Based on the reporting in this Yahoo News piece, Mitt Romney hasn’t been doing any legwork whatsoever in South Carolina. He has one office and three paid staffers working in the state. It makes me wonder what the hell he is doing with his money advantage. He traveled to South Carolina last Friday to receive the endorsement of the governor, but his overall level of endorsements in the Palmetto State has plummeted in comparison to four years ago:
The most telling sign of the uphill battle Romney faces in South Carolina is the skepticism he faces among many leading Republicans who backed his bid four years ago. At this point in the 2008 campaign, Romney had announced more than 100 endorsements among key public officials, political operatives and fundraisers in the state. By comparison, he has announced fewer than 10 endorsements in the state, including [Gov. Nikki] Haley’s, this year. And many of his key staffers from 2008 remain neutral.
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich, who truly has no money to speak of, has nearly four times as many paid staffers in South Carolina.
Making predictions is a bit of fool’s game at this point. I mean, how better to make myself look stupid than to make some really bad predictions about what will happen in Iowa? What we’re seeing is a late surge from Ron Paul, who everyone recognizes has the premier ground game in the Hawkeye State. I’m inclined to go ahead and predict that he will do no worse than second place. Gingrich seems to be slipping and could fall out of the top three. Romney seems to be moving around in his usual range of 20-25%, but some polls show him as low as eighteen percent. And Rick Santorum is picking up some steam and could leave Hunstman and Bachmann in his dust. Rick Perry is a wildcard. He’s polling in the low double digits, and he could move up to third or drop down to sixth, or finish anywhere in between.
I’m a believer in late momentum, and on that score it appears that Paul and Santorum are the ones set to exceed expectations, while Gingrich and Bachmann are set to disappoint. Right now, I expect the following order in Iowa: 1. Ron Paul 2. Mitt Romney 3. Newt Gingrich 4. Rick Santorum 5. Rick Perry 6. Michele Bachmann 7. Jon Huntsman.
Even small news events can reshuffle the deck, and I expect plenty of news events, but this is my prediction as of tonight. So, what would this result do in New Hampshire?
Most obviously, it would kill all hope for Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry to do well there. It would also cause some erosion in Jon Huntman’s position, which has been on the uptick lately. Newt Gingrich would struggle to explain his collapse. Rick Santorum might get some new looks. And Ron Paul would create a full-blown identity crisis for the Grand Old Party.
The most compelling story lines would be:
1. Can Ron Paul be stopped in New Hampshire?
2. Will Gingrich’s twenty-point leads in South Carolina and Florida disappear if he can’t finish in the top two?
3. Will Jon Huntsman or Rick Santorum win third place?
4. Will Rick Perry drop out?
The answers, I suspect, will be ‘Yes,’ Yes,’ ‘Jon Huntsman,’ and ‘no.’
When things move to South Carolina, we should be dealing with a situation where the first two contests ended with Paul-Romney-Gingrich and Romney-Paul-Gingrich. Michele Bachmann will have dropped out, bolstering Santorum. And Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman will need breakthroughs to keep their campaigns alive.
Santorum’s Catholic brand of social conservatism in not as good a fit for South Carolina as Rick Perry’s, but Santorum will have more momentum and is a better campaigner. Romney and Paul are terrible fits for South Carolina, each for their own unique reasons. Romney hasn’t done the legwork and his Mormon faith and liberal past are suspect. Ron Paul has nothing in common with South Carolina’s martial spirit. I think Newt Gingrich has a real chance to win there and recover his mojo. If he does, he should win Florida as well. But the Nevada caucuses will be a big question mark. They could go to Romney based on the heavy Mormon presence there, or they could go to Ron Paul based on his strengths in caucus states and the appeal of his libertarian message in the Old West. If things go as I have described, with Romney only winning in New Hampshire, and losing in South Carolina and Florida, I think he will be desperate to win in Nevada. If he doesn’t, we could finish the first five contests with Ron Paul having won in Iowa and Nevada, Newt Gingrich having won in South Carolina and Florida, and Romney having won only in New Hampshire.
That’s kind of how I see things going right now. If I’m right, it should be a three-man race from that point on. Of course, Romney, Gingrich, and Paul are all incredibly divisive personalities within the Republican Party. None of them are even as broadly acceptable as John McCain, let alone Bob Dole. What I am seeing in my crystal ball is kind of a train wreck.
