In 2009, New Jersey voters went to the polls to elect a governor. Their choices were not promising. On the Republican side was a former U.S. Attorney who had done enough of Karl Rove and Alberto Gonzales’s bidding to avoid getting fired. On the other side was the former co-CEO of Goldman Sachs. In a just world, they would have both been in jail instead of on the ballot. Maybe Jon Corzine will be there soon. Despite the New Jersey electorate’s heavy preference for Democrats, they couldn’t stomach another four years of governance from a symbol of the economic collapse. Corzine was kicked to the curb.
It’s now two years later and the economy hasn’t improved all that much. Goldman Sachs remains unpopular and people are “occupying” Wall Street to protest economic injustice. It seem to be a very bad time to put forward a political candidate with close ties to the banking industry or the financial services sector. But it must be a really bad time to nominate a candidate for president with ties to the second biggest Ponzi scheme in recorded history. And that appears to be what the Republicans are on the cusp of doing. As Think Progress reports, Mitt Romney has close business, political, and familial ties to the Stanford Financial Group, which carried out a $8.5 billion fraud on its investors.
It is bad enough that Romney built his fortune at Bain Capital specializing in Vulture Capitalism. In a time of economic insecurity, who wants to be led by a man whose greatest expertise is downsizing companies and outsourcing jobs? But to discover that his response to the second biggest Ponzi scheme in history was to have his son recruit the crooks and then to invest $10 million to have them set up another investment company?
Let’s deal with some facts. Never in recorded political history have we seen a candidate for office who has taken three sides of so many issues. No one has ever flip-flop-flipped as many times as Mitt Romney. On top of that, the conservative base of the party absolutely hates the man. They don’t trust him for good reason, since he never sticks to a position. And many of the conservative Christians (particularly Southern Baptists) consider Mormonism a competitor as well as a cult. These are two massive liabilities for a nationwide candidate. If you can’t fire up your base and you can’t stand on any principle, you already have two strikes against you.
But being a Vulture Capitalist who goes into business with Ponzi Schemers? Huge Ponzi Schemers? That has to be a third strike.
Looking at the Republican field of candidates, almost all fair observers have come to the conclusion that Mitt Romney is far and away the strongest and most viable general election candidate. That has certainly been my opinion. And what’s truly scary is that despite these Think Progress revelations, I think it’s still true that Romney is the GOP’s best chance.
While ordinarily I would predict that Romney’s ties to economic fraudsters would doom his prospects for the nomination, his competition is imploding right along with him. Rick Perry is so bad as a candidate that The Economist is openly mocking him. After putting out a trial balloon about skipping some debates (because he does so poorly in them), Perry went up on the air in Iowa with an ad that tried to turn his weakness into a strength.
“If you’re looking for a slick politician or a guy with great teleprompter skills, we already have that, and he’s destroying our economy”, Mr Perry says, nodding toward both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. “I’m a doer, not a talker”.
To which The Economist responded:
Not to be overly pedantic, but talking is a kind of doing. Indeed, talking is primarily how one gets things done in politics. How does Mr Perry convey that he is a doer, and not a talker? By talking. What else is there? Interpretative dance? A presidential candidate unable to best a foe in a public exchange, or to communicate his position on a complex issue when the heat is on, is about as useful as a one-legged fullback. There’s a good reason Mr Perry’s embarrassing debate performances have left him trailing Herman Cain by 15 points in the polls not long after he entered the race with a comfortable lead: a candidate this feckless on his feet would be eaten alive by Barack Obama in the general-election debates.
And then there was Perry’s strange speech in New Hampshire on Friday night that left NPR asking:
Has any modern major-party presidential candidate in recent memory ever given a speech that left so many people afterwards asking if he was under-the-influence during his talk as was the case after Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s now infamous appearance in New Hampshire last Friday?
Then there is the tortured spectacle of Herman Cain trying to explain away a couple of sexual harassment settlements the National Restaurant Association made on his behalf in the late 1990’s. Yes, he is benefiting financially off the revelations in the short-term, but his bumbling response does not bode well for his long-term prospects, especially in a general election against President Obama.
With the Big Three Republican candidates all simultaneously imploding, there ought to be room for some lower-tier candidate to move up. But it is impossible to see more than about a quarter of the Republican base embracing Ron Paul, whose positions on foreign policy and the drug wars are anathema to most conservatives. And no one other than Mr. Paul is even showing a pulse in the nominating contest. Rick Santorum’s campaign is smart enough to smell blood, but that can’t change the fact that their candidate is ridiculous and the object of ridicule. Michele Bachmann is out of money and ideas. Almost by default, that leaves no one but Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman to pick up the slack. Paul Gigot thinks Newt might surge to the front of the pack, and I can’t say he’s wrong. It seems more likely than Jon Huntsman suddenly getting traction.
One thing is certain. This is the worst political party this country has seen since the Whigs disintegrated.
Also available in orange.
the best segment on the Perry speech in NH was Rachel Maddow last night. it was absolutely ridiculous. he is SO not ready for The Big Leagues
I missed that. I’m sure it was amusing.
I can.
A hearty lol at the GOP primary states barreling ahead with their scheduling dates, to the point where no other late entrance candidate can possibly save them. What on earth were the likes of Huckabee and Daniels and whoever else thinking when they bailed on this thing?
Oh well, feel the Mor-mentum. Now with 100% more ponzi scheme for added flavoring!
… a candidate this feckless on his feet would be eaten alive by Barack Obama in the general-election debates.
This is something I keep thinking about. The thing is, whoever the Republicans nominate is going to be eaten alive by Obama. Hell, it wouldn’t even have to be Obama. Whoever they nominate is going to have to defend the party’s plan to fix the economy by dismantling the federal government.
I don’t see how they can change course. Things are sort of inexorably moving toward a situation where Obama and the Republican nominee will be offering voters an exceptionally clear and simple choice: Shall we do something about the economy or shall we do nothing? I wouldn’t want to be the one who had to try to argue that cutting taxes and regulations constitutes doing something.
Yes, but who is the DSCC and DCCC recruiting? People that aren’t going to help fix the mess, if elected. What does that tell you? If the Democrats weren’t a corrupted empty shell, they’ve be throwing the GOP an anvil. But they aren’t.
I’d be inclined to believe that if current financial events weren’t reminding me so strongly of the summer of 2008.
The United States, the various Euro bodies, the Bank of Japan, they all keep proposing bigger and more complicated measures that keep buying them less and less credit and time from the markets. All the while burning more and more of little credibility they have left with their own people (and voters).
It’ll probably all be muddled through, but damn if it doesn’t have the potential to go catastrophic in a hurry.
The thing about them going into business AGAIN with the Ponzi Schemers.
the ads write themselves
Conservative Christians do not view Mormons as a competitor (it’s not a competition), but definitely view them as a cult (theological, not necessarily sociological). That said, most Conservative Christians would sooner vote for an avowed atheist before voting for a Mormon – it’s that significant…
The candidate with the most support among Republicans right now is None of the Above. Regardless of what list you draw up. That I find very interesting. Nonetheless, come election day those same people will be pulling the lever for Anybody but Obama.
But no one knows what’s bubbling in the Republican grassroots. All of this analysis is looking from the perspective of DC and the parties and past elections and statistical models of human behavior. Statistic does allow for outliers.
I’ll predict this again. If the nomination is worth having, JEB Bush will take it. Without significant campaigning. At the convention. To “save the Party”. By acclamation (after the backroom deals are done).
The racists won’t want Cain. Wall Street won’t want Ron Paul. No one who wants to win wants Bachmann or Gingrich. Perry is disintegrating. Who else is there? But Bush won’t “save the Party” unless he has a greater than 50% (maybe better than 75%) chance of winning. But movement Republicans and Wall Street will both rally behind “the smart Bush”.
Jeb will wait until peace and prosperity are on the horizon after the Dems or others do the heavy lifting. And then we will witness the “Revenge of Poppy Bush on America – the Sequel”.
I think you’ve made a pretty strong case here that the Republican nominee is likely to be someone who is not yet in the race.
I know, I know, it’s too late to get on the ballot in New Hampshire. But, so what? It’s not like Iowa and New Hampshire have huge numbers of delegates. In fact, as I understand the current rules, all of the early primaries and caucuses are too being held too early, and those states will lose half of their already small (except for Florida) delegations.
Also, it’s quite possible to win New Hampshire without being on the ballot or ever setting foot in the state (or the country, for that matter). Ike won as a write-in in 1952, and Henry Cabot Lodge won in 1964 while serving (execrably, I feel compelled to add) as our ambassador in Saigon.
Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman had a second-strike strategy in 2004. The concept was that Howard Dean was going to sweep through Iowa and New Hampshire, knocking Kerry, Gephardt and Edwards out of the race. Then Clark and/or Lieberman would step forward as the moderate alternative to the supposedly unelectable Dean and compete in the later contests. The idea didn’t work, of course, since Dean didn’t win Iowa and New Hampshire. But I don’t think it was necessarily a bad strategy. You could write a plausible alternative history scenario in which it worked.
You can win New Hampshire without actively competing. You can win the nomination without New Hampshire. So, the filing deadline has passed in New Hampshire. So what?