It’s time to do some math. There are 435 slots available in the House of Representatives, but because of a couple of vacancies (e.g. Anthony Weiner) it only takes 217 votes to get a majority. The Republicans control 240 seats, so to pass a bill with no Democratic votes they can lose twenty-three votes, but not twenty-four. Now, let’s look at a couple of facts that Speaker Boehner must overcome.
No sooner did House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) unveil his plan to raise the country’s debt ceiling and avoid default than a coalition of conservative groups and lawmakers panned the proposal.
The Cut, Cap and Balance Coalition is a group of more than 100 conservative groups and several dozen lawmakers in both chambers who have called for passage of a balanced budget amendment in exchange for a vote to raise the country’s debt ceiling. The group said in a statement Monday afternoon that the plan put forth by House Republican leaders “falls short of meeting (the coalition’s) principles.”
And:
Absent an agreement between Boehner and Reid, the House and the Senate are headed for a high-wire act this week.
Neither leader was certain that he could rally the votes to win — with Boehner making the first move for a possible Wednesday vote. With few House Democrats expected to support his approach, Boehner would need the support of an overwhelming majority of his 240-member conference.
But those hopes were dampened Monday by conservative opposition to the plan, highlighted by Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), who leads a conservative caucus of more than 170 GOP members. Jordan is one of 39 House Republicans who previously took a pledge vowing to increase the debt ceiling only in return for Congress sending to the states a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget.
Rep. Jordan heads the ultra-conservative Republican Study Committee which is a 170-strong subset of the House Republican caucus. So we have a few numbers to look at. Boehner needs 217 votes and cannot lose more than 23 Republicans unless he picks up at least one Democratic vote. He has 39 members committed to voting against any debt-ceiling raise unless both houses of Congress pass a Balanced Budget Amendment (requiring a two-thirds vote in each) and send it to the states for ratification. He does not have the blessing of the Cut, Cap, and Balance Coalition which boasts over 100 members. And he doesn’t have the blessing of the head of the Republican Study Committee who represents 170 members.
Does it sound to you like he can pass his bill? Maybe if he had Karl Rove, Dick Cheney, and Tom DeLay cracking skulls this would be an easier task. But how committed are Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy to saving Boehner’s lazy, drunk ass? Maybe he can get it done, but count me as somewhat dubious.
And then he’s got another problem, which is Harry Reid isn’t going to take up his bill because the president has vowed to veto it anyway, so it’s a waste of time. And we don’t have much time.
Here’s what Boehner should have done a long time ago. He should have told his caucus that he was going to pass a hike in the debt ceiling even if he had to do it entirely on Nancy Pelosi’s terms. If they stood together, they’d get a better deal, but if they remained divided the Democrats would really get to set the conditions of the deal. The Republicans would not have wound up getting as much as they’re being offered by the president right now, but they’d also be able to pass something instead of sending us into a calamitous default. But he wasn’t willing to be a leader and anticipate the end game. Instead of standing up to the Crazy, he humored them. He even encouraged them.
Boehner forgot that he is the Establishment and acted like some kind of insurgent. That’s not his job. The Republicans only hold one third of the government. They can’t do whatever they want. They have no business destroying the economy on purpose because their leader is drunk before dinner and can’t perform his duties adequately.
What if they’re destroying the economy on purpose because an economy in flames edges the country closer to a Banana Republican oligarchy?
I’m not sure why any of this is particularly bad for the Republicans. Not politically and even less so philosophically. Seems to me that they’re doing a fine job for themselves.
At least so far. Can’t really tell until the end game, but as of right now we have the Dems begging to cut a trillion dollar from an economy in recession and not raise taxes on the rich, in exchange for a mundane procedural vote. And if the Rs keep saying no, and crash the economy, does that put more or less power in the hands of the insane nativist right and the billionaire Birchers?
Here comes Cantor’s knife.
When does the House Majority get a chance to change speakers?
I don’t know but since Jordan is from Ohio and Orange Julius can’t control him, that means The Cryin’ Man’s time is not long with the Speaker’s gavel. He’s been exposed as wearing no clothes(Yeah .. I know he’s not emperor .. but it applies otherwise)
Upon resignation, immediately.
To remove him, I think — there’s a CRS report on this out there, but my Goodle-fu ain’t up to scratch today — would require proceeding under suspension of the rules, which is a 2/3rds vote.
Pelosi may be better served in her purposes by a wounded Speaker in situ.
Thanks.
Interesting. No wonder Obama has been taking Orange Bo-glo golfing.
Do we have a Democratic lined up yet to put him out of his misery in 2012?
If the House doesn’t pass a bill to raise the debt debt ceiling (one that doesn’t require a constitutional amendment), then it will be undeniably their fault when there’s a default. They need to pass something comparatively reasonable, so if the world economy crashes they can at least claim, look this wasn’t our fault; we passed a bill to do the right thing, and Democrats killed it.
Boehner understands this, and so everything he’s been doing has been to wheedle and cajole his own party to pass something. He’s been trying to convince them he’s one of them, he’s been calling them to stick together, he’s been criticizing the President and telling them how they have to defeat him, and he’s been telling them they need to pass something that while not quite cap and balance, is based on the same principles. They’re not buying it, and there’s no reason they should.
He’s engineered things so that if he now does the right thing by the country, bringing up a bill to raise the debt limit that Democrats will support along with a few Republicans, he’ll be seen as a betrayer; right wing Republicans will be hanging him in effigy. I wonder if there are enough Republicans in the House left who’d be willing to vote for a bill to raise the debt ceiling if Democrats also supported it.
I wonder, too.
I’ve been wondering this for months in the comments. It has probably been my main question on the entire issue.
” … least claim, look this wasn’t our fault; we passed a bill to do the right thing, and Democrats killed it.”
I’m not sure why you’d think they need to actually pass a bill in order to blame the Democrats. They passed Slash, Burn, and Shred, that’s more than enough. And they don’t even need that; they can just say, ‘It wasn’t our fault, Obama kept moving the goalposts.’ Or ‘We offered six bills, but the Democrats rejected each and every one.’
Of course they’re going to claim it’s all the Democrats fault. The question is, beyond the most committed, who’s going to believe them? As it stands now, if the country goes into default, there will be very little ambiguity as to who’s to blame. As I understand it, a bill to raise the debt ceiling is supposed to start in the House, and Republicans have a solid majority in the House. If they passed Boehner’s proposal and the Senate killed it, they could at least point to that and said they were willing to deal. But all they have to point to is a ridiculous bill that says they’ll raise the debt ceiling when the constitution of the United States has been amended, that’s not going to convince anyone but the true believers. I’ve been increasingly cynical over the years, but even I’m surprised Republicans didn’t even pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling (coupled with cuts).
Republicans did much better as a minority party than a majority. As a minority party, they could keep a pure stand, and then force the Democratic party to have to bargain with it’s most conservative members. They got the benefit of making legislation more conservative without having to take any responsibility.
I hope you’re right, but blame is easy for the Republicans. They’re incredibly good at blame. They’ve institutionalized finger-pointing. If this comes down the blamstorming, we’re lost.
“The question is, beyond the most committed [conservatives], who’s going to believe them?”
Everyone except the most committed liberals, possibly. The president’s a Democrat. That Nancy Perogi lady is a Democrat. Even the vice-president is a Democrat, so that’s all three check and balances.
Meanwhile, if the economy is in flames, nobody’s looking for nuance. Who’s the president? A Democrat. He didn’t force them to fix things? (Forget that you and I know he can’t make them do anything). Then screw him, he’s a crappy president.
(On the other hand, if Obama uses any of the short-cuts, I think he’ll get a real boost for solving the problem, even though the Republicans will scream and he’ll express regret and dismay instead of taking a victory lap.)
My guess is that he loses more Republicans than he gains Democrats with any concessions. And just the fact of getting Democrats on board might be a tactical issue with a lot of the GOP caucus. They are not used to losing or having no cover.
And then Eric Cantor’s knife would come out and Boehner would no longer be Speaker. He had to basically grovel to the conservative wing to get the job in the first place – and to keep it after Republicans lost the House. He’s been groveling since he got the Speaker’s chair and he doesn’t know any different. He’s not a leader – he’s a puffed up suit who has the job because it’s historically the most influential position in town and he’s all about peddling influence.
I suspect that it’s going to come down to a choice for Boehner – does he want to lose his Speaker’s gavel because he negotiated a debt ceiling increase, or does he want to lose his Speaker’s gavel because he walked the country into a government shutdown. He’s going to lose it either way – perhaps he hasn’t quite realized it yet.
I’m still betting on a voice vote, clean debt ceiling increase bill that passes with a majority of Democrats and a handful of Republican votes (we’ll never know exactly with a voice vote). Possibly with Boehner negotiating with Cantor so Boehner steps down from the Speaker position afterward in exchange for Cantor not whipping the Tea Party into actively opposing the clean bill until its too late.
Completely agree! Your comment reminded me of the last time I was on the train – a young woman spent an hour on the phone with her boyfriend, trying desperately to get this guy to discuss something difficult that had just happened between them. That conversation made it clear that the relationship was over. She just didn’t know it yet.
I had tears in my eyes as I listened to the woman on the train, but I don’t have the least bit of sympathy for Boner. His actions have caused a lot of damage, and he is not equipped to comprehend his role and what he’s done.
And then Eric Cantor’s knife would come out and Boehner would no longer be Speaker.
That already happened. Now, it’s just a matter of how long until the coroner confirms the death, so to speak.
After seeing last night’s speech and then seeing David Plouffe on MSNBC, and seeing how low key they were both playing this, I get the feeling that the script has been written and the plan is in place, and that Obama is now just playing out all the steps.
I am SO glad that Obama has David Plouffe beside him again; they are a magnificent team.
I got this in email from the campaign last night, and I was really surprised:
Obama is still having his birthday party on August 3, so I’m gonna guess that he does not plan for the country to be in crisis mode then. Interesting.
Well, the party plans may or may not be on actual hold. Announcing at this point that it’s all off because we’re going down in flames (I know, I know, he’d never do it so dramatically, but the media would play it that way) would send the wrong signals. Obama needs to walk the tightrope of getting it into low-info heads that this is a BFD crisis, all right, while still looking calm, confident, and in control, ready to save the day. I thought his speech last night was precisely aimed at achieving that, a very good step along the path he’s no doubt gamed out for getting us all out of this alive.
Really? Did you hear Plouffe last night?
Calvin, I am not sure whether you are literally asking whether David Plouffe was on last night, or whether I watched it, or if your question is intended to take issue with my take on the situation after seeing David Plouffe.
Can you help me out by clarifying? Thanks.
They are playing low key because the negotiation kabuki, if not the negotiations, is still going on. And Plouffe is not going to stop on Obama’s tone or message by providing too much information.
And it is quite possible to have a birthday party in the midst of crisis. The guests show up, and you make a quick appearance to get Happy Birthday sung to you as a break from crisis management. Guess what his wish is going to be? Oh and to make some statement that will be leaked to Politico if not covered by the media.
There’s no way Obama’s political team lets him have a birthday party in the middle of a government shutdown/default crisis. It’s too much Bush partying while New Orleans was flooding.
If they do let it go through they’re the worst bunch of image handlers ever. Having him cancel the party quietly but with a note that it’s due to the government shutdown/budget crisis/whatever would be the way to go.
agree with BooMan. last night, they reported that the crazy azz mofos said no deal to his bill, so my question was, WHAT THE FUCK BILL was Orange Glo talking about when he went on TV?
LOL When you wrote “Orange Glo”, my mind added “mofo”
Was that intentional sprung rhyme or has my upbringing plus hip-hop seized up my brain?
“Boehner should have … told his caucus that he was going to pass a hike in the debt ceiling even if he had to do it entirely on Nancy Pelosi’s terms. If they stood together, they’d get a better deal, but if they remained divided the Democrats would really get to set the conditions of the deal. The Republicans would not have wound up getting as much as they’re being offered by the president right now, but they’d also be able to pass something instead of sending us into a calamitous default. But he wasn’t willing to be a leader and anticipate the end game. Instead of standing up to the Crazy, he humored them. He even encouraged them.”
Truer words were never written, Boo. And I don’t see why he couldn’t still do it, other than that he’s Boner.
You really don’t see that doing what Booman proposed – while better for the nation and better for the Republican party long term – would have killed Boehner’s Speaker job? Cantor had been pushing from the other side – hoping to get Boehner to stumble. The more Cantor pushes, the more Boehner moves towards the Tea Party the more Cantor pushes. They’re in a game of chicken and Boehner doesn’t want to be the one who blinks.
In retrospect I don’t see how Boehner plays it any other way, except maybe to figure out earlier that his days are numbered and to pre-emptively step down and let Cantor have the gavel and let HIM deal with the consequences of the crazies in the House.
Of course I see that it would have killed his speaker job. But by this point it should be clear to him that his speaker job is practically over anyway, and that even if he could keep it, there’s no way he could continue and keep whatever pitiful excuse for a soul he might have left. If I were in Boner’s position at this point I would just say to Cantor and his crew, “Fuck me? — Fu-u-u-u-ck you!” Talk to Nancy and get the goddamn thing over with. He would then emerge a hero of sorts for anyone in this country who isn’t a total maniac,i.e. for putting country above party, and I’m sure he could then easily find an honest (?) living in the financial sector. I really don’t think that zoo parade would survive very long under Cantor.
Honestly if I were one of Boehner’s “constituents” (i.e. a corporate fat cat) I’d tell him that if he gets this through – even if it costs him his Speaker position – I have a spot at my company waiting for him. It pays the same as the Speaker gig and its minimal work. He can have it until he retires at, oh, 65.
And I think it would be pretty easy to pull off so long as he doesn’t want the Speaker job when he’s finished. Clean debt ceiling bill in the middle of the night with a voice vote. If he has to see if he can negotiate with Cantor to get him to NOT actively oppose the bill in exchange for Boehner’s promise to step down once the bill is signed by the President.
And then a hearty “fuck-yall” speech after the signing ceremony where he flips the bird to Cantor and rides off to his new six figure gig.
The fact remains that we are stuck with the zoo animals for another year and a half. Regardless of who is swinging the gavel, the lunatics will still be running the show for the remainder of Obama’s term.
Gee. How many Speakers can they run through before November 2012?
Let’s recall that Boehner got the job because literally almost no one else wanted it. He got to keep the minority leader position because his only opposition was Cantor, and Cantor didn’t have a significant faction to support him in ’06. When Republicans took control, Boehner sufficiently grovelled to keep the Speaker position, and Cantor has continued to sharpen the knife.
Cantor isn’t going to have to watch his back the Boehner has because there’s no one sharpening their knives near Cantor’s back yet. You could put forth some tea party luminaries, but most of them AVOID actual responsibility because actual responsibility means the possibility of failure.
“… because there’s no one sharpening their knives near Cantor’s back yet.”
Let him get appointed and I’d give it about a week.
Lord of the Flies on our political island until 2012. We could be in for a ride where this ends up looking like the best of times.
Maybe:
Cantor to GOP: Quit whining and vote
Speaker Cantor steps to the fore.
I shouldn’t be at all surprised, this makes perfect sense. Cantor’s previous role of being the one willing to walk out on negotiations with Democrats now makes him the one who can pull House Republicans into line. . .maybe. It’s sort of a good cop bad cop strategy. I still don’t see how they do it with so many House Republicans having sworn to oppose any compromise less than a constitutional amendment. But if they do, it could Democrats into an uncomfortable position.
This is a civil war–not in the conventional sense that would imply two more or less evenly matched sides in terms of numbers. One side is vastly fewer in number but has enormous wealth, power and more warm, activist seats on the Supreme Court.
Boehner was expendable, and doomed, the day he took the oversized gavel. His speech last night looked like a classic hostage video. McConnell’s handpicked Senate candidate in his home state was humiliated by Rand Paul, who proceeded to show him zero respect upon assuming the seat after the election. The fact that the ostensible leaders of the Republican Party have no power or control over their members makes this situation far more dangerous than we might have imagined.
Because it’s a civil war and the so-called leaders are not in control, the normal rules and decorum don’t apply. There is a reason Republicans haven’t accepted what could objectively be termed a smashing victory in the debt ceiling deal: the reason is that that was not the goal.
Think about Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Maine and Florida and how swiftly out of the box the newly crowned Republican Governors declared war on the citizens of their respective states. Because they were states and not the country as a whole, the stunning series of moves happened as if in slow motion, off to the side and not fully in the MSM’s line of sight. How many astonishingly large rallies in Madison were all but ignored by the media, MSNBC included?
This whole sorry affair is another coordinated front. Last night Boehner used the same phrasing that Karl Rove’s American Crossroads ads have been employing in targeted markets, and which I’m sure Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, etc. are using as we speak.
If it sometimes seems as if Obama has been fighting a different fight than what we think we see, I honestly believe it’s because he has realized for awhile now, of course to his private horror, that it’s far more than a screechy cabal of intransigent Tea Bagger Congressman that he’s up against. This is the moment they’ve chosen to launch an all-out assault. In the current debt-ceiling phony crisis, that means they have no intention whatsoever of settling–the GOAL is default and chaos. Obama needed to make sure of this, and thus his role in the Kabuki.
I even think the leaders of this well-funded cult have the cooperation of some on Wall Street, and certainly they have the likes of the Koch Bros. on board. These traitors can make money on anything, and a crisis is a golden opportunity to cash in.
Remember this: unlike Boehner, but just like the Republican Governors, these people couldn’t care less about preserving their political viability. They are Trojan Horses, on a mission to destroy from within. No facts, no appeal to their missing humanity and no amount of reasoning will dissuade them, and it is through the very chaos they seek to create that they hope to take over. Be very afraid….
Party leaders rarely have power over their members. In the sense of absolute power over every member. Mitch McConnell’s Republican lockstep unity before 2010 was unprecedented. Members of Congress don’t get to be members of Congress by avoiding challenging established leaders. From 2008 to 2010, party was more important to Republicans than constituents because they were trying to stop an agenda that most of their constituents knew little about. But taking the House meant that Republicans had to have their own agenda, and now constituents are starting to wake up and ask questions. That begins to split the unity of the caucus.
Of course, the true believers and opportunist like Michele Bachmann and Alan West don’t listen to their constituents. The media carpet bombing of their opponents does the trick.
I’m beginning to think maybe Boehner knows what he’s doing after all. If he can convince House Republicans to pass his proposal, Democrats will be in a rough spot. By passing it right at the deadline, he’ll have insured that voting against it will be effectively voting for the country to be unable to pay its bills, at least temporarily. Democrats will be pressured to allow it to pass, and it will be more difficult for them to object that it’s blackmail, after they’ve already been negotiating with Republicans for months, or that it doesn’t raise revenues, when they’ve proposed a bill that doesn’t raise revenues themselves. As for it only being temporary, well isn’t that better than nothing? Surely Democrats won’t send the economy into recession over such a point. Keeping Cantor pure so that he can be in a position to make the case to House Republicans seems inspired now.
And on the other hand, if he can’t pass it, well he tried for the best deal he could. Instead, he’ll just have to pass the Democrat plan, which accedes to all of his previous demands; and Democrats will have to do the heavy lifting on it, taking responsibility both for a vote to raise the debt ceiling and for spending cuts. And this is if he loses.
You paint the very doomsday scenario that has been swirling in my head all day. If they pass anything, then the ball will be back in the Democrat’s court. And here we go once again, faced with the real possibility of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
While it sounds like Boehner has an uphill climb, there is always a possibility that his caucus will cobble together enough votes to squeak something through. There is just so much speculation and conflicting information out there right now that it’s hard to separate fact from kabuki.