As I noted last night, the knives have come out for Mitt Romney. What this tells me is that tonight’s result is unlikely to matter much. Romney will gain almost nothing from winning because most Republicans are nowhere near resigned to him being the nominee, and his opponents are ramping up their criticism in a way that is doing real damage to his general election prospects. Republicans are attacking vulture capitalism. Who would have predicted?
If Romney wins by twenty or thirty points, he’ll certainly make a statement, but he’ll still face on all-out onslaught in South Carolina. If Romney wins narrowly, it will be treated as a defeat. I don’t see much of a difference either way. If he can win South Carolina, he’ll probably be able to silence his critics in the GOP. If he loses in South Carolina, he’ll have to rely on his money advantage to win in Florida, but with Super PACs, there is no guarantee that his opponents will be broke. One rich guy could finance Gingrich’s Florida campaign, just as one rich guy is funding his South Carolina campaign.
Romney has been making some gaffes recently. I think he’s going to have a less than spectacular finish tonight, and he may not be able to weather the storm in South Carolina. I’ve frequently felt like Romney might run the table and win every contest. Yet, when they finally certify the results in Iowa, I think Santorum might be the winner there. And there’s really no sign that the GOP is closing ranks behind him. I suppose this contest could become interesting, although the chances of that are still low.