It took me a long time to realize it because I like him and because he gives every appearance of being extremely intelligent, but I now know that Robert Reich just isn’t that smart. He is predicting that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden will switch places. He’s not merely advocating this.
My political prediction for 2012 (based on absolutely no inside information): Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden swap places. Biden becomes Secretary of State — a position he’s apparently coveted for years. And Hillary Clinton, Vice President.
So the Democratic ticket for 2012 is Obama-Clinton.
The last president to willingly switch vice-presidents was Franklin Roosevelt, who did it twice. But Joe Biden is no Henry Wallace, nor is he under indictment like Spiro Agnew. So, why does Reich think Obama will demote the vice-president?
Why do I say this? Because Obama needs to stir the passions and enthusiasms of a Democratic base that’s been disillusioned with his cave-ins to regressive Republicans. Hillary Clinton on the ticket can do that.
I think we need to define the word “needs” a little more precisely. Do any of you see any indicators that the president is about to lose his reelection bid? Have you seen any recent, reputable polls that show him losing to any of the clowns running for the Republican nomination? There appears to be no current ‘need’ for riling up the base. Maybe Reich believes such a need will arise. The future is uncertain, and it’s better to have a motivated base than a “disillusioned” one. Of course, Robert Reich doesn’t seem to know who constitutes the Democratic base. He seems to think its made up of Jane Hamsher, Matt Stoller, Arianna Huffington, Cornel West. and the people Reich dines with on weekends. Would those malcontents be excited by Hillary Clinton on the ticket? Do malcontents get excited?
Obama’s real base is made up of the people who helped him beat Hillary Clinton, presumably (at least, in part) because there was something about Clintonism and DLC politics that they didn’t like. It was made up of students, people of color, and progressives of all stripes who believed we could win a different way. Most of them are disillusioned about some elements of Obama’s presidency, and who can’t be disillusioned about the state of Congress? But they still support the president and still oppose everything coming from the other side. The real and lasting disillusionment would be if Obama set up Clinton to be his heir-apparent. That would mean that eight years of Obama couldn’t shift the party (or the country) to the left one iota.
That would demoralize Obama’s base. Of course, putting Clinton on the ticket would create excitement in other quarters of the Democratic Party, and it could wind up a wash. Changing tickets would be a sign of weakness and a bit of a panic move, but it might work out in the end. I’m not arguing that an Obama-Clinton ticket could not do better than an Obama-Biden one. I think it’s possible.
But, it won’t happen, it wouldn’t excite Obama’s base, it isn’t needed, and it’s far from certain that it wouldn’t backfire. So, on any level you might want to judge it, Robert Reich’s essay is the product of a startlingly dumb man.