow upturn in the economy in the hope of defeating Obama politically and getting their own hands on the cash generating powers of the Government again in 2013. Then they can do what they always do: siphon the cash to their friends rather than to those who need it most. The price, however, could be very great. The USA’s place as the world’s leading economy will be rapidly and perhaps irretrievably diminished.
If you are going the “print money route”, around $2T should be sufficient.
After all the original $100T estimated credit default swap exposure was wound down to less panicky levels with a $16T injection from the Fed.
And not all $14T is coming due all at once. A $2T payment would steady the markets and scare bondholders that the strategy might be for government to repurchase its debt too quickly. It what got their attention when Gore was running for President.
Which is why Bush had to act like a budget surplus was a negative debt. It’s your money; give it back to the folks who created it. Pay no attention to that $5T behind the curtain.
is anyone watching this town hall?
“what will you do about discrimination against atheists?”
“will you end the drug war?”
i’m waiting for some serious questions about the debt ceiling and deficit reduction.
AAAAH, someone just brought up Roosevelt’s 1937 fuckup. First real question I heard all day.
Payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits. That’s what’s defined as “not cutting back.”
Christ on a stick, every single “cut” better be back-loaded into 2020 and rescinded in 2014.
the wingnuts are getting ready to campaign on the Obama threat to social security.
Predictable, self-inflicted wound.
Has CNN declared SuperPAC for Erick Erickson? Maybe Colbert should see about that.
They didn’t even need to do that. I had to correct the record to all of my older relatives when he said SS checks might not go out if the limit isn’t raised. They got freaked the fuck out and started lambasting him (nope, they didn’t blame the Republicans). I had to explain to them the real situation before they understood.
Google Ads strike again. This diary draws the large “No Blank Check” ad from Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS.
And so does FDL.
Is this poor algorithm, poor ad placement on Crossroads GPS part, or a devious scheme? </snark>