One thing we know about Ron Paul is that his supporters will continue to give him money regardless of whether he has much chance of winning the nomination. In the third quarter, he raised $8.3 million, which dwarfed Herman Cain’s $2.8 million total. Rep. Paul spent almost all of that money, and it has begun to pay dividends in Iowa and New Hampshire. Two recent polls show Paul in a strong second place position in Iowa (ahead of Romney in both cases) and his polling average in New Hampshire shows him in second place, as well. It’s a good time to be surging, although it might be a bit misleading to say Paul is experiencing any kind of substantial momentum. He’s seeing a slight uptick in support as Perry and Cain continue to implode.
The candidate with real momentum is disgraced former Speaker Newt Gingrich:
Gingrich, whose campaign seemed to be on life-support just few weeks ago, is now leading in Iowa by double digits, according to a Rasmussen poll released yesterday. He also tied former Mass. Gov. Romney in a nationwide Fox News survey released Wednesday.
“I really see Mitt and I as co-front-runners,” said Gingrich, adding that the nomination battle is “going to come down to Mitt and me.”
“The one consistency is that Mitt has a hard time getting over 24 or 25 percent (in the polls),” he added. “Everyone was looking for the next ‘Not Mitt.’ ”
It’s nice to see that Gingrich has at least a small degree of self-awareness and knows that he’s merely the latest Not Mitt candidate. He could be the last man standing in that role, especially now that Rick Perry’s fundraising has dried up. If that’s the case, then the Iowa Caucuses will come down to a three-way race between Romney (who is barely contesting the state), Gingrich (who is merely a flash in the pan), and Ron Paul who is organizing like hell and has the ability to bring in money regardless of outcomes.
Now, I bring this up because all the other Not Mitt candidates need to win caucuses and primaries if they want to raise enough money to travel the country and pay for an actual national ground game. Also, the other candidates will be responsive to pressure to bow out and get behind the nominee. Ron Paul is going to stay in the race until the convention, piling up as many anti-war anti-fed delegates as he can. And that’s significant because it’s beginning to look like Perry and Cain and Huntsman and Bachmann are going to be knocked out of the race very early on. In a two-way race between Paul and Romney, the media will absolutely shred Paul to pieces. Think Howard Dean on steroids with rocket fuel. But that won’t prevent Paul from piling up a huge percentage of the delegates to the convention. And it will create a real philosophical rift in the party.
In fact, the rift might be so great that Romney will be doomed if he can’t somehow bring the Paulites into the fold. But how could he do that?
The most obvious problem would be the Republican Platform. The Platform is created at the convention. While it’s a non-binding and largely irrelevant document, it can become an ideological Fourth of July, with fireworks distracting from the nominee and the announcement of his running-mate. Having an impact on the Platform is largely what the whole Paul campaign is about. It’s a way to slowly change the GOP from within.
Ron Paul is not going to win the nomination. He’s 76 years-old. He will be opposed by every lever of power in the country, including the military, the media, Wall Street, and 95% of elected Republican officeholders. Ron Paul won’t be the nominee, but he might come in second place. It’s pretty close to a safe bet that he’ll have the second most delegates at the convention. If only there were someone more substantial than Gingrich to throw into the mix, we might get that cherished hope, a brokered convention (with Ron Paul holding aces).