It’s time to do some math. There are 435 slots available in the House of Representatives, but because of a couple of vacancies (e.g. Anthony Weiner) it only takes 217 votes to get a majority. The Republicans control 240 seats, so to pass a bill with no Democratic votes they can lose twenty-three votes, but not twenty-four. Now, let’s look at a couple of facts that Speaker Boehner must overcome.
No sooner did House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) unveil his plan to raise the country’s debt ceiling and avoid default than a coalition of conservative groups and lawmakers panned the proposal.
The Cut, Cap and Balance Coalition is a group of more than 100 conservative groups and several dozen lawmakers in both chambers who have called for passage of a balanced budget amendment in exchange for a vote to raise the country’s debt ceiling. The group said in a statement Monday afternoon that the plan put forth by House Republican leaders “falls short of meeting (the coalition’s) principles.”
And:
Absent an agreement between Boehner and Reid, the House and the Senate are headed for a high-wire act this week.
Neither leader was certain that he could rally the votes to win — with Boehner making the first move for a possible Wednesday vote. With few House Democrats expected to support his approach, Boehner would need the support of an overwhelming majority of his 240-member conference.
But those hopes were dampened Monday by conservative opposition to the plan, highlighted by Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), who leads a conservative caucus of more than 170 GOP members. Jordan is one of 39 House Republicans who previously took a pledge vowing to increase the debt ceiling only in return for Congress sending to the states a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget.
Rep. Jordan heads the ultra-conservative Republican Study Committee which is a 170-strong subset of the House Republican caucus. So we have a few numbers to look at. Boehner needs 217 votes and cannot lose more than 23 Republicans unless he picks up at least one Democratic vote. He has 39 members committed to voting against any debt-ceiling raise unless both houses of Congress pass a Balanced Budget Amendment (requiring a two-thirds vote in each) and send it to the states for ratification. He does not have the blessing of the Cut, Cap, and Balance Coalition which boasts over 100 members. And he doesn’t have the blessing of the head of the Republican Study Committee who represents 170 members.
Does it sound to you like he can pass his bill? Maybe if he had Karl Rove, Dick Cheney, and Tom DeLay cracking skulls this would be an easier task. But how committed are Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy to saving Boehner’s lazy, drunk ass? Maybe he can get it done, but count me as somewhat dubious.
And then he’s got another problem, which is Harry Reid isn’t going to take up his bill because the president has vowed to veto it anyway, so it’s a waste of time. And we don’t have much time.
Here’s what Boehner should have done a long time ago. He should have told his caucus that he was going to pass a hike in the debt ceiling even if he had to do it entirely on Nancy Pelosi’s terms. If they stood together, they’d get a better deal, but if they remained divided the Democrats would really get to set the conditions of the deal. The Republicans would not have wound up getting as much as they’re being offered by the president right now, but they’d also be able to pass something instead of sending us into a calamitous default. But he wasn’t willing to be a leader and anticipate the end game. Instead of standing up to the Crazy, he humored them. He even encouraged them.
Boehner forgot that he is the Establishment and acted like some kind of insurgent. That’s not his job. The Republicans only hold one third of the government. They can’t do whatever they want. They have no business destroying the economy on purpose because their leader is drunk before dinner and can’t perform his duties adequately.
