My back of the napkin calculations indicate that Newt Gingrich stands to increase his performance in South Carolina by less than two percentage points as a result of Rick Perry dropping out and endorsing him. Perry supporters prefer Gingrich to Romney by a 2:1 ratio, but he only had the support of 4% of South Carolina’s Republican voters. Even if all of Perry’s votes went to just Gingrich and Romney, Gingrich would only pick up an additional 1.4% of the vote. But, of course, some percentage will move to Santorum and Paul, and others may move to Colbert/Cain.
In other words, Perry’s move could be important if South Carolina turns out to be as close as Iowa, but he won’t confer too much of a boost to Gingrich.
Rick Perry’s campaign was so sad that I feel like it would be cruel to write a post-mortem about it. He was the worst candidate of his stature that I have ever seen. Even Sarah Palin was considerably better.
Though, in fairness, he was able to change the national punchline from “All of them, Katie” to “Oops.”
After the Turkey comment, it makes me wonder if Gingrich offered Perry the Secretary of State job in exchange for his endorsement.
I understand that doesn’t make any sense, until you remember that Republican policy is to make government as inept and hated as possible. And from that standpoint, I ask who is more qualified?
I hate to rain on the parade, but doesn’t this just show how pathetic some state Democratic parties are? Perry was never ready for prime time, yet Texas Democrats never laid a glove on him. grrr!!
He must play much, much better in Texas. Sure hard to imagine, though.
And I know that Perry avoided debating his opponents like the plague. Now we know why. That just shows how weak Perry really was.
Rick Perry’s never won a majority in 2006. Texas is dumb. They have like 1-2 independents take 10-20% of the vote, and then whoever has the most wins.
And second, 2010? If it was any other year — 2012, for example — we’d have had a good shot. You don’t get much better than Bill White in Texas Dems. He was perfect. The Jack Conway of Texas.
what about the impact of the interview with Newt’s second wife from ABC available this evening?
“He was the worst candidate of his stature that I have ever seen.”
Yeah, just like Dubya, but without the razor-sharp intellect.
Zombie Will Rogers will miss Perry most sorely.
OT:
I haven’t seen this asked yet, but W-T-F did Romney think he was gonna do in 2008, if he had won the GOP Nomination? did his arrogant ass really think he wasn’t gonna have to release his tax returns?
and, he’s been running since 2007…this mofo is actually arrogant enough not to have been planning for this situation?
Romney’s finances are between him and his Lord.
The boost Gingrich gets from Perry’s small share of the vote may indeed be tiny, but it considerably enhances his chances of becoming the last conservative NMR (Not Mitt) candidate standing. South Carolina Conservatives who don’t want Romney to win have to decide between Gingrich and Santorum and right now Gingrich looks the best tactical bet even if many actually prefer Santorum.
The gap between Gingrich and Romney is closing all the time, so Gingrich has whatever late momentum there is, and Perry’s withdrawal and endorsement could add considerably to that.