Robert Reich is an incredibly smart man whose politics pretty much mirror my own, but he’s got the same liberal myopia that I see from friends and colleagues throughout the blogosphere and the activist community. He wants to know, for example, why we’re stuck debating the debt ceiling, deficits, and debt when we have persistently high unemployment, low economic growth, and increasing income disparity. Here’s how he explains it to himself:
Part of the answer is a Republican Party that’s the most irresponsible and rigidly ideological I’ve ever witnessed.
Part of the answer is the continuing gravitational pull of the Great Recession.
But another part of the answer lies with the president — and his inability or unwillingness to use the bully pulpit to tell Americans the truth, and mobilize them for what must be done.
This is the “lack of leadership’ argument. The premise of which is that the president can use the bully pulpit to educate and mobilize the public so that they can influence Congress and push them to support the president’s agenda. He can provide cover for his vulnerable members and he can scare or cajole his opponents into cooperation or capitulation.
Another variety of this argument puts the onus on the people…FDR’s admonition that organizers “make him to do something” by creating public demand for it. This latter argument is more realistic and useful than the first.
Let’s look at where we stand this weekend. As soon as the ink was dry from the 2010 midterm elections it was clear that we would be seeing something never seen before. We would be seeing a link between raising the debt ceiling and cutting the deficit dramatically. I believe MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell discussed this on the air on election night, or within days of it anyway. So many new members had pledged to make this link that it was inevitable that the link would be made.
How did the president respond? At first he made the obvious argument that such a linkage had never been made before and should not be made now. But it wasn’t something the Republicans could be deterred from doing by mere rhetoric. In fact, raising the debt ceiling polls very poorly and educating the public about it would entail a months-long effort to justify the government’s inability to live within its means. The president’s mission wouldn’t be merely to improve those poll numbers to parity, but to convince an overwhelming number of people so that immense pressure would be placed on Republicans serving in conservative districts to abandon their linkage. This would have been an impossible task, even if his own party remained united behind him. But they wouldn’t have remained united; increasingly they would have become divided.
As should be obvious by now, the new Speaker of the House never had the votes to pass a clean hike in the debt ceiling. He never had the votes to pass any reasonable or acceptable or even sane hike in the debt ceiling. And this wasn’t any great secret. By no later than early spring it was clear that decoupling was impossible and that some deal must be struck. It was also clear before long that the Speaker couldn’t deliver any fair or reasonable deal. What I’m saying here is that our present situation was not avoidable. We should not be debating why we’re debating the debt ceiling. We’re debating it because we lost the 2010 midterms, badly, to a bunch of fire-breathing debt-crusaders. It’s fair to place some blame on the president for those midterm losses, but we have to keep things in context.
It was probably around the time that the president became firmly convinced that what we’re facing this weekend was unavoidable that he did something to protect himself politically. He offered to accept linkage but make it contingent on a Grand Bargain that would involve sacrifices on all sides. He put Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid on the table and asked the Republicans to reciprocate with a willingness to cut tax loopholes on private jet owners and Big Oil companies. As he suspected, and as was soon confirmed for him, the answer to all concessions was no.
He crafted his proposal so that he would get some tangible benefits if the Republicans unexpectedly agreed to cooperate. He would get an extension of unemployment insurance. He would backload the cuts to protect this year’s and next year’s budget, he’d get an extension past next election day, and he’d get tax revenues. But these things just made it less likely that the Republicans would agree to a Grand Bargain.
The president did use his bully pulpit to talk about fairness in the tax code and shared sacrifice. He did talk about protecting the most important investments, like education, research, and clean energy. But, what he didn’t do is talk about the need to stimulate the economy with new government spending. He gave up on Keynesian economics completely and even began making arguments against those principles, like saying that “in tough times the government needs to tighten its belt.” On this last bit, the president can be rightly criticized for triangulation. There wasn’t much point in asking for more money or in complaining about not getting it, but he didn’t need to push an anti-Keynesian argument.
Yet, the central reality presented by the Midterms’ outcome was that the president would not be able to help the economy by injecting money into it through congressional appropriations. He was wise to recognize that reality rather than to fight it.
Given the battleground he faced this year, the best he could do is to protect the recovery by backloading as much of the cuts as he could, getting an extension of unemployment insurance, and getting the debt ceiling debate off the table until after the election. Even those limited goals would have to be extracted at a staggering cost, if they could be extracted at all. So, much of the planning was political. How could he win the public debate over who was responsible for the debt ceiling crisis? How could he keep Democrats united and Republicans divided?
The answer to that was to be willing to compromise while the Republicans refused to do so. This was easy to do considering the Republicans refusal, even inability, to make concessions. To be sure, the president has taken a hit in the polls. His willingness to compromise hurts his standing with his base and makes him look weak. Meanwhile, dysfunction in DC has hurt the poll numbers of all politicians. But, comparatively, the president has done better than anyone else, and his party has largely won the argument.
For every Robert Reich who is carping on the left, there are a dozen unhappy Republicans who think the GOP is acting recklessly. John Boehner’s speakership is in ashes. Michele Bachmann in now polling about evenly with Mitt Romney. The GOP is having a huge internal fight and is loathed and mistrusted by the entire international community. They have been exposed for the radicals that they are, and the people disagree overwhelmingly with their behavior and their approach.
It could have been different. The president could have refused to accept any coupling of the debt ceiling to budget cuts. He could have, rather, argued he needed more money to stimulate the economy. He could have tried to convince people of that. But, in that case, we’d still be here this weekend facing default. And we’d be the party divided and unpopular. Obama, not Boehner, would be the one whose career was a smoking husk. And the people would be blaming the Democrats for their intransigence, instead of the other way around.
The truth is, the 2010 midterms were a catastrophe. They had horrible consequences. This weekend was one of those consequences, and it couldn’t be avoided through “leadership.”
You’re arguing about this as if the tax cut deal in December was never cut. You’re also arguing about this as if we didn’t have a Lame Duck Congress to pass a debt ceiling deal.
The fact is, this could have been avoided. I think Obama was trying to be clever by half, and wanted to use this debt ceiling deal in order to pass his Grand Bargain at the threat of a gun. The budget battle? He’d never get legislation to pass the Senate that would result in a Grand Bargain, just maybe some severe cuts like we’re seeing to pass the debt ceiling. So his thinking was to use this Grand Bargain to hit The Big Three, backload cuts, and possibly get some stimulus. I think this was stupid and incredibly reckless.
Moreover, the American people want results, not just rhetoric; this is true. But by embracing their rhetoric and “trying to at least get some results,” he isn’t differentiating himself. I think after the budget battle he would be better to try and pass every single stimulus measure he could and see it fail. That way there is a clear distinction in who is failing to create jobs.
Explain it for me then. Explain how his lame-duck Congress could have extended the debt ceiling.
What’s there to explain? You think he’d have had a harder time extended a clean debt ceiling when Pelosi held the Speakership with 250+ seats and a Senate of 58?
Our biggest bargaining chip was the Bush tax cuts. Theirs was always the debt ceiling (as you said, they made it clear very early what they were going to do). A debt ceiling deal should have been given in exchange for the tax cuts.
I don’t know if they tried that, but I very much doubt that the GOP would have gone for it. There would have been a revolt. They debt ceiling is more valuable to them than the Bush tax cuts. Plus, removing the Bush tax cuts would have removed much of the budget cutting urgency.
Well, they never tried it. I think they would have. What choice would they have? You seriously think Senate Republicans would filibuster an extension of TAX CUTS? Dream on.
Oh, definitely.
They wouldn’t have screwed their freshman class like that and helped fix the budget problem before they could come in and make a stink about it.
The Bush tax cuts are going to expire anyway, but the effort to drown the government will go on.
The Bush tax cuts are tied to the debt. Without them, the argument that we need $4 trillion in cuts over the next 10 years is gone. And we’d currently have more money to run the government during this ridiculous debate.
Obama could also be countering the Republican argument by offering up the Bush cuts, today. “You want $4 trillion in cuts. Fine, I’ll let the Bush cuts expire. Done. Now make a counter offer.”
But he isn’t doing that, is he?
Obama can’t make them expire faster. He’s already going to let them expire. What are you even talking about?
Right. I remember when he was going to let them expire on schedule in 2010. He kept telling us that until the first week of December when he caved.
And right now, he isn’t saying he’ll let the cuts expire. That’s not listed among the savings in any of the deficit reduction plans on the table. His stand is that he’s going to keep the cuts for those making under $250,000. That gives Republicans the same trump card they had last time around and now they know for certain that it works.
I don’t think anyone in Congress believes the Bush tax cuts are going away after 2012. They certainly won’t unless he makes the argument specifically.
Right. I remember when he was going to let them expire on schedule in 2010. He kept telling us that until the first week of December when he caved.
Caved my ass. In 2010, he traded them away for a bunch of stuff, like an extension of UI insurance (probably not important to you, but kinda nice for other people), the New START accords, DADT repeal, and an overhaul of the food safety system.
In 2012, there won’t be any such trade to be made. Without a lame-duck Democratic Congress to pass a list of items on his agenda, Obama will have no reason to trade away a tax cut extension.
Oh, but nevermind all of that. Politics is about the character of people you see on teevee.
As you said downthread, “Republicans want things. It’s impossible for them to get those things without Democratic votes.”
So, you think this is a great strategy for the Democrats to us, right up until they actually use it, at which point you describe it as “caving.”
And let’s stop pretending that the Republicans as a whole don’t intend to raise the debt ceiling. They do. Their corporate sponsors will abandon them if they literally force the economy over a cliff. Voters will abandon them if they refuse to raise it under any circumstances.
We’re going to ultimately get a debt limit increase. Obama and the Democrats have named their price and it’s far too high. They could have stood firm, demanding that the country not be held hostage to the Republican agenda. They could make a modest deal when everything got pushed to the point of no return. Instead they’ve given Republicans all they asked for, and now the Republicans wonder if they can get even more.
have you been following the events of the past four days?
This is very much the thing. When the Reid plan passes it will be a stunning strategic victory for the Rand-fanatic corporate finance sector, and it will cement their relationship with the Tea Party hoi polloi. This is the worst, most dangerous outcome possible with any deal. The Republicans should have been held firmly over the barrel of their own intransigence until their Wall Street minders had to wade in to the muck and read them the riot act. As it is, this is a complete win for the Big Money Boys, and they will remember the fanatic refusals of the Tea Party as a winning tactic. It’s fxxxing awful.
Yes, the 2010 midterms were a catastrophe.
One that I lay directly at Obama’s door.
He twisted and turned for two years trying to be the Great Compromiser. Or was it the Great Appeaser? Had he stood right up to the RatPubs from the get-go, none of this would be happening.
But he didn’t.
He posed instead.
He ain’t that good looking.
Is it too late for him now?
I think maybe.
Too bad.
He coulda been a contender. He has the intelligence.
But he doesn’t have the heart.
Instead, he’s become just another in a long list of presidential contractors, trying to compromise his way into an ongoing gig. “For the good of the country.”
Riiiiight…
Too bad.
We’re all gona get fucked by this thing. This year? Next year? Eventually. Bet on it.
Too bad.
I wonder how hard Hillary Clinton would have come out of the initial presidential box? Charles Mingus once said of Charlie Parker “If he was a gunslinger, there’d be whole lotta dead alto players.”
If she was a gunslinger, there’d be a whole lotta dead right-wing plotters.
Bet on it.
I think that she would have come out fighting.
Too late now.
Too bad.
Nice work, leftiness shmoon.
Nice work.
AG
AG-
I mostly agree with your arguments here except for the bit about Hillary. She wasn’t really a contender. Obama was FAR superior and McCain would have beat her anyway. Just because. The Republicans were totally prepared to defeat her and they would have succeeded. The way we won with Obama was by having the guy they thought was so unlikely to win that their PR folks didn’t have a plan to defeat him. They just assumed his name and skin color would do him in.
Sheer speculation on my part here, but I strongly suspect Clinton would have defeated McCain by about the same margin as Obama did.
Regardless, she’d have run up against the same institutional barriers (Senate supermajority rules) and shifting political norms (an opposition party whose primary goal is defeating the president) that Obama has.
I think you’re forgetting about Clinton fatigue, all the issues around Bill, the fact that the citizenry didn’t want a series of alternating dynasties to begin with. It’s a credit to Hillary’s outstanding service as SOS that all that has been forgotten.
No, I remember all that. It’s just that I think elections are primarily a referendum on the past, particularly the recent economic past.
Given how bad the Bush administration was, particularly the financial collapse of 2008, I think any of the major Democratic candidates would likely have defeated any of the major Republican candidates.
I mostly agree. But if it were Hillary vs McCain, most Americans would have bitten the bullet and gone for McCain, as bad as he was. Sorry to say but she was that bad of a candidate and her name was Clinton so she’s already lost half the electorate.
Now she has redeemed her name and it’s good again because she’s done so well as SOS and Bill is sort of in retirement/philanthropy mode and not anxious to win back the White House under his wife’s name.
I remember it all so well…
First of all, the female vote wold have been huge. As would have been the white middle class vote.
What? Did you miss the primaries? They were neck and neck until the corporate media…for reasons that will remain clouded for quite a while, although I personally think that they got more assurances of “business as usual” from Obama than they did from Hillary, who knows where all the bodies are buried…quite palpably shifted the general tone of their coverage towards “The New Hero.”
The storyline in the last month or so of the primary campaign?
In a nutshell?
and
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Nice.
Note well…when Obama won, where did he and his handlers put Ms. Clinton?
In a spot where her talents and connections could be used to best advantage only not within the borders of the U.S. Not in the Senate, for sure!!!
Why?
They scared of her.
Why?
Because they know that she knows the real deal about the “vast right-wing conspiracy” that she first publicly mentioned as early as 1998.
Simply saying that phrase in public was enough to bollix up any real chances that she ever had of being president. Can you imagine our present oh-so-carefully spoken president saying those same words within a mile of a microphone? Do you imagine that he is not intelligent enough to understand the truth of those words? Hell, man…there are people standing on the corner of 138th St. and Broadway in NYC selling fruit for a living who know what’s happening!
Please!!!
Wake the fuck up.
Please.
You been had.
AG
He’s not a Prime Minister; he had to deal with his own party and the party came from go to say this first term senator may be President but he doesn’t boss the Democrats in Congress. Maybe Hillary wouldn’t have had such issues with Congress; but the fact is Obama did.
He also had to deal with the backlash against the first AA president.
So he compromised on the stimulus to get a stimulus; something DEMOCRATS fought him on when they saw that NO REPUBLICANS would vote for what the country plainly needed. The right has fought to break his presidency from jump street and they would have done the same to Hillary; denying her all their votes too. Meanwhile; the Democrats refused to follow the President and blue dogs fought against him.
Everything flows from this fact: that Republicans refused to stimulate the economy and then rather than attack them for it Democrats focused on the fact that other Democrats watered down the final bill and carped over the Recovery Act rather than support and try to build upon it.
The second big mistake was going for health care in his first term; it was good policy wise to set up the base line for more reforms but it ate up the president’s capital when he could have pushed for an energy bill that would have stimulated the economy and dealt with our climate issues. It would have been the perfect vehicle for a second stimulus and the fact that this didn’t happen is one of the major mistakes I can see in hindsight.
I think health care was the best use of political capital. Far more difficult than the other issues – take it head on.
yes, but they took way too long. It should have been done by May.
I agree, in an ideal world. More realistically, if they hadn’t gone along with Baucus’ “Gang of Six” negotiations, it could have been done by September or October of 2009.
That’s assuming, of course, that every Senate Democrat would have voted for cloture. It’s not clear to me (one way or the other) that they (yes, I’m looking at you Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman) would have done that absent the prolonged proof of the Republicans’ intransigence.
The administration and the advocacy groups were also caught completely flat-footed in the summer of 2009. They had a very unambitious plan to sell HCR during the summer and that was quickly blown out of the water by the growing organization of the tea party and all the yelling about death panels. The response all across the left took the form of either a defensive crouch or mocking the tea party for incompetence or for being stooges of astroturfing. None of the responses was particularly helpful, and it made me question whether the left me wondering whether the left has a clue about how politics actually works.
In their defense. I think it does have how politics [i]should[/i] work down to a science.
đŸ˜‰
May I politely disagree about the stimulus?
He came into the negotiations asking for a trillion dollars, which got cut up into thirds to satisfy everyone and then got marked down to 880 Billion or something to make it through the “moderate dem’s” caucus.
We needed, according to his own advisers, at least 2 trillion in construction investment to make a lasting impact. So why didn’t he go in asking for 4 or 5 trillion with a hefty debt ceiling increase? He had majorities in both houses and he was riding high at the time on his “Presidential Honeymoon.”
If he had done this, he might have gotten away with the 2 or 3 trillion needed to make the lasting impact. But he hired jerks like Larry Summers who marked down the honest advice from his smart economic advisers before he even saw any of it.
RandyH, I don’t have the documentation in front of me, but my recollection is that Christina Romer’s initial recommendation was for something in the neighborhood of $1.2 trillion—with a mix of transfer payments, state government bailouts, infrastructure investment and some tax cuts. I don’t remember any discussions in the range of $2-5 trillion, even from folks like the House Progressive Caucus.
That 1.2 Trillion from Romer sounds about right, but she was not accounting for what would happen once it got to Congress, therefore the opening request must be much larger. Once it got to congress, it was divvied up 1/3 tax cuts 1/3 aid to states and 1/3 productive stuff like construction. And then it was trimmed by 20% to win votes like Blanche Lincoln and Joe Lieberman so they could feel good about themselves as “good stewards of The People’s money.”
That’s why you have to enter negotiations with SERIOUSLY inflated requests. They are going to be marked down, divvied up in inequitable ways and then marked down again before the Good Stewards can approve. Whatever your starting point, it will sound shocking at first. Just ask the Republicans and see where they are in their negotiating now. They got all they originally wanted – and then some.
You can only make your opening bid so high, though.
If you tell the car dealer you’ll pay $1200 for the new Accord, you aren’t going to get a good deal by being a savvy negotiator. You’re going to get laughed at, thrown out of the dealership, and he’ll go talk to the next customer.
And this is the important part: the level at which an opening bid is unreasonable doesn’t depend on your feelings, and it doesn’t depend on what is objectively the right price for the car. It depends on what the car dealer thinks.
IT doesn’t work like that. If the other party wanted NOTHING, starting at double of what you wanted doesn’t make any difference. The GOP wanted NOTHING. NO stimulus. period.
The public just saw Congress give away almost a trillion dollars to Wall Street then Obama comes in and wants the same Congress to sign off a couple more trillions? The few Republicans that helped shape and or pass the stimulus were most likely focused on getting it under a trillion NOT just cutting Obama’s request in half.
Robert Reich seems to be uninformed on how the Congress and the Executive work.
The repubs made this crisis, dug their heels in and haven’t let go of it.
The president can’t make do anything and Reich should know that.
Obama has been on tv during the past week and talked about this.
THis is Bill Clinton would have done better because I (Reich) was in his admin.
You’re making an argument as though the president is a helpless bystander to this whole debate. A president has real power in America. No deal made by Congress can get past his desk unless he signs it. No bill passed by the House can get past the Senate without Democratic support. Republicans have one House of Congress, not a supermajority that can force Obama’s hand.
The president sets the agenda for the Democratic party. We’re talking about Grand Bargains because he is talking about Grand Bargains. We’re talking about cuts to Social Security because he has made the offer to the Republicans. We’re not talking about 14th amendment style remedies, because he has publicly taken the possibility off the table. We’re not fighting for job growth because he, Reid and now Pelosi have decided that they’re going all in on the Republican ‘austerity’ agenda.
If it had become obvious after the 2010 midterms that the debt limit and deficit reduction would be linked, shouldn’t that have been part of the whole Bush tax cut extension deal? Remember that? Obama gave up a huge source of leverage against the Republican party, one which would have occurred automatically if he had simply done nothing at all. Instead he made the deal that gave them all they asked for.
Stop telling us how helpless the Democrats are. We’re in this situation because they refuse to fight for progressive ideas.
Define helpless.
Because the president is powerless to use Congress to stimulate the economy. He can’t do that. It’s impossible.
The fact that you believe that is an excellent illustration of why Democrats keep losing these battles.
Republicans want things. It’s impossible for them to get those things without Democratic votes. Democrats don’t have to make the Republican agenda their own.
No. The Republicans don’t really want things. Even the free trade agreements are gathering dust.
If you believe that the president could have avoided huge budget cuts and actually, conversely, significantly increased our debt and deficit to stimulate the economy, then you know nothing at all about politics.
Booman, if I could offer a friendly amendment here…I’m sure there are things congressional Republicans want. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has stated repeatedly that his number one priority is doing everything he can to ensure Barack Obama is a one term president.
From his actions over the last few days, it appears that what Speaker Boehner wants more than anything is to keep his party caucus unified behind him as its leader. Given how many House Republicans are prone to oppose almost anything Obama supports—if only because Obama supports it—then it’s hard to see what Obama can “give” Boehner and most House Republicans in order to “get” something in return.
Yes, what the Republicans want is for Obama to be a one-term president.
Everyone in politics wants something. The Republicans want many things. Not least of which is that they want to keep their jobs after the next election. And they don’t want to run against Democratic claims that Republicans are trying to kill Medicare and Social Security.
Of course, if the president offers to cut Medicare and Social Security for them, they can run against him on that basis in 2012. I know you think that this was some brilliant strategy, proving he was willing to compromise, but voters don’t give a damn about that. They don’t want their benefits cut and they’ll put out anyone who threatens to do so.
Jinchi, I agree Republicans don’t want to run against Democratic claims they’re trying to kill Medicare and Social Security.
Somewhat to my surprise, by walking away from various versions of a “grand bargain”, Republicans have demonstrated that they care more about not raising taxes—even on the wealthy—than they care about Medicare, Social Security or, apparently, any other issue.
At least that’s how I see the events of the past few weeks. Do you see it differently?
That’s how I see it too. Obama wants to flush out the Republicans’ real agenda; make it so obvious the media can’t cover for them.
Of course, if the president offers to cut Medicare and Social Security for them, they can run against him on that basis in 2012.
False. He would actually have to do it for them to use it against him. Disputed details about who said what in back-room negotiations are not going to overcome what people know about the Democrats and Republicans when it comes to Medicare and Social Security.
I know you think that this was some brilliant strategy, proving he was willing to compromise, but voters don’t give a damn about that
The polls say exactly the opposite: the public is strongly blaming the Republicans for this mess.
The president can order the Treasury to print money at any time he finds convenient. It is completely legal, crystal clear legal. They have to be platinum coins, though. No bills.
Almost all your argument collapses with this little piece of information.
A pleasure
I think some myths are operating in your mind. The whole point of the debt ceiling is that the government CAN’T print money.
Perhaps they could mint a coin or two, but we don’t want to become a nation of cartoon figures.
That is plainly not true.
The US government can issue any coin he may want to print and give it the value it may want to give. I tis called “having your own coin” and “print money”.. actually it is just printing money by other means. In a liquidity trap there is almost no difference related to standard open-market operations.
It is normal that under so much nonsense in the media this key fact is not known.
A pleasure
I’ve seen this argument about subsection k of § 5112. Denominations, specifications, and design of coins in Title 31.
Sounds like he could indeed issue trillion dollar coins. I think the largest denomination coin authorized for other metals is 50 bucks. So, that’s a bit of a leap there.
Obama can issue two-hundred 10 billion coins. or two-thousand billion coins.. It is up to them.
I would print a couple of trillion coins.
Do you have nay doubt that Reagan would have used this?
A pleasure
There is an idea! Stamp Reagans picture on them too. We are here thanks to his original taxcut, supplyside, trickledown propaganda.
I would do it.. Obama won’t.. it is ok with me, as long as he prints money.
A pleasure
Depending on what ends up happening with the negotiations, Obama may end up following a path like this. But he’s only going to do it if it appears absolutely necessary to prevent economic calamity because that’s the only way he can win the move politically (and decrease the probability of SCOTUS interfering).
I agree. I think he should have done it sooner.. this is why I am afraid he will not veto the bill coming out from congress. And if there is any short-term spending (except for ending the wars) cuts he should veto.
In the long-run it is about movilization and changing the game if the US want to preserve a welfare state.. but in the short-run it is purely economic policy and political games. Obama does not need mass demonstrations to veto the bill and print money once it is seen as the last option. It is his future as a “dad leader” as a “center-left” figure and the only way the economy is not in a huge recession by 2012. If he does not veto, he is a failure.. and I do not understand how booman does not see this.
A pleasure
Why would you enact a last ditch effort or play your last card BEFORE you know, the actual last minute? Kind of blows up his would be argument that, “I had no other choice”
It is hurting his election prospect. he appears week. he should not do it as ” a last effort”, he should do it because he is dealing with crazy nutty people.
He should treat the tea party and the Rep like Reagan treated the unions, with complete disdain once they do not accept fair offers. That’s why I advocated him “threatening” instead of him “being pushed to”.
A pleasure
The Treasury has as statutory limit on the amount of currency it can print, but not on metallic coinage.
All creation of money as electronic accounting entries is done by the federal reserve through the reserve functions it offers the banking industry.
The platinum coin idea is still on the table. As is unilateral defining of a new debt ceiling. Or trying to work for two months within the current debt ceiling, by selective deferral of payments. Or declaring that the fundamental instructions of fiscal matters to the President are the Congressional appropriations acts and the revenues that are coming in based on Congressionally passed tax laws, the remainder having to be financed by debt, period. (i.e. Congress should stop playing games and do its job)
The platinum coin idea is to strike two platinum bars with the denomination $1T, transfer them in the accounts to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $2T of government debt, which will be retired. Because it is an asset-for-asset (think coins for accounts receivable) swap between the Treasury and its agent for selling debt, the Federal Reserve, it does not affect the money supply. And thus cannot create inflation. In addition, the metallic platinum is a hedge against hyperinflation. The Economist opines that it is “harebrained” but it “might work”.
Argument does not collapse with this piece of information because all it does is lower the debt to $12.4T. It is unorthodox enough to cause questions about its legitimacy not only in Washington but with other central bankers and with the ratings agencies like Moody’s and Standard & Poors.
It may generate enough inflation expectations depending on what the FED does.. of course the FED can eliminate this expectations in the short-run… but I hope that it is a little more difficult to offset them in the long-run.. ans this is what matters.
In any case, it is true, the FED can destroy the inflation expectation in the short-run…good to remember.
A pleasure
I agree with the Economist that it is harebrained inasmuch as it seems too good to be true and I don’t get the full ramifications of doing it, why it hasn’t been tried before, etc. I also agree that it might work. But it might also be open to SCOTUS challenge of effectively printing money without Congressional authorization and that the failure to specify a limit to the denomination for platinum was an oversight since all other metals have clear limits. But that’s why the crisis needs to be actually happening and something like this needs to be offered as a remedy to that crisis: it would effectively neutralize SCOTUS. It’s also why this card can’t really be talked about by Obama or Geithner until just before they play the card.
The law is pretty clear, no SCOTUS.. the Treasury has the complete right to issue coins.
A pleasure
If the administration goes with platinum bullion option, I can almost guarantee that it will be challenged and, if challenged, SCOTUS will rule on it. It’s way out of line in terms of precedent, and there is no obvious reason why no limit was placed on the platinum coin. In any case, I’ve presumed a SCOTUS challenge is why the White House has been extremely careful about what they say in terms of their options, and it would really not be smart politically to gain get a short term political gain now only to have SCOTUS come through and declare it unconstitutional next week. If Obama is responding to a legitimate crisis, even this Court is likely to give him more room to maneuver.
How can be something set in court just because there is no precedent when it is clearly in the law?
This is like saying that because noone has ever kill a hundred journalists (and killing a hundred journalist is out of line with precedent), it would not be a crime until SCOTUS rules a bout it The same with coins. It is clearly legal, they can do it, if SCOTUS can just make law in on the fly and rule on something because it never happened before… then the US is beyond repair.
A pleasure
No, Jinchi, rebutting the “magical bully pulpit” theory does not leave “helpless bystander” as the only alternative.
That is a completely bogus straw man.
Extremists can only think in extreme terms.
THIS:
This. This. This. This. THIS!
I agree with much of what Booman is saying here but THIS (above) is where Obama completely lost me. He abandoned his very core economic principles that we all understood he subscribed to. THAT is the day that he proved he is the craven politician that will do ANYTHING to get re-elected. And that is when many of us (and, I believe, many of the very independents he was trying to attract with this retarded move) lost faith in his vision for the country.
It’s gonna be real hard to earn that back. He’s probably hoping to just run against Bachmann so it won’t matter because she’s such a whack-job that he’ll win in a landslide regardless.
But I’m not happy with our so-called leadership right now. Nancy Pelosi for President!
Nancy Pelosi declared we’re in an era of austerity.
Europe has already gone for austerity and is suffering and we’re about to start our slide. Hell, FDR went through this too. When folks see that much money spent; it’s easy for conservatives to demagogue. Unless Democrats when the 2012 election; there will not be any more stimulus.
I know she said that. That’s all anyone can say and be taken seriously anymore, it seems. Otherwise, she’d be seen as “shrill” and not taken seriously anymore in The Village.
Now that the President of the United States has decided to jump ship on reality and abandon his core economic values in order to follow David Cameron and several other idiot conservative European people who call themselves economists down the Japanese “Lost Decade” path, we are all screwed.
The President needs to be very careful about what he says on matters like this. Like Alan Greenspan, when he speaks on economic matters, people definitely listen. And Alan Greenspan was wrong! Seriously wrong.
Since he signaled that Magical Thinking beats out proven Keynesian economic principles, anyone who says otherwise must be Not Serious and should not be listened to.
So we are royally fucked now, kids. He has conceded that the smart people don’t know what they’re talking about to satisfy the know-nothings. Why do you think his entire economic advisory staff has quit? He needs to hire some soothsayers or something because that’s probably better advice than he’s getting now in the area of economics.
You know what utterly and completely fails to move the “Overton Window?”
Getting your ass kicked.
This is the part that the Progressive Peanut Gallery never understands, for all of their facile invocation of the term: it isn’t inevitable that making the case for a position outside the mainstream will move things in your direction, or even keep them from moving away from you. If you try, and fail, to hold indefensible ground, and you get pushed off of it, you’ve done more damage to your argument’s credibility than if you lived to fight another day.
Here is what Obama said and what the American people hear:
“we must tighten our belts and live within our means BUT we must also INVEST (spend) for the long term.”
They don’t hear him and think,’oh he sounds like a Republican or he’s using a right wing frame or that he’s given up on Keynesian blah blah’. They think, ‘Hey this guy gets it. He gets how I think’.
This is why liberals lose. You don’t appeal to how people already think and use it to your benefit. You’re always trying to teach old dogs new tricks.
I think you’re overreacting. I mean, I agree it was gratuitous and stupid, but compared with “The Era of Big Government is Over’ it was a fairly minor sin.
It’s just an example of him letting his focus groupers have too much influence. A shame, but not shameful.
I hope that they can get the American Public to forget he ever said it and change their rhetoric quickly. Maybe no one will notice. But if they adopt this as the new reality, we truly are screwed and I am not over-reacting.
The government’s budget is exactly the opposite of the average family’s “kitchen table” budget or even that of the average corporation’s budget. In their cases, if demand is down, they pull back on the spending. When this happens, the government must massively increase spending (hopefully on smart things) to fill the GDP gap. Then, of course, when consumers and businesses start spending again, the government should cut back and pay off the debts. It’s simple but we’re all programmed to think that government should act like consumers or business. That’s utter nonsense but it’s easy to fall victim to The Stupid.
You say “He abandoned his very core economic principles”. Why do you believe that he has “core economic principles”? I don’t think that Obama has any core principles, not one. He has shown NO interest in any principle.
He just wants a deal, and if he has to sell his momma down the river to get it, so be it. He would sell his daughters to get the budget through.
I hope you’re joking. That’s pretty harsh.
Odd, then, that he’s spiked every potential deal to date by insisting on tax cuts.
Odd, then, that when it looked like Boehner might agree to a deal, he suddenly insisted on more tax cuts, and the deal was spiked.
You mean Obama doesn’t choose his ideology over the needs of the American people. Something I’ve seen liberals do since the health care bill. You all would have tanked a bill that helps tens of millions of people just so you can have the public option. You would have tanked the tax deal which provided tax cuts, credits and additional benefits to millions of the middle class and the poor just so you can stick it to the rich. Don’t cry deficit to me when you’ve all been telling Obama that deficit reduction is not important right now. And you were all willing to let the government shut down during the budget deal which turned out to be smoke and mirrors and you ideologues are also demanding that Obama let the economy default instead of negotiating with Republicans.
Obama’s principle is TO PUT PEOPLE AND COUNTRY FIRST.
Who ever said that Obama, a friend of economists at the University of Chicago, understood the economic insights of John Maynard Keynes?
The University of Chicago is the most Straussian department in the US.
And that’s why the U of C econ department granted Obama tenure…
Oh, wait.
This is a tendentious argument and we both know it.
I’ve got $880 billion reasons to think Obama understands and supports Keynesian economics. He put a large part of his agenda on hold, during his honeymoon, to push through the largest stimulus bill in American history. He ended up not even starting on his #1 priority, health care reform, because he moved Keynesian stimulus to the front of the line.
What does his schooling or where he worked has to do with it? Obama has an open mind and clearly likes to hear and educate himself on all sides of an issue. You seem to suggest that he was held prisoner and not allowed to read any material outside of what was available at the school.
your comment makes no sense.
Whoever said that Barack Obama, friends will Bill Ayers and congregant at Reverend Wright’s church, blah blah blah.
Guilt by association.
Sorry Booman…
but this is a false debate. The US government does no need to default nor stop spending if he wants to. The federal government is not constrained by debt. It can issue fat money, as mcuh as it wishes. Obama can, at any time of his wish, issue coins and proint money. In a liquidity trap , short of conventional fiscal policy, printing money is the best solution for the economy
In a liquidity trap printing money is not inflationary.. even better it does create inflation expectations, and once you have most of the balance-sheets of big corporations full with cash, it is precisely what you need to start the economic engine again.
Given the situation in the markets, one or two weeks ago, given the lack of resolution in congress, Obama should have given the order to the Treasury to issue 100 billion platinum coins.. I hope he is waiting for the deadline to take this measure as a last option.
In any case, accepting any kind of spending cut in the end game when you just can print money shows the lack of resolve of Obama.
If Obama does not print money once this is over he will be worst than Bush Jr.. I am not joking, and your defense here would not sound very nice.
I read the other day that the problem is that Obama did not had to deal with unions nor the communist.. he is no Reagan.. Reagan would have used the bully pulpit and print money a couple of weeks ago. He would have put the deadline on mid July.. and warn that he would be printing money by now. this weekend would have happened by early july, and after failure or no Grand Bargain he would have issued the money.
He did not
He is a partial failure
If on August 10th he does not veto any bill coming from the House and Senate with short term spending cuts and prints money, he is a complete failure, worse, a monster.
A pleasure
I can not envision how you can fathom this as possible.
Absolutely possible.
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/07/the-presidents-obligation-to-take-care-that-the-laws-be-faithf
ully-executed-requires-him-to-start-minting-large-denomination.html
A pleasure
The President cannot extend the debt as much as he wants without political pushback. His safest course is either to unilaterally extend it or claim that the debt ceiling is a phony gimmick. In either of those cases, he is legally bound not to spend more than Congress has appropriated without going back to Congress for a supplemental appropriation.
And incidentally, this only good for August and September. Congress has to approve before October 1 at least a continuing resolution to extend the current spending levels. Otherwise, there is a government shutdown like the one in 1995.
Minting a coin or coins (DeLong goes in for the dramatic; it can be stored at the mint with the Federal Reserves name on it.) is one option but not the only one.
But it is true that the other options challenge either the debt ceiling law or the requirements to pay certain classes of obligations. But the whole point of ignoring the debt ceiling law would be to challenge its Constitutionality. Which would likely not be decided for a while, unless the Supreme Court decided to be particularly punitive.
“The President cannot extend the debt as much as he wants without political pushback.”
Which is precisely why he needed to win a political fight against the Republicans over who was to blame for no debt-ceiling bill from Congress before he would be able to take unilateral action. If the Republicans win that fight, and the President spends four months “moving the Overton Window” on Keynesianism while the Republicans succeed in blaming the Democrats, he won’t be in a position to act unilaterally because it would destroy him in the next election. Heck, he probably wouldn’t ever get the opportunity to, because the Congressional Dems would cave to the Republicans’ demands and pass their bills in order to stop being blamed for an impending default.
kcurie, of course Obama is a “partial failure”. So are we all. (Otherwise he’d be “Barack the Magic Negro” who solved all our problems.)
As for Reagan, are you referring to the Ronald Reagan who, in the first year of his presidency, was outmaneuvered by Tip O’Neill (widely mocked as an out-of-touch hack who symbolized all of the Democratic party’s weaknesses and failings)? And then raised taxes 6 of the next 7 years? And lost control of the US Senate?
I disagree with some of the things Obama has said and done, including in some of his negotiations. However, he’s “negotiated” himself from an obscure state senator to president of the United States in less than a decade, and then signed into law the most comprehensive set of progressive legislation since 1965. That ain’t everything; but it’s alright.
The real problem is that he does not understand where he is. Obama has the equivalent of “I am going to bust you all dirty unions” written in the seignorage right to issue 1 trillion coins… and he is not using it.. yet.
And it is completely legal. Actually, it is probably the only legal option
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/07/the-presidents-obligation-to-take-care-that-the-laws-be-faithf
ully-executed-requires-him-to-start-minting-large-denomination.html
The fact he is not printing money now is absolutely crazy!!
A pleasure
I’m hoping we don’t have to find out what Obama would do if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling limit, but apparently Obama has several options at that point:
1 – as you point out, Treasury apparently has the legal right to print new coinage in any denomination. Those new assets could then be used to pay the nation’s bills.
2 – Pres. Obama could assert his authority under article 4 of the 14th amendment and order Treasury to take whatever measures necessary to protect the “full faith and credit” of the US government.
3 – Pres. Obama could, without invoking the 14th amendment, declare that Congress has failed to resolve a conflict between two laws (the debt ceiling and the budget), and that he will act in the best interests of the country (and follow the law passed more recently, i.e., the budget), and raise the debt ceiling unilaterally.
4 – Apparently there is a “reserve power” of the presidency to act in the national interest in times of crisis. Obama could use this power to order Treasury to take any steps necessary to pay the nation’s debts and other financial obligations.
Those are the ones I’ve seen floated in the past few days. Given the apparent lack of widespread mobilization in the executive branch (e.g., no notices to employees about potential layoffs as there were during the last budget showdown), I suspect Obama and his key advisers have settled on one (or more) of these options as “Plan B” in the event Congress fails to act.
This is exactly my view. Only that I would take the first one , because it is what would benefit the US economy given the inflation expectations that the FED can modulate.
My point is that he did not use this stuff before. Why not a threat on july? Why not showing that he has the upper-hand after mid-july? why not threatening to blow them away if there is not a balance approach? Republican wold never accept 1 dollar in taxes for 1 cut in spending. he would have look like a president doing his best. And if they do not take it.. they know what to get.
In other words, why not warn them three weeks ago that without a clean debt ceiling he would print the money to pay for everything…The only explanation is that he wants everything to fail and then have the media-right to print money as the ultimate solution. Or that he took the wrong option.
and then let them shut down the government..
I really do not get how booman can be so wrong about this… the proper course of action is not raising the debt ceiling unilaterally, or debate about the debt ceiling after July, the proper option is to use this as a way to improve the economic outlook in 2012… why is he not taking the proper measure to do it? Only if he threatens to veto the outcome and prints money I can say that he was a smart president.. otherwise.. he is no presidential material. If he caves and accepts any short-term spending cuts he is really a bad bad bad president.
A pleasure
Thanks for your reply. As for why Obama “did not use this stuff before”, I suspect it’s because this is the kind of fighter he is. He’s a counterpuncher.
He lets his opponent take the initiative, determine the tempo of the fight, and land a lot of punches.
Meanwhile, Obama parries knockout punches, keeps moving, keeps probing his opponent’s strengths and weaknesses.
When his opponent gets tired, overextended or off-balance, that’s when Obama counterattacks.
For those of us “in his corner” or rooting for him, it’s often nerve-wracking, terrifying and aggravating. Even worse if we’ve got money riding on this fight (as we all do).
Here’s the thing I try to remember: overall, this style works for him. It got him to the White House. It got him to presiding over the biggest wave of progressive legislation in 35 years. And it’s gotten him to the point where most of the country (according to recent polls) is on his side about raising the debt ceiling—an impressive accomplishment since raising the debt ceiling always polls terribly.
Absolutely right. I started using the counter-punching metaphor during the 2008 primary campaign.
Remember “Just Words?”
You left out Reagan’s invasion of Nicaragua. And we’ve got ground troops there to this day.
Oh, wait, we don’t…..
Only a Great Communicator could have bully-pulpited that past an unwilling Congress.
Printing (or coining) money does no good unless it is spent. Congress still has to authorize the spending of the money. It does get us past the debt ceiling issue, however, and it offers a way of eliminating the debt. I can’t say that I understand the ramifications of coining away the debt, only that it was clear that Treasury could make it disappear. There have to be downside risks, but things are more confusing in a liquidity trap.
remember… fiscal policy, standard fiscal policy is the best option. No doubt. But a second best is inflation expectations once the balance-sheet are recovered. And now, most balance-sheet in corporations are healthy.
Printing money in a liquidity trap is a second best option.. and you do not need to spend… you only need to “force” the people sitting in cash to invest because otherwise inflation would eat their savings… It is not as good as fiscal policy but it is a good second best.
A pleasure
The debt ceiling issue is this. Congress has appropriated and expects to be spent more funds than the incoming revenue will handle without breaching the debt ceiling.
Congress has essentially given two contradictory instructions:
You must spend what we appropriate on what we appropriate it for (Nixon fell afoul of this in trying to kill the War on Poverty)
You must not borrow more than X amount.
So which instruction is the President supposed to obey? Aside from legal obligations to pay off T-bills at maturity and distributed entitlement benefits.
Thanks again Booman. You pull together to cogent facts that speak for me.
I observe this President leading daily. I also observe those who disagree, be it from the right or from the left, throwing temper tantrums when “my way” does not get what “I want.” Enough already!
And WHY were the 2010 elections a disaster? There are several answers, none of which you will agree with, Boo.
Obama has no interest or respect for his base. He didn’t work to create a set of programs that they would get out and vote for. And guess what? They didn’t get out and vote.
You can blame the voters, which you do all the time. Obama needs to look in the mirror and say “Big guy, what have you done for your base lately?” Because the answer is “Nothing except kick them in the teeth”
dataguy, thanks for listing your answers to the question of why the 2010 midterms were so bad for Democrats. I’d dispute your list, and offer my own list of the factors that accounted for most of that catastrophe:
1 – The president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in off-year elections.
2 – Democrats had a lot of vulnerable incumbents as a consequence of large majorities created by the 2006 and 2008 “wave” elections.
3 – The economy. High unemployment and bad median income growth numbers are bad for incumbents, particularly incumbents from the majority party.
4 – Health care. There’s pretty good polling data that the Republicans’ ability to use the ACA against Democrats (it was polarizing! they cut your Medicare!) accounted for perhaps as much as 1/4 of Republican gains.
Off-year electorates are always smaller, older, whiter, wealthier and more conservative than presidential-year electorates. It doesn’t make me happy to acknowledge that, but I don’t blame Obama for it.
Don’t include people of color in your bull shit ass argument. People of color voted! Unlike most of your privileged white asses, people of color have to compromise every minute of every day of our lives. The history of our existence in this racist ass country has been a mutha fuckin compromise! Our loyalty to the Democratic Party is a compromise. If we based our votes on enthusiasm and fulfillment of promises, shiiiiiit, Democrat’s’ national presence would be non-existent. Not voting out of protest is privilege WE don’t have.
In 2010 Dems did not show up in the numbers that they should have. They were generally not excited about what their Dem leaders were doing and they were burned out over the healthcare debate. At the same time, the know-nothings and the Republicans were stirred up over the healthcare debate and determined to throw out all Dems. And previously unknown no-nothings got elected all over the place.
I was shocked because here, in Nevada, we Dem volunteers were working really hard to get the Dems out to the polls to defeat Sharron Angle and retain Harry Reid’s Leadership of the Senate (even though none of us really loved his past performance.)
We had little trouble getting people of color out to vote. They hated Sharon Angle after her racist antics. But the white Dem voters were much harder to get off of the La-Z-Boy. Many of them didn’t want anything to do with the Democrats (or politics) after the (no public option) health care compromise even though they hated the Republicans.
Thanks to the large Latino community here (plus other minority groups) and Sharron Angle’s racist comments about them just prior to the election, we were successful at defeating her by a decent margin.
I didn’t look into exit polling around the country at the time, but I would bet that it was the educated-white-Dem-voter and young-white-Dem-voter that lost all those seats in 2010. It sure wasn’t people of color.
In the 2010 election, Democrats showed up at almost exactly the rate they historically have.
It’s the economy, stupid.
Only someone whose entire theory of politics revolves around political blogs could possibly think that all of the messaging you’re obsessed with is even 1% as important as a 9% unemployment rate.
It’s astounding to me how critical liberals are of teabagger unrealism when you are one in the same. This is a great illustration from Ezra Klein of what it means to govern,
“Lately, Boehner has not been governing. What should have happened Friday is obvious: Having failed to pass a conservative resolution to the debt crisis without Democratic votes, he should have begun cutting the deals and making the concessions necessary to gain Democratic votes. That, after all, is what he will ultimately have to do anyway, as whatever he passes will also require the approval of the Senate and the president.
But Boehner went in the opposite direction. He made his bill less conservative. He indulged his members in the fantasy that they wouldn’t have to make compromises. It’s as if Pelosi, facing criticism for dropping the public option, had tried to shore up her support by bringing a single-payer health-care bill to the floor. Even if that would have pleased her left wing, what good would it have done her? Her job was to prepare her members to take a vote that could lead to a successful outcome. Pretending that that outcome could be far further to the left than it actually could be would ultimately make her job harder.”
For the life of me I can not understand how in one breath liberals can say that it is John Boehner’s responsibility to bring legislation to the floor THAT CAN PASS, but simultaneously argue that President Obama should be pushing legislation that can not pass because it’s better to go down fighting. That’s the same illogical argument teabaggers are making now. THAT’S NOT GOVERNING! And don’t give me that argument about public opinion. Up until two weeks ago when the President exposed the extreme craziness of these people and Boehner’s inability to put them in a straight jacket, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY WAS SOLIDLY AGAINST RAISING THE DEBT CEILING, INCLUDING DEMOCRATS. Teabbagers had public opinion on their side, but some equally crazy liberals want to argue that the President should have attached the debt ceiling to Bush tax cuts. That’s insane! The President and Democrats would be in the same position as Boehner and Republicans are now. Republicans and the media would have ate their assess up! The fact that liberals can’t see that shows just how far removed from reality as teabaggers are.
EXACTLY!!!
The key problem with liberal/progressive thinking here IMHO is that change should come without struggle, conflict, and mobilization of ordinary citizens. There are a lot of sigs with that message that liberals/progrssives have, but they do not or do not consistently believe them.
What does “using the bully pulpit” mean besides speaking? Does it mean rallying one side against another? Does it mean educating? Obama has been educating so much that he has the nickname professor-in-chief. Does it mean making emotional arguments? Does it mean successfully or unsuccessfully trying to impose a different frame of reference on an issue?
What is the judgment when a President uses the bully pulpit and the media (or blogs) immediately set about to deconstruct it and impose their own narratives on it?
Likewise, what does “leadership” mean? Representing people in what they want to see happen or supporting them while they endure what they don’t want to see happen?
FDR had the strategic position from being able to speak from within the elite as a conversation within the elite. FDR could welcome their contempt because he knew them personally and they knew that he knew what they actually were. Obama is an rose-by-his-bootstraps outsider, who is not yet considered a part of the elite by the elite. He signals the elites in public and speaks to them in private. He cannot welcome their contempt because they have held him in contempt since he announced his campaign for President and have done every thing to sabotage every initiative that he has undertaken.
Obama has benefited by the fact that the US has the most self-destructive elite in the world, not that Obama’s talents are not there or wouldn’t have been recognized in normal times. At a critical moment in the 2008 campaign, the elites destroyed the economy and threatened global economic collapse that result of their own greedy stupidity. Now at a critical moment, the agents that the elites created to win the 2010 election are now believing the elite propaganda and trying to put it into action in a way that is contrary to the operation of democratic governance. “The hell with the people, full steam ahead.”
So the real metric for judging Obama’s leadership ability is how he has responded to the stream of obstacles put in his way and how he has seized the opportunities presented by the elite’s stupidity.
So far here is what he has done. He has made the operation of the Congress and the limits that a President faces so transparent that people are angry at all of Congress and at him for the way that the health care bill was passed and the fact that it was and is semi-weak tea. Chalk one up for Professor-in-chief.
He has opened up the sausage-making process in getting legislation done to show the sly maneuvers and the way that Congress strives not to put its fingerprints on governance.
He has exposed he way lobbyists affect legislation after it is passed by gaming the public rule-making process. A procedure meant to get public input winds up being a mechanism by which lobbyists can rewrite legislation in its effects.
And now, he has finally succeeded in making the Republican’s dishonest game clear. They wanted him to do their dirty work by making cuts his base hated. His response was to bend. For two years he has driven liberal/progressives nuts with what he has put on the table in the Catfood Commission and in the debt ceiling talks. How much of that has been enacted? So little that Republicans have to lie to make their case of betrayal.
How much has he given up in this debt ceiling fight. As of yet, not one thing. The legislation has not been written. And it is a 50-50 chance that he will have to deal with a stalemate and “invoke” the 14th amendment. Jim Clyburn and Steny Hoyer have set the table with the most extreme option he could pursue. They would support his unilaterally raising the debt ceiling in the face of Congressional stalemate. He could also try to live within the debt ceiling as I have describe in excruciating detail in previous comments. Or he could say that the debt ceiling is meaningless, and that what Congresses appropriates must be financed if the revenues coming in are not adequate.
Mitch McConnell might grant him the right to set the debt ceiling, with Congress able to override it. But the GOP in the House will not, in my estimation.
Something will change in American political debate after this crisis. It is too soon to say how. But this is a defining moment before the discussion of the FY2012 budget. And one that might get more people paying attention to the discussion.
Before you can successfully use the bully pulpit, people have to be listening. They stopped listening the day he was inaugurated, thinking now everything would be OK. The woke up grouchy after the passage of the healthcare bill and stagnation in jobs in 2010.
Have they had their coffee yet? We soon will know.
For the reflexive 11-dimension chess folks, I suspect that this was not the result of a grand strategy but the way that a person with Obama’s personality and intellect and community organizing experience muddles through. To a great extent, community organizing is on establishing democratic processes that let people speak for themselves. That instinct in his experience came through with the gambit of asking people to call their members of Congress and express their opinion. And the 2012 campaign was primed to put Twitter pressure on the Republicans in Congress by asking people to tweet their opinions.
Notice that he was willing to take the risk that people wanted the debt ceiling not to be raised or that astro=turfers would game the calling and tweeting. He was establishing a process and educating the public in that process.
So now, get your popcorn and watch for the next week the unraveling of the global economy — or not.
Tarheel Dem, thanks for this. Combined with Booman’s original post, it’s like a couple of deep breaths of fresh air when the air clears after an oppressive heat wave.
I’m not celebrating political genius here. Just competence and mostly persistence. If I faced what he faced, I would be sorely tempted to throw up my hands and let Joe Biden deal with it. That would be the Cheney/Bush style of handling it.
What most of you are ignoring was the decision by Reid and Pelosi to take almost any “controversial” vote off of the table before the mid-terms.
This was Reid’s fault, they chose not to raise the debt ceiling when they had the votes in the Senate and the House in the late-Fall of 2010.
Have any of you read the reporting about their choices during that time? They are all over the left bloggosphere. Hell, Digby’s been writing about this in real time since last year. She’s got a post up tonight laying out the failed strategy of the Democratic leadership.
We’re in this mess because the President wanted to leverage a debt crisis to push through spending cuts in appeal to independent voters.
You can sit over here and enjoy your denial, while the GOP is filled with intransigent fools, the Democrats are just as much to blame for this.
What does “using the bully pulpit” mean besides speaking?
How often has the President done what he did Thursday night(or was it Wednesday night)? Do you remember what he did?
You may be right on the policy but it seems to me that the White House moved towards austerity framing well before the 2010 election. I think Obama has done ok in explaining why the republicans need to give up something on revenues, but he’s done very poorly in explaining why austerity is totally bonkers right now. Based on the evidence, that’s because he genuinely believes in some version of austerity.
The evidence being, that he put most of his agenda on hold when he came into office in order to pass the largest stimulus bill in American history?
There is something creepy and worse, undemocratic, about so much emphasis on the President’s role here. I know he has a role and I also wish he had said different things at different times. At one point he said something to the effect that he wanted to get through this diversion so that the focus could be shifted to building the economy. But I don’t think speculating about his motives is a productive exercise and there are other players in this mess that performed worse than he did. I don’t think House Democrats or Senators stepped up as aggressively as they could have in changing the narrative.
I admire Reich generally but he errs by leaving the corporate media out of the list of causes for this. And in particular the beltway media. Even when Dems show up Sunday morning talking about jobs, moderators just ignore them most of the time. How can there be ANY national dialog when the discussion is rigged?
I think there is something to hold to Booman in your remark about putting the onus on the people. My take on that is that we as progressive bloggers don’t need to adopt the corporate media priorities. Yet despite all the talk about the bias and corruption of the corporate media, the progressive blogsphere seems to take the narrative of the day from them.
Take a look at the Daily Kos front page lately. It is 75% on the debt ceiling and 25% on other issues. If that political blog wants to be effective it should be 50% on the many various jobs and wealth issues, 25% on the debt ceiling, etc. Why are they adopting the priorities of the corporate media?
There are a few exceptions in the national dialog like Vanden Heuvel’s NPR appearance yesterday:
That is what the progressive press and blogoshere should be doing.
Overemphasis on the power of the President has been a part of the political culture since George Washington. It is a translation from the authoritarian relationships of everyday life. It you want something done, go directly to the boss. It is failing to understand that leader’s power comes from those who obey them, willingly or unwillingly. As result of authority, legitimacy, or raw power.
The problem with the Village is not the Village media; they are a symptom of the problem. The underlying problem is the fact that Washington’s primary industry is not the government, but lobbying and contracting. The public relations-industry organization-attorney-media contact complex that is the core of its work life and its social life.
Of course it is out of touch. Its primary mission is to frustrate the popular will of the constituents who elected the Congress through special pleading, buying access, bribery, public relations, and astro-turfing.
These folks dictate the agenda through thousands of radio and TV talk shows, mailings, emails, and the mainstreaming of their PR through gossip publications like The Hill, Politico, and some writers of the Washington Post–which then drives the establishment media’s narrative in Washington, New York, and elsewhere. They are paid to be out-of-touch.
And what we are witnessing right now is the end of a GOP power play, dragging the media in tow, to become a permanent majority in American politics. So that the political system becomes the total handmaiden of the economic elites. (A system of governance that was given the name of fascism in the last century). Add the domination of some particularly powerful and hierarchical cultural elites and you have the perfect “permanent majority”–a totalitarian state.
I say “end of a GOP power play” because I think that their hubris has finally brought them down. The circus audience is not going to be quite as happy with the Wurlitzer and the clowns and the elephants moving in unison as they have for a decade and a half.
But the thrill of the circus is not ended. People think that all of those clowns came in that one car. And that lowering taxes and cutting spending creates jobs. They have been snookered by the circus and are just realizing that their pockets have been picked. But not how.
And this FDR analogy is some stupid shit! Of course FDR could effectively use the bully pulpit. It was the fuckin’ radio era! NO TV with a 1,000 channels with hundreds of no nothing corporate owned talking heads running their stupid ass mouths 24 hours a day! FDR didn’t have any competition for the public’s attention! There was only radio and one station! Anyone could have used the bully pulpit effectively under those circumstances! That’s the ultimate strawman argument that FDR could have been as effective in the modern age.
And as to his Trojan like courage that white liberals love to tout, I want just one white liberal to have the COURAGE to acknowledge and explain FDR’s capitulation to Dixicrats! I want you to once acknowledge that FDR made a private campaign promise to Black civil rights leaders like Mary McCloud Bethune and Walter White that he would support ant-lynching laws but capitulated while in office saying, “I did not choose the tools with which I must work,” he explained. “Had I been permitted to choose them I would have selected quite different ones. But I’ve got to get legislation passed by Congress to save America. The Southerners… occupy strategic places on most of the Senate and House committees. If I come out for the antilynching bill now, they will block every bill I ask Congress to pass to keep America from collapsing. I just can’t take that risk.” was that courage?! As an African American I can say that it made perfect political sense, but it wasn’t courageous! It was a compromise! YES, FDR COMPROMISED! YES, RFK AND JFK COMPROMISED! YES, LBJ COMPROMISED! AND THEIR COMPROMISES HAD REAL CONSEQUENCES FOR BLACK PEOPLE. IT IS THE HEIGHT OF WHITE LIBERAL RACISM THAT YOU CHERRY PICK FROM THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THESE MEN TO DIMINSH A BLACK PRESIDENT!
Until I read your post I was not aware of one single piece of information that was included in your second paragraph. What you have written adds a lot of perspective. Thank you.
Thank you for reminding folks in your second paragraph.
Also, the reason that labor unions failed in the South is that the national unions would not go to the mat on the Southern Textile Worker Strikes of the 1930s because some of the locals decided to include black workers at the mills as part of the local.
Funny how I’ve never seen that quote before. I wonder why? hmmm……
Learn something everyday.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/16/812094/-You-Dont-Have-The-Stomach-For-Politics
Thank you for sharing this.
Despite the points made in the article I see the community insists on responding with Obama fault arguments.
My read was that it was time to over scapegoat Obama and look instead to building a better mousetrap for the elections so that just for once the electorate gives Progressives a real majority and the teabaggers a ticket home.
Even if you’re convinced Obama would still not give us a Progressive agenda, it would still be on a better track than fighting these fools.
You are right, but your prescription raised the terrible prospect of work.
I just want to say that I was nodding my head as i read this piece Booman. Very well written and I agree with all of it.
I also am quite saddened that the same people that are roasting Obama for making his stand now are roasting him for not making his stand before this, and for not forcing the republicans to come forth with his majical mind powers. Guys, come on. He is in a situation where the media is largely against him, its easier to gum up the works than anyone realized, the constitution gives the power of revenue to congress, and congress is full or fanatical libertarians that actually want to destroy congress. Obama cannot act till congress has compleatly abrogated that constitutional responsibility. If he does it before that the media will be calling him a dictator that didn’t allow them time to come in for a compromise like they were about to in the next 30 seconds.
Yes you can rant that all he had to do is stand on a soapbox and rant away, but I have been always impressed by the patience and deftness of his moves even when I don’t agree with him. Frankly if he had been screaming like Rush Limbaugh like you all want, you all would have wound up tearing yourselves apart and the Republicans would look sane for opposing him. Hell when Obama finally lost it at Cantor 2 weeks ago and ended a meeting, the right wing was full of “Hurr hurr he’s a typical angry black dude.” That’s what would have happened if he had tried the bully pulpit” tactic you all love in your testosterone fueled dreams
You lot have no idea that it might be time to drop your bitching and get behind him for one moment in your entire life. Because the battle is right now. There will be plenty of time for complaining about stuff in the future, but this debt ceiling battle needs to be won, and its today.
I guess I disagree with this. I don’t think anything in politics is “inevitable.”
I think the administration left a lot of rhetorical bullets in the chamber. What was the single most cost effective and efficient thing they’ve done in their entire time in office?
The GM bailout. And Chrysler too.
And what was the auto bailout? A public-private partnership, basically, to revive a core national industry, streamline it back into profitability, preserve jobs, and retrofit it for the future. And look how well it worked. GM sells fewer cars, but is now profitable. And thanks to the cooperation between government and industry, new fuel efficiency standards just got announced that will have huge environmental benefits. This sequence of decisions made and money spent might well be the administration’s finest hour.
And look how it just sits their like a wet fart with the public. The new standards? Announced to near silence. Because the administration isn’t choosing to make that philosophy of capitalism and effective government intersecting the core of their public face and mission. It should be the jumping off point for everything else they want to do in office.
If you can’t win politically on the auto bailout, then maybe you suck a little bit more at politics than people thought…
I disagree with you on a couple of things like your interpretation of this:
“in tough times the government needs to tighten its belt.”
Obama HAS called for spending. Everyone who argues this point never points out that Obama has always called for “investments” right after he uses the belt analogy. When Republicans say he really means spending, they’re right. It is his twist on a belief that has been drilled into voters heads. He didn’t think he could make them do a 180 so he added on a big “BUT” which the American people bought into. That is where the “balanced approach”comes from.
And that statement about his base? The real base is afraid that the economy will collapse and is probably giving everyone low marks right now. The Democratic base values compromise. There was a poll/graph that proved that, I just can’t find it right now. They do not see compromise as weakness.
Muddled message is a failed message. That’s why Democrats suck at it.
Oops forgot to you an A+ for this post even though I disagreed with a couple of things.
But another part of the answer lies with the president — and his inability or unwillingness to use the bully pulpit to tell Americans the truth, and mobilize them for what must be done.
The enemy of Satan = Koch Bros. = John Birch Society = Murdoch = Tea Party = Republican Party is the truth. Dots connected.
The President has significant and extreme opposition to telling Americans the truth, and mobilizing them for what must be done, exposing a coup attempt and thwarting it.
FDR seems to have failed to do this in the 30’s.
Boo…when will YOU give up on Keynesian economics?
It doesn’t work…history is replete with examples.
This “Great Recession” should be the ultimate death knell of Keynesian ideology…we are running unprecedented deficits, and growth is anemic.
The failure of Keynes’ philosophy can be summed up in one simple phrase…”The money has to come from somewhere”…you can tax, borrow, or print (inflation is a clever way of taxing those who hold cash, as their dollars become less valuable)…that money comes from somewhere, where it was productively used by the private sector, to be unproductively used by the government. Government does not compete, and uses capital inefficiently…the higher a percentage of a society’s wealth is controlled by Government, the less productive that society will become.
Sorry…it just doesn’t work.
Unprecedented deficits, which are smaller as a % of GDP than in several other historical periods.
“that money comes from somewhere, where it was productively used by the private sector”
Borrowed and printed money would have been otherwise used by the private sector? Money that didn’t exist until the government created it?
Perhaps Booman doesn’t agree with you about economics because he doesn’t have egregious gaps in his knowledge.
Where does borrowed money come from? Who would have used that money, and for what purpose? Is there less money available for private business to borrow? What about the cost of money (i.e. interest rates)…are they affected?
When you print money and spend it, the value of the money already in circulation decreases…
Money and wealth are not the same thing…inflation decreases the wealth (tax?) of those who have it, and increases the wealth of those who receive the printed money…
As far as being a troll…for some strange reason posting comments on a progressive blog is some strange stress-relieving weekend entertainment for me…after all, I spend many hours during the work week exploiting poor, innocent poor people to enrich myself…hard work!
Although, somehow when I earned $3.35 per hour working for an evil corporation in 1984 (bag boy at Safeway), I was grateful for the money, and was happy when the evil corporation realized a profit.
I guess that’s what happens when you read “Atlas Shrugged” as a freshman in college. (Just for the record…she was wrong on one item…there is a God!)
I know you’re happy to be a serf, groveling at the feet of our Galtian Overlords, but we have more dignity than that.
And yes, you are a troll.
Who are the Galtian overlords? Serf? What does freedom mean to you?
The only “Overlord” I have is our benevolent, all-powerful, omniscient, wise Federal Government.
“Where does borrowed money come from?”
Future taxpayers, who are richer because that money was created and used to stimulate the economy than they would have been otherwise.
” Who would have used that money, and for what purpose?” Most of “that money” would not have been available for anyone to use, because economic growth would have been slower and the economy smaller without the stimulus.
“Is there less money available for private business to borrow?” No, there is more, when this is done during a recession.
” What about the cost of money (i.e. interest rates)…are they affected?” No, not if a proper Keynesian policy is followed during both the downturn and the upswing.
“When you print money and spend it, the value of the money already in circulation decreases…Money and wealth are not the same thing…inflation decreases the wealth (tax?) of those who have it, and increases the wealth of those who receive the printed money…” That’s a wonderful theory. In practice, the inflation rate during 2009 was negative, as we borrowed and printed record (nominal) amounts of money. Among the glaring gaps in your knowledge is an understanding of what deflation is.
“As far as being a troll…”
You’re not a troll. You’re just wrong.
“for some strange reason posting comments on a progressive blog is some strange stress-relieving weekend entertainment for me”
I understand. For some strange reason, I spent 7.5 years as a frequent commenter at the libertarian Reason blog. That’s how I became so familiar with the glaring holes in market-fetishist economic theory.
“I was grateful for the money, and was happy when the evil corporation realized a profit.” Good thing there was enough demand to keep that evil corporation in business. They didn’t keep you on staff out of the kindness of their hearts, you know. They did it because there were enough little people with enough money in their pockets to make hiring you profitable.
“Where does borrowed money come from?”
It depends on who’s doing the borrowing, but in general the human beings who are involved in the entity that is borrowing – but at some time, short- or long-term in the future. Borrowing and lending is a way of shifting the timing of transactions.
The issue is when do you pay off that transaction. And how large an accumulation of future claims is too large.
“Who would have used that money and for what purpose?”
That is always unknowable with opportunity costs. If you are talking about federal borrowing in the current economic situation, the answer is likely securities firms buying and selling securities to capture profits on sales at rising and falling market prices? Because bankers are skittish about lending to an economy that has slack demand. Interest rates reflect an inflation discount and a risk discount. The federal T-bill rate until this May reflected a pure inflation discount. Commercial rates reflected an inflation discount, a risk discount, and a markup. So if you have looked at interest rates for capitalizing your business, the inflation discount is 3% (really it is close to zero); the remainder is the risk discount and markup. The main source of risk is lack of customers at the level predicted by your business plan. Yes, the interest rates are affected when government borrows–by the inflation discount. The fact is that the real interest rates in January 2009 were sub-zero; folks would have to pay people to borrow. Which is what the government did for banks; it paid them to borrow from their reserves. Actually the nominal interest rate was slightly above 0% in a rapidly deflating economy (falling house prices is deflation).
“When you print money and spend it, the value of the money already in circulation decreases…”
Only if there are not enough goods and services to buy, if the total GDP (money value of production) is less than the money issued to flow in the other direction as purchases.
Sometimes this statement is true and sometimes it is false. In 1979, it was definitely true and Carter’s appointee Paul Volcker did some shock treatment; he spiked the interest rates to 20%. Three years later the stagflation of the 1970s was broken. (Ronald Reagan’s massive military budget got rid of the “stag”)
“Money and wealth are not the same thing…inflation decreases the wealth (tax?) of those who have it, and increases the wealth of those who receive the printed money..”
Economic wealth generally is thought of as the net accumulated assets, real and financial that one possesses. For most middle-class folks, their wealth is in the form of their primary residence.
Folks often talk about inflation as a tax because it is not selective; it applies across the economy, just like an equitable tax would. Inflation decreases the wealth of those with financial assets and increases the wealth of those with real assets. It increases the wealth of those with financial liabilities and decrease the wealth of those who are the counterparties to those liabilities.
Let’s talk about “printing money”, unfortunate shorthand for several different processes. The image that comes to mind are the printing presses at federal mints that print currency. That is one way to issue money, and it is controlled statutorially as to a maximum dollar amount. There is a fairly predictable supply and demand for currency (“cash” in ordinary terms). And the total amount is not a major factor in the economy.
The second way of printing money is coin seignorage. You take a tenth of a cent of materials, stamp 1-cent on it and that is what it is accepted as being worth (so little that you can accumulate a fortune just by finding pennies abandoned on the street because it is not worth anyone’s time to pick them up). This amount is a major factor in the numismatic market, but not in the economy in general.
The third way of printing money is to issue reserves to banks as loans based on a reserve of deposits by banks in their reserve account. These are issued as banks demand it and repaid to the Federal Reserve per the terms of the loan. The Federal Reserve operates on a fractional reserves system, and so do the banks. They loan more than they have on reserve. How much more is how the Fed regulates the amount of money in the money supply. It can loosen or tighten the fraction of loans that banks must keep in reserve; it can increase or decrease the interest rate that it changes banks (the Fed fund rate) to borrow. There is no Treasury money involved in this process at all. It is all being a bank for bankers. It is the largest part of the money supply. And the Fed can and has used this mechanism to counterbalance transactions in which Treasury action might adversely effect the size of the money supply.
The last is the issuance of federal debt, the majority of T-bills. First of all, the biggest holder ($2.7T) of the federal debt is the Social Security Trust Fund, a very patient investor. And there is debt held by the Federal Reserve as assets that it can sell or buy to control the money supply. And the Fed acts as agent for Treasury sales of T-bills to finance the debt not absorbed by intragovernment transfers.
When it acts prudently, the Fed tries to have the money supply closely match the money value of the GDP. (And the supply-demand conditions in the foreign exchange markets.)
So the expansion of the government debt does not cause inflation unless it causes the money supply to greatly exceed the money value of production. In that environment businesses can make calculations based on the supply-demand information that pricing, purchases, or customer resistance are communicating.
When it acts prudently….The problem is that all Presidents of all parties are tempted to encourage the Fed chair to goose the economy by increasing the money supply slightly above expected GDP. And since Carter appointed Volcker draw down the money supply if there is public anxiety about inflation. The Fed chair can do this through fed funds rates and reserve requirements.
The problem with the credit default swaps market that appeared in the 2000s was that it could increase the money supply without government action. The same network effects that allow a relatively small amount of bank reserves to service a $16T economy and increase the money supply through interest payments. Those same network effects caused the CDS market to function as an unregulated international banking system that created money. That money went into inflating asset prices through loans; they were almost paying people to take out loans. It created a bubble; the bubble, as all bubble do, burst and made a big mess. In January of 2009, the nominal value of the asset chain back to the original mortgages was $100T. If everyone had defaulted all the way up the chain, that would have been the amount of money destroyed at one fell swoop.
Last point. The economy is a network that is a closed system. What goes around comes around. Hoarding here means shortage there, if it is chronic. Families (households) and businesses (firms) are open components in this system. There are effects in the economy itself that are not predictable by knowing what households or firms are doing. In an analogy with the internet, households and firms have system managers; the economy requires a network manager. The global economic system has evolved with governments taking the function of network managers. Up until now, the information requirements to do that required centralization and central stores of economic data. But as the global economy has developed, national governments that were network administrators have had to coordinate their activities in order to make sure that economic problems in one part of the work don’t propagate globally.
There is no escape from government. If it is not an independent institution, an economic institution like a corporation or a cultural institution like a church picks up its responsibilities. Shrinking the size of government as an independent institution in the US context shrinks the areas of democratic control over society. Corporations do not have the mandate to operate democratically. Cultural institutions like churches don’t have the mandate to operate democratically. The US government does have that mandate, no matter how subverted it has become by money.
I guess that’s what you get when you read Atlas Shrugged as your economic text. The normal sequence would be: Adam Smith (both Wealth of Nations and Theory of Human Sentiments), David Ricardo, Thomas Malthus, Alfred Marshall, Leon Walras, Vilfredo Pareto, Joseph Schumpeter, John Maynard Keynes, Kenneth Boulding, Ronald Coase, and then you need math for folks like the Nobel Laureate work of Friedman and Kenneth Arrow. If you want to read the daddy of Keynesianism, get a copy of Paul Samuelson’s Economics, a textbook that was the standard introductory course for three decades. For a more recent view of the same material, there’s Stiglitz’s text in economics, used in quite a few colleges.
When I was a stocker at F.F.-J.M. Fields in 1962, making 75 cents an hour, I was grateful for the opportunity, happy when the corporation made a profit, and a little sad when the store later closed. But that was back in the old days when unions were still strong and companies from Massachusetts that came to SC treated folks with respect because they didn’t want their union to add another local. I later had some inside looks at the kind of data, corporations use to make decisions. And the reluctance to change their business practices and systems to get better data. And I saw a group of professionals work their butts off to establish the reputation of a start-up, who were then told by their nepotistically-appointed CEO (the wayward son of the major investor) that he was not going to share in the profits because skills like theirs were a “dime a dozen”. Whose model of pay-for-productivity was piece-work compensation with rising quotas.
Corporations are amoral. The people within them are often so driven by the corporate logic that they turn amoral at best and immoral at worst. And loose incorporation laws and accountability (“piercing the corporate veil”) have allowed companies to run roughshod over customers, employees, suppliers, and communities. With the blithe excuse, “it’s not my fault; our responsibility is to our stockholders”.
If I took the time for a proper response, point by point…my wife will divorce me.
Maybe I’ll wake up early tomorrow and sneak in a proper response.
The short answer is…there is no consumption without production…imagine a desert island…no production, no consumption. You can employ very sophisticated arguments on both sides, but you cannot escape that basic reality.
No supply, no demand–supply and production come first. Laffer wins, Keynes loses.
Desert Isle, huh?
Okay. Imagine that Liberty Island has a king, a banker, an industrialist and a landlord. And imagine that the rest of the people work for the industrialist making coconut radios for export.
People work for the coconut-radio magnate in order to pay money to the landlord for rent. They also pay some tribute to the king, as do the industrialist and the landlord.
Most people make enough money to pay their rent, but not all of them. So, some people go to the king and ask for help. The king is happy to oblige.
As the population prospers, the landlord needs to create more housing, so he starts employing some people. And the industrialist needs to expand his business to make more money and to keep full employment on the island.
So, they both go to the banker to borrow some money. But the banker has gone broke. Now they can’t build more houses or expand their radio factory, so they have to lay some people off. More people go to the king to ask for rent subsidies. People stop buying coconut radios. The king is starting to go broke too, and no one has enough money.
The solution? The king either turn into Midas and prints some money or he cuts people”s tribute responsibilities (but this worsens his liquidity problem) or he goes to some other kingdom and borrows money from them.
But, no matter what he does, he’s got to get that banker back on his feet loaning money and he’s got to make sure that people have money to spend so that he’s not on the hook for all their rent.
This is the basic idea. If the King doesn’t step in, the bank can’t fix it, the industrialist can’t fix it, and the landlord can’t fix it.
This is not understanding macro 101. Sad.
Consumption and production are linked by money. Money is not neutral, and money is fiat… I know is difficult to understand, but this has some complications than a barter economy does not have. Among them the possibility of getting into a liquidity trap where people demand money (or equivalents) instead of good .. and therefore production does not happen.
It is amazing the level of brainwashing that some people have. Believing that the island is proper metaphor for the economy requires a serious suspension of disbelieve.
A pleasure
I think my analogy works just fine.
You don’t need to talk about liquidity traps. All you need is a situation where there is no banking system. As soon as that happens, someone has to recreate one, in a hurry. And if people are broke, they need money to spend. If the King is broke, too, then he has to do some alchemy.
No. Don’t think so. You are a Troll. And you’re out of your league here.
Goodbye.
By the way, if you are really interested in the impact of debt on our children and grandchildren, the IRS does take donations to pay off the debt.
The ONLY other era where deficits as a percentage of GDP was lower was World War Two…that’s it.
You think we are in “wars” now…that was a total war requiring all-out effort…and we are close to that deficit now.
“Money that didn’t exist until the government created it”…that says it all, progressives.
If you can’t understand the difference between money and wealth…wow…we are truly screwed.
Wealth equals goods and services…money equals a means by which we exchange wealth, and store value…
Government contributes nothing…it is hired by us to protect our rights…that’s it.
Unbelievable.
The constitution itself states why the US government exists:
That’s a little more than the reduced version “rights” that libertarians think the government should protect.
Markets don’t exist without government providing a place, enforcing contracts, enforcing standard weights and measures. Without government, markets always destroy themselves. Markets self-organize under certain conditions. Without government, the gaming that goes on destroys trust in trade. The 2008 crash did not happen because government did anything; it happened because in the absence of regulations, the dishonest gaming of the mortgage, risk, and credit default swap industries created a collapse of trust by the counterparties.
In that great age of the Robber Barons of the 19th century when there was no government regulation of securities, the securities markets had numerous panics. Most were only stopped when a powerful banker stepped in and asked the board of the market to suspend trading. J. P. Morgan played that role of government regulator on several occasions. From the passage of federal government regulations of banking and securities until the Reagan administration, there was no securities market panics or crashes because of the regulation of government agencies. As those regulations receded, there was the crash of 1987 (from the introduction of computerized trading), the IT bubble of 1999-2000, and the housing securities crash of 2008.
In World War II, FDR had the wisdom to (1) ensure that there was a highly progressive tax structure to discourage profiteering from the war, (2) passed strict laws controlling wages and prices, administered by among others John Kenneth Galbraith, (3) impose rationing of war-essential materials. George W. Bush, on the other hand, cut taxes, loosened regulations so much that $9B in cash was stolen in Iraq, allowed contractors like Blackwater to profiteer, increased the use of private military contractors, which increase the opportunities for profiteering (even privatizing intelligence activities), encouraged the public to keep spending, and would not raise the fuel efficiency standards that might have cut the cost of fuel for the military by less fuel consumption at home.
The day that George W. Bush took office, the public debt was $5.7T. Total revenue was $1.9T. The day that Barack Obama took office, the public debt was $10.6T. Total revenue was $2.1T. Total revenue for 2011 is estimated to be $2.1T. George W. Bush doubled the debt, and because of the great Bush boom revenue rose only by $200B to cover $4.9T more in debt. That’s the difference between the way that FDR handled WWII and Bush handled his two wars. Bush gave you more freedom.
I wonder how deep your understanding of Keynesian economics is.
Let me kind of turn your own phrase around for you.
The money has to come from somewhere for people to buy stuff.
Now, when your banks are flat-broke because of lax lending policies, that means people who deserve loans can’t get them. And that means that they’re lucky to meet payroll and certainly won’t be expanding their businesses to create new jobs.
With the stock market at nearly half it’s previous value, and people’s mortgages suddenly underwater, ordinary consumers have no access to money, and they cut back their demand.
Unemployment rises, further reducing demand.
What you have is a feedback loop where low demand and tight credit feed layoffs which makes demand worse.
The role of the government is to step in and create the missing demand in order to break up the cycle of economic doom.
You can look at a chart of economic growth or unemployment from late 2007 to late 2010 and you’ll see the same thing on both charts. Once the stimulus had time to kick in, job losses reversed to job gains and negative growth turned to positive growth.
And then you’ll see those gains stall in late-2010 as the stimulus petered out.
There’s evidence to support what I’m saying if you’re willing to look at it.
Keynes did not engage in philosophy. He was an economist and he wrote about some interesting things that he noticed. If you take a vacation through The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (most libraries of any size have a copy), you might see this. There are folks after Keynes who tried to turn his insights into a philosophy called Keynesianism, but that is symptomatic of the the scholastic turn economics took at some universities after World War II.
Let’s look at one of those observations.
The individual private sector decisions of individuals, when aggregated, sometimes lead to inefficient economic outcomes.
Have you ever notice that happen? Let’s be clear what efficient means here. It means the market’s ability to rapidly clear transactions between sellers and buyers. “Rapidly” is a relative term constrained by technology.
You might not notice it, but right now the capital markets in spite of several rounds of tax cuts are not connecting with business owners who need sufficient capital to operate. There is about $1T or more of funds playing pattycake in investing in government debt (a sure 3% today, maybe more next week) and in exotic derivative investment vehicles. There is no money for investment in workplaces.
Or another example of when virtue becomes vice. If one business cuts costs by laying off people, that delivers more money to the bottom line. If all business units do the same, that takes more money away from the top line. In the second case, private actions virtuous individually, circle back and hurt all businesses. Businesses are capable to making these collectively bad decisions on their own, without the interference of the government. That is the history of the frequent bouts of unemployment and financial panics in the 19th century.
So when this happens, what do you do. If businesses continue with the same behavior, it will dig the hole deeper. How do you get businesses to change behavior? Typically you have to provide them incentives. The usual form that an incentive to hire people comes in is customers, more customers than the business can handle and the fear of loss business to competitors.
So what if too many customers are unemployed and even more of them are afraid of being unemployed, what is the virtuous thing to do? Live within your means, pull back on spending. It’s virtuous if a few do it. If everybody does it (lack of consumer confidence) or everyone in maxed out on their credit cards (can’t do it) or unemployed and exhausted benefits (really can’t do it), the aggregate effect is fewer consumers coming in through the door.
Growth in the economy = growth in GDP (in every economist’s view)
and
GDP = money value of total demand by consumers +
money value of total demand by businesses whose investments are consumption instead of saving +
money value of total demand of government consumption of goods and services +
money value of exports minus imports (balance of trade)
In other words, you can either increase sales to consumers, increase sales to a businesses or nonprofits seeking a good or service, increase sales to the local, state , or federal government or international agencies, or sell to a foreign consumer.
Can you think of any thing else that would drive you to increase production and employment?
So if consumers can afford to increase consumption, businesses are waiting for consumers to increase consumption before buying increased amounts of goods and services, and foreign customers are not increase their purchases of goods and services, who’s left?
If you deny the government the role of consumer of last resort, where is the growth in the economy going to come from?
Remember this all started from one observation by Keynes. The aggregate of individual private economic decisions, not matter how prudent for an individual, can produce inefficient economic outcomes.
Like, the capital markets are not clearing so as to provide growth in the number of workplaces. Like, the labor markets are not clearing; there are both employers and workers who have not established employment relationships. Like, consumers demand and productive capacity are not clearing supply; in fact supply has be cut back for lack of demand, repeatedly.
So if you were designing a policy to deal with the economy in its current state, what would you do?
The people with their hands on the faucet believe that a recession is caused by a collapse of aggregate virtue, and a period of stringent austerity is what we need to make us good again. Salutary effects on popular morality from poverty, etc. etc.
We’re not dealing with fresh-water economics. We’re not dealing with salt-water economics.
We’re dealing with holy-water economics.
And you can’t refute a theology.
Indeed. They openly admit to not trusting mathematical models, statistics, and well…evidence.
I don’t think the wingers actually believe that.
They worship St. Ronnie (the patron saint of deficits) and they cheered every budget busting move Dubya made.
It’s like how they oppose nation building unless there’s a republican in charge.
They just find a way to rationalize all their contradictory positions.
…AND Patron Saint of Tax Increases. It’s true. But they all believe in this Fox News Revisionist History. He even made people start paying income tax on things like Social Security payments and Unemployment payments. Never heard of before, in fact, considered to be cruel. But he made sure to keep the rates really low on the victimized “Job Creator” class. You never know when they’ll need another Chauffeur, Maid or Butler…
Wingers will always oppose anything a Dem supports, if only to deny the Dems any victory.
As for the bully pulpit, they don’t response to public pressure. Look at how they all voted to kill Medicare even though the polls are overwhelming against it.