Now that the Republican primary and caucus schedule is set it is at least theoretically possible to make some predictions about how the process will unfold. I have to confess, though, that I’ve never been so flummoxed by a political process in my life. There is a certain basic level on which I just can’t understand the Republican mind, and that’s humbling when it comes time to make predictions about how Republican base voters will behave. Nonetheless, the calendar is one of the most important elements of any nominating contest, and the rules matter, too.
The basic contours of the race have come into view. Romney is incredibly weak, but no one can confidentially predict that anyone other than Romney will win the nomination. The polls in Iowa are chaotic, but they currently show a three-way race between Gingrich, Romney, and Cain, with Ron Paul lurking just behind the pack. I’m willing to predict that Cain is on a slow, fatal slide. He doesn’t have the money or organization to work without media adoration, and his media adoration has evaporated. So, I believe that by the time we get to the Iowa Caucuses on January 3rd, it will be a three-way race between Gingrich, Romney, and Paul. And Gingrich will have the least money and least organization. On the other hand, he is best positioned to scoop up the support from Perry, Santorum, Cain, and Bachmann. Romney can scoop up some Huntsman votes. Ron Paul will be focused on getting out his voters. I see only one wildcard here, and that is if Rick Perry can use his money to make a comeback. If both Cain and Gingrich fall on their face, Perry might be able to pick up the pieces. It’s easy to predict that Gingrich will self-immolate, but as of today I have to predict that he will consolidate the anti-Romney vote and win Iowa. I can easily see Ron Paul taking second place, but I have a hard time picturing Romney doing worse than third.
New Hampshire never likes to ratify Iowa’s choice. And I believe Romney is strong enough there, with independents allowed to vote, that he will win the Granite State in a walk. I think Ron Paul will finish a distant second place, and Gingrich will be badly weakened by a very distant third (or, perhaps, fourth).
By this time, several of the lesser candidates will have probably dropped out. This will strengthen and consolidate the anti-Romney vote. Yet, it will also be clear that neither Gingrich nor Paul are satisfying repositories for the anti-Romney vote. Will Perry still be alive and kicking to make a run at South Carolina and Florida? This is the point where Perry could start to collect some energy. All he really has to do is replace Gingrich as the preferred anti-Romney candidate. Even second place finishes would accomplish that.
The contest will then move to Nevada where Romney and Paul will dominate. And then it is on to caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota. Ron Paul will over-perform in most caucuses.
On February 28th, there will be primaries in Arizona and Michigan. I think this will be the date when the decision is made either to nominate Romney or to get bogged down in a drawn-out campaign that could result in a brokered convention. Romney grew up in Michigan. He father was the governor. If he can’t win in Michigan, he probably can’t waltz to the nomination. Arizona has a large Mormon population. If they reject Romney, he’s in big trouble. Personally, I think Romney will have a big day and be ready to clean up on Super Tuesday (March 6th).
Yet, I do not expect Ron Paul to drop out. And I think he can win several contests in a one-on-one matchup with Mitt Romney.
I predict Romney will win the nomination outright, but Paul will have the second-most delegates. And his presence in the race will cause enormous consternation and disruption to the Republican Party.
That’s what I am seeing right now.
Do you think Romney is an incredibly weak candidate against Obama or just the rest of the Republican field?
It’s interesting that Republicans will have nominated candidates less preferred by hardcore conservatives for two elections in a row.
Romney is a pretty weak candidate, period. But he is by far the strongest candidate the Republicans have to go after the White House.
Read recently that conservative Christians are holding “high-level meetings” to derail Romney in Iowa and NH. I’m not sure what their options are – Cain is self-destructing and it’s only a matter of time for Gingrich. In fact, it might have been last night when he came out in favor of a path to legalization.
The other problem with both Cain and Gingrich is zero organization. They got nothing. I think that if both these guys were honest, they’d tell us that they’re every bit as surprised as we are that they are at the top of the polls. I’m pretty sure that neither of them got in the race to become president.
I just don’t see conservative Christians getting behind any of the top three in the GOP primary. That doesn’t mean they can’t win the nomination, but the general is a stretch without them. I’m keeping my eye on Perry.
A pre-caucus caucus to decide which Not Mitt Romney will be the one to line up behind. Heh. But it makes sense to me. I wonder why they didn’t do it earlier.
Are you factoring in the changes the GOP made as to how they’re going to award delegates this cycle? All races before April will award delegates proportionately, with the first winner-take-all races on April 3rd. If Romney stays locked at 25-30%, and Paul retains 10-15%, this could go anywhere, including all the way to the convention.
It’s possible that an early run of first-place finishes will give Romney the momentum to take 35-40% in some races around Super Tuesday (as other candidates decide to stop playing), but I wouldn’t make book on the guy who’s been running for six years suddenly becoming more popular with the electorate that’s solidly rejected him this whole time.
I think it’s just as likely that the also-rans who aren’t close with Romney (read: all of them) or with the revealed anti-Romney will remain on as many ballots as possible for as long as possible, banking on a chance to use their portion of delegates to sway the nomination, lock up a spot on the ticket, or secure a promise for a cabinet post. The “leverage game” should be fascinating this cycle.
Self-correction: the statewide delegates are being awarded proportionately. Delegates awarded by congressional district may remain winner-take-all on a district-by-district basis. Still going to be a substantial change from 2008, however.
I’ve determined that the change is overhyped. It won’t be like the Democratic contest where Obama could lose a state and still get the most delegates out of it (e.g., New Hampshire). A second place finish will be worth considerably less in the Republican primaries. The main importance of the proportionality of the ear lie contests is that Ron Paul will start gathering delegates for the convention. And when it is just Paul and Romney still standing, he will probably even win a few states. I don’t think he can hold Romney under 50%, but he can create all kinds of problems for him both on the campaign and at the convention (with the platform, for example).
The VP slot is maybe even more unfathomable. Who is the jesus-humper that Romney will ultimately have to go with? I mean, it’s going to have to be someone deep, deep, deep in the evangelical movement in order to prevent fullscale mutiny.
The governor from Virginia? Sam Brownback? Somebody from the House? Jim DeMint?
Whoever it is, the Law of Wingnut Entropy virtually demands that it be someone who will make Palin look statesmanlike. Preferably someone with no governing or administrative experience at all. Like Jim Dobson, say, only someone with less in the way of actual accomplishments.
Thune popped up yesterday. Good conservative creds. Looks the part. Senate experience.
Haley Barber has a shot, bringing along the south. Deficit: another governor.
I think Gingrich is stronger than most on the left think. What killed Bachmann, Perry, and Cain was incredible and undeniable stupidity. Also, Palin. The vaccine remarks. I can’t remember the third thing. We just fought a war supporting the rebels in Libya, correct? You won’t hear that sort of thing from Gingrich. The only reasons I think he didn’t get traction till now are: 1) Repubs like to fancy themselves anti-establishment, and there is no way to pretend Gingrich is this. 2) He’s a smart-ass with intellectual airs and much of the base hates that. Neither of those will be fatal to an anti-Romney who looks like he might pull it off. Money comes with front runner status, and organization comes with money.
Gingrich may be “stronger than most on the left think”…but that’s not saying much.
After watching Bill Clinton utterly eviscerate (metaphorically speaking of course) Gingrich back in the 1990s—a time when Gingrich was the 2nd most powerful elected official in the country (and was still on his 2nd wife and 1st religion)—I, for one, think Gingrich is due to begin self-immolation (again, metaphorically speaking) any day now. (That’s assuming he didn’t already start with his remarks about immigration at the last debate.)
I agree, but then look at Perry and Cain.
“Yet, it will also be clear that neither Gingrich nor Paul are satisfying repositories for the anti-Romney vote.”
On my first read, I saw this as “satisfying suppositories”. I guess either way works, eh?
The generic Rep voter seems so slow to the mark to understand their candidates, much less the process itself it’s more like a game of barroom darts to them and so I always wonder if their lust to replace Obama is turning into a nevermind.
Fox & Limbaugh have got to be deciding where they want to lead. A Fox position of strength and money is more complicated than allowing Paul to split the vote.