This is pretty astute.
“I’m thinking of a Republican primary. It starts with a candidate (John McCain/Mitt Romney) who ran once before, came in second place, and won over the party’s elite class without winning over its base. Other candidates, understandably unwilling to accept this, line up: An under-funded social conservative (Mike Huckabee/Rick Santorum), an elder statesman who’s walked to the altar three times (Rudy Giuliani/Newt Gingrich), a libertarian who wants to bring back the gold standard (Ron Paul/Ron Paul). The conservative base is displeased. In the year before the primary, it pines for a perfect candidate. At the end of summer, on (September 5/August 13), it gets him: (Fred Thompson/Rick Perry). The dream candidate immediately rises to the top of national polls, but collapses after lazy, distaff debate performances… The Republican base looks at the wreckage and shudders. It can never allow this to happen ever again.”
The rest of it continues with the same eerie sense of déjà vu. Which means that Mitt Romney will be looking for a running mate that can create the same kind of excitement as Sarah Palin without all the downsides.
He’ll want someone who is adored by the Tea Party but not someone with barely any experience. He’ll want someone charismatic but not with a checkered ethical past. Both of those considerations speak for and against Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
The problem with trying to appeal to the Tea Party is that anyone with much experience is going to have done things the Tea Party hates, like voting for TARP or Medicare Part D.
Another thing to consider is that McCain still lost even if Palin gave him a brief lead in the polls. Romney may feel the same need to shore up his base, but why would he want to repeat a strategy that didn’t work? Also, perhaps his primary weakness isn’t the same as John McCain’s. Perhaps he’s a bit of a lightweight in foreign affairs. He’s not a complete novice like George W. Bush, but he also lacks Bush’s swagger or McCain’s temper. He seems a bit soft, even when he’s talking tough. Maybe Romney’s biggest weakness is that he projects weakness. Should his running mate be a veteran with a rough and gruff exterior? Or would that only serve to highlight Romney’s lack of machismo?
Maybe Romney’s greatest weakness is that he’s the son of a governor who made a fortune as a vulture capitalist. Should he pick someone who can balance that out? Someone with a humble upbringing who succeeded against all the odds. Someone like a Mike Huckabee?
I don’t know how Romney will go, but he can’t do worse than Palin. Can he?