For months we have been forced by politicians in Washington to address the wrong problem at the wrong time: deficit reduction without tax hikes during a deep, deep recession, or as I like to call it the Not So Great Depression. We wasted valuable month not addressing the single most important thing that gets you out of economic difficulties: creating jobs. Sure, it was mostly the Republicans (especially the ideologues huddled under the Tea Party banner) who are to blame, but a lot of Beltway Dems and Media Elites fed into to the phony “deficit” crisis story, when the real problem facing our nation was ignored. Economists of all stripes were running around with their hair on fire telling anyone who would listen that job creation (which would increase both tax revenue and demand for goods and services) was far more important than the death match we just went through over raising the debt ceiling.
Well, we sure solved that debt ceiling issue for the time being. However, the grand debt ceiling bargain only promises more spending cuts, less stimulus, and more job losses. So it shouldn’t come as a shock that the stock markets aren’t thrilled with the result, especially in light of bad news regarding lack of growth on the labor front (per the Wall Street Journal, Murdoch Mouthpiece):
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Commodities, currency and equities markets were in a state of near-panic Thursday, as central banks took increasingly drastic steps to salvage the global economic recovery.
Stocks and oil prices plunged, while gold set new record highs as investors flocked to assets they hoped would hold their value if major economics slipped back into recession.
Investors already nervous about slowing growth in the U.S. and Europe were further rattled when Japan’s government launched a yen-selling campaign. Officials said the move–backed by Y10 trillion in easing measures from the central bank–was necessary to counter a sharp rise in the yen’s value, which threatens a fragile economic recovery. Switzerland’s central bank made a similar move on Wednesday.
In essence, most if not all the gains the markets made earlier in the year have been erased. Austerity is not a plan for economic recovery. All it does is artificially inflate the price of bonds, and even at that it ultimately fails. Just ask the bondholders who lost their money when Argentina defaulted on its debts. But austerity plans do a dandy job of killing good jobs:
There are two problems with the jobs recovery: Employers haven’t added enough jobs. And those they have added aren’t particularly good ones. […]
“Growth has been concentrated in mid-wage and lower-wage industries. By contrast, higher-wage industries showed weak growth and even net losses,” said Annette Bernhardt, policy co-director for the National Employment Project. She said that growth has been far more unbalanced than during previous job recoveries.
Bernhardt’s analysis of the first seven months of job growth in 2010 found that 76 percent of jobs created were in low- to mid-wage industries — those earning between $8.92 to $15 an hour, on average, well below the national average hourly wage of $22.60 in 2010.
You keep cutting spending and all you do is add to a vicious cycle. Cutting spending leads to more jobs lost in both the public and private sector, lower demand, fewer jobs created and those that are created — how shall I put this? — suck. It happened in 1937 when Roosevelt felt compelled to do a deal with the deficit hawks of his era, and it’s happening now. Luckily for the US economy (though not for the millions of people who died) the massive spending increases brought about by America’s entry into WWII more than made up for that mistake.
However, I don’t see any world war on the horizon that will provide the sort of government stimulus spending we need, much less tax increases ion the wealthy to help pay for it. No, that kind of national sacrifice is a thing of the past.
And yes, this is the Republicans plan to win the elections next year: keep the misery index high.
In fact, misery, as measured in the unofficial Misery Index that simply totals the unemployment and inflation rates, is at a 28-year high, reflective of how weak the economic recovery has been and how far there is to go. […]
That was back in June when investors in the markets were still relatively optimistic. Back before we knew government was only going to be allowed to “contract” by Congress, and Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits will be put at risk by the so-called “super commission.” We already know that whatever tax increases or tax reform recommendations are proposed by the super commission the Republicans won’t agree to them. We also know the defense department and defense industry are gearing up to prevent their ox from being gored. Which leaves – guess what — cuts to Medicare among other social safety net programs, guaranteed by none other than Eric Cantor:
WASHINGTON—House Majority Leader Eric Cantor on Wednesday suggested that Republicans will continue a push to overhaul programs such as Medicare, saying in an interview that “promises have been made that frankly are not going to be kept for many” and that younger Americans will have to adjust. […]
Congress left Medicare recipients untouched directly in order to win enough Democratic votes for the debt package to become law.
But Republicans could make a new push to cut back on Medicare as the debt-reduction deal is implemented. The law initially provides for $917 billion in spending cuts over a decade, but a bipartisan committee of lawmakers must come up with by Nov. 23 a proposal to find another $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction. The panel’s members—half of whom will be Republican lawmakers—could try again to change Medicare.
Erase that “could make a new push to cut back on Medicare” above to “will.” Naturally, any such cuts will have short term and long term consequences for the economy, none of which will benefit anyone who isn’t already wealthier than God or has a guaranteed pension and health care plan when they retire (like Eric Cantor, e.g.).
Yet, we continue to hear doublespeak from our national media regarding the issue of the GOP’s failure to support or enact legislation to create jobs. Oh they cover it for a while, but trust me, come the time when the commission issues its report (or more likely doesn’t) all we will hear about is the need to cut, cut cut spending, but only certain kinds of spending: the kind that hurts most Americans while preserving the wealth and profits of corporations and the wealthy. In short, the debt ceiling bill didn’t end the Republican assault on job creation or cuts to our social safety net. It just made certain that the republicans and the media that enables them will once again generate a phony crisis to cut entitlements.
Progressives have been demanding for moths that Democrats attack Republicans at possible opportunity by shouting the question “Where are the Jobs!” the GOP promised in the mid-term elections. I haven’t seen enough of that to be honest with you. It should be the only talking point the Democrats employ from now until November 2012. We should be organizing rallies to go to Republican town halls to shout that very message: Where are the jobs?” You Republicans promised jobs? Where are they?
We better hope all the Democrats in the House and Senate up for re-election understand that placing the blame for the economic mess 99% of our country is in must be laid at the feet of the Republicans beginning yesterday. My fear, however, is that, just like 2010, Republicans will lie and lie and lie, and in the end the tail of blame for our lack of decent jobs (and possible cuts to entitlements0 will be pinned to the Democratic Donkey. And we all know what that would mean.
And as Digby pointed out today .. the RNC is already runnings ads saying the Democrats are going to take away your Medicare .. sounds like people didn’t learn from last year .. yes .. the GOP will use Orwellian language .. what’s so fu-king hard to understand about that .. that’s why the whole “it only cuts reimbursements to doctors” line is so stupid .. and destructive
The markets know your correct Steven. Look how they are reacting to the Repug and Teabag austerity. They suspect the downward spiral has started even with their great earnings they know the future is bleak.
Little punk ass Cantor casually talks about not keeping promises to the American people. Unlike his corporate friends I have paid my taxes so I take this a bit more seriously. I need those programs and am willing to pay more in tax to keep them. This is real to us out here Cantor you fucking weasel.
Yep, the markets were reacting to austerity and the whole FAA stupid thing. The markets watched the teabaggers lay off 70,000+ workers to save $12 million but then put $1 billion in revenue at risk. That’s the kind of stupid that burns.
Finally! A voice of reason in this wilderness of “reason.”
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See my most recent diaries:
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
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UNITED STATES TRADITION: TRICKLE DOWN ECONOMIC WEALTH
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
…a viscous cycle.
vis-à-vis the “grand debt ceiling bargain” and cantor’s pledge cut medicare, and other safety net programs…aka: “entitlements”.
look who came out lobbying for said reductions; none other than obamas’ newly minted SecDef, leon panetta:
how do you think this is going to fall out……optimistic?
lotsa luck with that, given the…shall we say…lackadaisical leadership and premature capitulation on all things relative to tax increases the past 2 1/2 years.
thanks you very fucking much for putting “entitlements” on the table mr. president. l guess the cat food commission didn’t get the job done.
bon appétit…another shit sandwich is on the menu.
and half the discretionary budget is composed of defense. Is Rummy pulling Panetta’s puppet strings now?
Sounds like the brass who saluted and said “Yes, sir.” to DADT repeal are not happy about the “neutron bomb” provision in the authorization of the Joint Committee. You know the one that says that if they don’t come up with 7 votes there are automatic cuts to entitlements and to the military 50%-50%.
The names of the people on the committee will be a tell. See BooMan’s prediction. It’s probably on target.
All it takes is a Kent Conrad or a Mark Warner or a Diane Feinstein, and the Republicans get everything they want. And the Congress will not be able to vote it down.
ya think.
what l find really appalling, is the blatant duplicity exemplified by the prez and all his sycophants. first claiming that the grand bargain saved medicare and all the other safety net programs, then sending out one of the highest profile cabinet officers to publicly decry that very notion, basically reiterating the ratpublican line.
do you honestly believe panetta would have said that on his first day on the job without explicit approval or instruction from the oval office?
this hypocrisy, basically teeing up the ball on “entitlements” for the rats on both sides of the aisle, leaves little doubt in my mind where obamas’ loyalties lie…and they damn sure aren’t anywhere close to mine.
this is going to result in another hostage crisis and combined with the continuing uncertainty in the markets, long term chronic unemployment hovering arounf 9%…if you believe the “official govt numbers”… may well be the death knell for obamas prospects for a second term.
all it’s going to take is for someone like bloomberg to mount an independent campaign…and contrary to his protestations to the contrary, he’s jonesin’ to be prez…the rat’s to throw up a total loser, and voila…he’s one and done.
l kind of feel a bit rhett butlerish these days…Frankly…l don’t give a damn.
Let me fan the flames of paranoia here.
The European stock markets were being hammered by the bond market putting pressure on Italy, which raises its borrowing costs right before a new round of refinancing. And there is doomsday talk about the Eurozone and its currency the euro being threatened. If the euro fails and the Eurozone goes back to national currencies, it would create expectations of the fragmentation of the European Union and NATO. There are already nationalist parties in most European countries with severe right-wing and bigoted agendas.
If the European Union falls apart, you might see that World War. Bankers are playing a very risky political game in trying to get more and more out of declining economies, that are in the state they are in because of them.
Austerity begets crisis.
And we are ruled by the same idiots who screwed up the world in the 1930s. But without a strong socialist movement and the feet on the ground of a rising labor movement. At any time between 1930 and 1980, the FAA shutdown would have brought an industry-wide strike that shut down the entire airline industry. Or at the very least a picket line and refusal to service Delta flights. In the 1930s, the police would have been called. The National Guard would have been called out by the governor and it would have been a big mess.
We are not there yet. We are not yet to the point of the Bonus Army. But after December’s Joint Committee recommendations, we might be. Especially if the cuts in the military hit military pay and pensions.