Another poll has come out showing Newt Gingrich on the rise. This one shows him in second place in Iowa, behind Herman Cain and ahead of Mitt Romney. If you’ve been reading this blog lately, you know that I’ve been predicting that Gingrich would make a move. He’s really the last flavor left for Republicans to sample before they bite the bullet and nominate Multiple-Choice Mitt. It’s getting late enough in the game now that we can begin to make some rational predictions.
The Republican primary calendar has taken shape, and the Iowa Caucuses are now scheduled for Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012. That is only eight weeks away. In the We Ask America automated poll, Rick Perry did not manage to get a single vote from anyone in the 18-24 or 35-44 age categories, even though 864 Republican voters were surveyed. That’s a degree of weakness that is almost unfathomable. Overall, he received the support of a mere 4% of voters. That places him in Rick Santorum (3%) and Jon Huntsman (2%) territory. I’m finding it hard to believe that Perry is doing this badly, but it appears that his campaign is just dead as a doornail.
And, if that’s the case, then we should not expect him to come in first, second, or third place in the Iowa Caucuses. While it’s not that important to win the Iowa Caucuses, it’s devastating to get blown out (at least, if you’ve actually campaigned there). Perry’s weakness has tempted Romney into the contest. That is in itself an interesting development because it was Romney’s loss to Huckabee in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses that threw him off stride and ultimately doomed his campaign. One of the first decisions Romney made for the 2012 cycle was that he would not make the same mistake twice. Until recently, he had no intention of contesting Iowa and he went a full year with only two visits to the Hawkeye State. The problem is that he’s polling well enough that he has no excuse for writing it off.
It remains to be seen if Herman Cain can weather the storm over his creepy history of sexual harassment, especially with news that one of his victims is coming forward. If he doesn’t implode, he looks almost assured of a top three finish in Iowa. In fact, it looks very likely that the top three will be some iteration of Cain-Romney-Gingrich. If Cain falters badly, his support will have to go somewhere, and most of that support will not go to Romney. It may go to the only candidate who looks like he has a chance: Gingrich.
In a knockdown-dragout battle between Romney and Gingrich, I think Romney would prevail in short order. Gingrich is too flawed as a human being to withstand the glare. But he can definitely win Iowa if the cards fall right for him. What’s really uncertain is if Perry can stick around long enough, especially after getting pummeled in Iowa and New Hampshire, to give the Republicans one last chance to derail the nomination of a candidate they collectively hate.