Now that the Republican primary and caucus schedule is set it is at least theoretically possible to make some predictions about how the process will unfold. I have to confess, though, that I’ve never been so flummoxed by a political process in my life. There is a certain basic level on which I just can’t understand the Republican mind, and that’s humbling when it comes time to make predictions about how Republican base voters will behave. Nonetheless, the calendar is one of the most important elements of any nominating contest, and the rules matter, too.
The basic contours of the race have come into view. Romney is incredibly weak, but no one can confidentially predict that anyone other than Romney will win the nomination. The polls in Iowa are chaotic, but they currently show a three-way race between Gingrich, Romney, and Cain, with Ron Paul lurking just behind the pack. I’m willing to predict that Cain is on a slow, fatal slide. He doesn’t have the money or organization to work without media adoration, and his media adoration has evaporated. So, I believe that by the time we get to the Iowa Caucuses on January 3rd, it will be a three-way race between Gingrich, Romney, and Paul. And Gingrich will have the least money and least organization. On the other hand, he is best positioned to scoop up the support from Perry, Santorum, Cain, and Bachmann. Romney can scoop up some Huntsman votes. Ron Paul will be focused on getting out his voters. I see only one wildcard here, and that is if Rick Perry can use his money to make a comeback. If both Cain and Gingrich fall on their face, Perry might be able to pick up the pieces. It’s easy to predict that Gingrich will self-immolate, but as of today I have to predict that he will consolidate the anti-Romney vote and win Iowa. I can easily see Ron Paul taking second place, but I have a hard time picturing Romney doing worse than third.
New Hampshire never likes to ratify Iowa’s choice. And I believe Romney is strong enough there, with independents allowed to vote, that he will win the Granite State in a walk. I think Ron Paul will finish a distant second place, and Gingrich will be badly weakened by a very distant third (or, perhaps, fourth).
By this time, several of the lesser candidates will have probably dropped out. This will strengthen and consolidate the anti-Romney vote. Yet, it will also be clear that neither Gingrich nor Paul are satisfying repositories for the anti-Romney vote. Will Perry still be alive and kicking to make a run at South Carolina and Florida? This is the point where Perry could start to collect some energy. All he really has to do is replace Gingrich as the preferred anti-Romney candidate. Even second place finishes would accomplish that.
The contest will then move to Nevada where Romney and Paul will dominate. And then it is on to caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota. Ron Paul will over-perform in most caucuses.
On February 28th, there will be primaries in Arizona and Michigan. I think this will be the date when the decision is made either to nominate Romney or to get bogged down in a drawn-out campaign that could result in a brokered convention. Romney grew up in Michigan. He father was the governor. If he can’t win in Michigan, he probably can’t waltz to the nomination. Arizona has a large Mormon population. If they reject Romney, he’s in big trouble. Personally, I think Romney will have a big day and be ready to clean up on Super Tuesday (March 6th).
Yet, I do not expect Ron Paul to drop out. And I think he can win several contests in a one-on-one matchup with Mitt Romney.
I predict Romney will win the nomination outright, but Paul will have the second-most delegates. And his presence in the race will cause enormous consternation and disruption to the Republican Party.
That’s what I am seeing right now.
