Republicans Play Zero-Dimensional Chess

ABC News:

Return of the Culture Wars: Can Mitt Romney Win Conservative Backing?

The resurgence of social and cultural issues in voters’ minds poses new challenges for GOP presidential front-runner Mitt Romney as he reels from surprising losses Tuesday to conservative favorite Rick Santorum.

The economy remains the No. 1 issue of concern for a majority of Americans. But the recent hoopla surrounding the Obama administration’s support of contraceptives, the court ruling against California’s same-sex marriage ban and heated debate about abortion access has created a perfect storm that has pushed these seemingly dormant issues to the surface….

Romney, meanwhile, has struggled to convince the Republican base of his conservative credentials. Most recently, he came under fire for allowing “abortion pills” as governor of Massachusetts. In 2005, Romney vetoed a law that required all Massachusetts hospitals, including those owned by religious groups, to provide emergency contraception to rape victims, but it was overridden by the state legislature….

First of all, I question the premise that there’s been a “resurgence” of these issues “in voters’ minds” — in Republican voters’ minds, maybe, but if so, that’s only because the Republican attack machine forced these issues onto the agenda by making lots of noise about them (contraception) or stirring up trouble where it didn’t exist (Planned Parenthood).

And what a genius thing to do: The Republicans had Romney, who a mere month ago was viewed by a significant majority of Republicans as an acceptable nominee and who at the same time was showing up in polls of the overall population as the most electable running against Obama, and — instead of continuing to stress arguments that played to his strengths — decided to gin up culture-war controversies in a way that inspires GOP base voters to reject Romney and vote for much more beatable candidates, like Santorum.

Republican message-mongers did this because they can’t walk away from anything that seems like a promising wedge issue — even if, as in this case, the short-term Democrat-bashing gain comes with a potential serious loss at the ballot box for their party in November.

I actually think, in the short term, the righties are going to win the contraception war — they’ve now made so much noise about this that low-information voters probably think Obama did something wrong, even though they can’t exactly tell you what it is. He’ll have to compromise or accept some GOP restraint. But meanwhile the right has stirred up the culture warriors just when they’re ready to rally around an extremely weak presidential candidate. Good one, GOP.

(X-posted at No More Mister Nice Blog.)

14 Comments

DaveW on February 9, 2012 at 5:20 pm

I don’t see them winning the contraception war — not even close. We’re talking birth control here, not abortion. Even Catholics are on Obama’s side on this, according to the polls.

Steve M. on February 9, 2012 at 5:38 pm

Democrats in Congress are already abandoning Obama. The ‘pubs are winning already.

I’ve seen too many of these ginned-up faux outrages not to know how they end. When Republicans flood the zone the way they have on this one, they always win.
- wwwanderer on February 9, 2012 at 6:37 pm
  
  Not this time.
  
  The Bishops’s spokesman issued their “compromise” earlier today. They are demanding that the contraceptive provision be stripped from the ACA – in case any catholic businessperson be possibly inconvenienced.
  http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-stump/100577/birth-control-obama-saved-the-taco-bell
  
  The White House is “all talk, no action” on moving toward compromise, said Anthony Picarello, general counsel for the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. “There has been a lot of talk in the last couple days about compromise, but it sounds to us like a way to turn down the heat, to placate people without doing anything in particular,” Picarello said. “We’re not going to do anything until this is fixed.”
  
  That means removing the provision from the health care law altogether, he said, not simply changing it for Catholic employers and their insurers. He cited the problem that would create for “good Catholic business people who can’t in good conscience cooperate with this.”
  
  “If I quit this job and opened a Taco Bell, I’d be covered by the mandate,” Picarello said.
  - Steve M. on February 9, 2012 at 7:07 pm
    
    Why wouldn’t that pass? Poll numbers? Sure, moderates and liberals favor contraceptive coverage, and that adds up to a majority, but wingnuts VIRULENTLY oppose it (now they do, that is; a week ago, they weren’t even thinking about this issue). Add that to the GOP’s ability to persuade MSM centrist journalists (especially Catholics like Chris Matthews) that this is horrifying people at the Applebee’s salad bar, throw in massive Democratic cowardice in Congress, and it’s GOP victory time again.
    - wwwanderer on February 9, 2012 at 7:41 pm
      
      No.
      
      Rmoney’s gonna get pushed further right in this nontroversy. Good politics for the general election, no matter who the nominee is.
      
      Any bill the R-House sends to the Senate that Obama hasn’t sanctioned is DOA.
      
      And…there’s this.
    - Errol on February 9, 2012 at 10:18 pm
      
      so Catholic bishops don’t want women Catholics to use birth control.But they do, the bishops aren’t able to prevent women from using birth control so they want Obama to help them make it difficult for women to use birth control? and you think Obama will sign on to that?
- Phil Perspective on February 9, 2012 at 7:35 pm
  
  Democrats in Congress are already abandoning Obama.
  
  Who? Any women? NO!!!!!!!!!! Just three, that I know if, old white men!!! And one of them is a DINO(Manchin).
  - wwwanderer on February 9, 2012 at 8:30 pm
    
    Two – Lipinski!
- Errol on February 9, 2012 at 10:14 pm
  
  Obama is going to abandon women’s health; the same week as the Komen foundation lost much $$ from donors? I don’t think so

seabe on February 9, 2012 at 5:36 pm

Only one group doesn’t support this by a majority, and that’s the Evangelicals (they’re at 38%). Win-win for the WH, long-term and short-term. You’ve a weird pessimism, Steve. I like it anyway because it takes a pessimistic view in a way that no one else thinks about it.

Veritas78 on February 9, 2012 at 5:58 pm

I disagree — I think Obama did this on purpose.

First, it educates the public about what’s in ObamaCare: “Free contraception? Great! I didn’t know I was gonna get that!”

Second, the Republicans look bad for taking away something everyone wants.

We’ll see this over and over. He’s got their number. Plus, he chose to do it now to tie Romney, Santorum, and Gingerich in knots as they flail around trying to figure out why they don’t all agree. And what a nice way to smack the two wingnut Catholics running against his eventual opponent. Absolutely brilliant.

Shaun Appleby on February 9, 2012 at 6:54 pm

On past performance. The numbers are certainly on Obama’s side. It is already having an impact on poor Romney, serendipitously wedged between his humiliating loss to Santorum and feeding the chooks at CPAC. And it seems an incredibly stupid move by establishment Republicans who are at once trying to sabotage Santorum but can’t resist, as Steve notes, any wedge issue “squirrels.” All good stuff.

So we better actually win it then, eh?

Gaius Sempronius Gracchus on February 10, 2012 at 6:27 am

The Republicans’ angry defense of the Catholic bishops’ authoritarian claim to the final say on their employees’ rights is a highly educational moment.

The present battle will help teach America that our frustrated clergy and their political allies, far from objecting only to gay marriage and abortion, want to roll back the sexual revolution all the way to its very beginnings.

Their real enemy, here, is the Griswold decision and the constitutional right to privacy invented by mid-20th Century liberal judges to force our blue-nosed clergy out of America’s bedrooms.

Given that solid majorities of all Americans and even larger majorities of Catholics support those hard won victories over the constant and bitter opposition of the churches, so clear a reminder of the radical nature and far-reaching extent of the clericalist agenda can only help Democrats and hurt Republicans.

Paul W on February 10, 2012 at 12:18 pm

I really enjoyed this post, I think it is a good analysis of how Republicans have ended up with the horrible strategies they have today.

DaveW on February 9, 2012 at 5:20 pm

I don’t see them winning the contraception war — not even close. We’re talking birth control here, not abortion. Even Catholics are on Obama’s side on this, according to the polls.
- Steve M. on February 9, 2012 at 5:38 pm
  
  Democrats in Congress are already abandoning Obama. The ‘pubs are winning already.
  
  I’ve seen too many of these ginned-up faux outrages not to know how they end. When Republicans flood the zone the way they have on this one, they always win.
  - wwwanderer on February 9, 2012 at 6:37 pm
    
    Not this time.
    
    The Bishops’s spokesman issued their “compromise” earlier today. They are demanding that the contraceptive provision be stripped from the ACA – in case any catholic businessperson be possibly inconvenienced.
    http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-stump/100577/birth-control-obama-saved-the-taco-bell
    
    The White House is “all talk, no action” on moving toward compromise, said Anthony Picarello, general counsel for the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. “There has been a lot of talk in the last couple days about compromise, but it sounds to us like a way to turn down the heat, to placate people without doing anything in particular,” Picarello said. “We’re not going to do anything until this is fixed.”
    
    That means removing the provision from the health care law altogether, he said, not simply changing it for Catholic employers and their insurers. He cited the problem that would create for “good Catholic business people who can’t in good conscience cooperate with this.”
    
    “If I quit this job and opened a Taco Bell, I’d be covered by the mandate,” Picarello said.
    - Steve M. on February 9, 2012 at 7:07 pm
      
      Why wouldn’t that pass? Poll numbers? Sure, moderates and liberals favor contraceptive coverage, and that adds up to a majority, but wingnuts VIRULENTLY oppose it (now they do, that is; a week ago, they weren’t even thinking about this issue). Add that to the GOP’s ability to persuade MSM centrist journalists (especially Catholics like Chris Matthews) that this is horrifying people at the Applebee’s salad bar, throw in massive Democratic cowardice in Congress, and it’s GOP victory time again.
      - wwwanderer on February 9, 2012 at 7:41 pm
        
        No.
        
        Rmoney’s gonna get pushed further right in this nontroversy. Good politics for the general election, no matter who the nominee is.
        
        Any bill the R-House sends to the Senate that Obama hasn’t sanctioned is DOA.
        
        And…there’s this.
      - Errol on February 9, 2012 at 10:18 pm
        
        so Catholic bishops don’t want women Catholics to use birth control.But they do, the bishops aren’t able to prevent women from using birth control so they want Obama to help them make it difficult for women to use birth control? and you think Obama will sign on to that?
  - Phil Perspective on February 9, 2012 at 7:35 pm
    
    Democrats in Congress are already abandoning Obama.
    
    Who? Any women? NO!!!!!!!!!! Just three, that I know if, old white men!!! And one of them is a DINO(Manchin).
    - wwwanderer on February 9, 2012 at 8:30 pm
      
      Two – Lipinski!
  - Errol on February 9, 2012 at 10:14 pm
    
    Obama is going to abandon women’s health; the same week as the Komen foundation lost much $$ from donors? I don’t think so
seabe on February 9, 2012 at 5:36 pm

Only one group doesn’t support this by a majority, and that’s the Evangelicals (they’re at 38%). Win-win for the WH, long-term and short-term. You’ve a weird pessimism, Steve. I like it anyway because it takes a pessimistic view in a way that no one else thinks about it.
Veritas78 on February 9, 2012 at 5:58 pm

I disagree — I think Obama did this on purpose.

First, it educates the public about what’s in ObamaCare: “Free contraception? Great! I didn’t know I was gonna get that!”

Second, the Republicans look bad for taking away something everyone wants.

We’ll see this over and over. He’s got their number. Plus, he chose to do it now to tie Romney, Santorum, and Gingerich in knots as they flail around trying to figure out why they don’t all agree. And what a nice way to smack the two wingnut Catholics running against his eventual opponent. Absolutely brilliant.
- Shaun Appleby on February 9, 2012 at 6:54 pm
  
  On past performance. The numbers are certainly on Obama’s side. It is already having an impact on poor Romney, serendipitously wedged between his humiliating loss to Santorum and feeding the chooks at CPAC. And it seems an incredibly stupid move by establishment Republicans who are at once trying to sabotage Santorum but can’t resist, as Steve notes, any wedge issue “squirrels.” All good stuff.
  
  So we better actually win it then, eh?
Gaius Sempronius Gracchus on February 10, 2012 at 6:27 am

The Republicans’ angry defense of the Catholic bishops’ authoritarian claim to the final say on their employees’ rights is a highly educational moment.

The present battle will help teach America that our frustrated clergy and their political allies, far from objecting only to gay marriage and abortion, want to roll back the sexual revolution all the way to its very beginnings.

Their real enemy, here, is the Griswold decision and the constitutional right to privacy invented by mid-20th Century liberal judges to force our blue-nosed clergy out of America’s bedrooms.

Given that solid majorities of all Americans and even larger majorities of Catholics support those hard won victories over the constant and bitter opposition of the churches, so clear a reminder of the radical nature and far-reaching extent of the clericalist agenda can only help Democrats and hurt Republicans.
Paul W on February 10, 2012 at 12:18 pm

I really enjoyed this post, I think it is a good analysis of how Republicans have ended up with the horrible strategies they have today.

Republicans Play Zero-Dimensional Chess

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Steve M.

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