With about half the vote counted in Michigan it is still technically too close to call, but I’m going to predict that Romney pulls it out. I see Nate Silver is hedging a bit, but I think he knows already that Romney did well enough in his strongholds in the Detroit suburbs and held up well enough in Grand Rapids to carry himself over the finish line with a five or six percentage points margin. I think the delegates will be split quite evenly, with Santorum potentially winning more congressional districts. Romney appears to have saved himself from an immediate crisis, but I predict his campaign will reach a critical state one week from today when it becomes clear that he cannot win the nomination anytime soon, nor can he win in the South or anywhere (other than Michigan) in the Midwest.
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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Santorum’s speech was weird, and not only because of use of the words “crisp” “stiff” and “bottom up.”
You must really, really love politics to voluntarily watch a Santorum loser speech…
Or any Republican public event, for that matter. I can’t stand to listen to any of them in any context for even ten seconds these days. Won’t put myself through it.
Shouldn’t you wait to see what Romneybot’s SuperPAC money bombs do to Santorum in Ohio before making such a proclamation? He seems to gear himself up for the big states (FL before, MI tonight) while doing jackshit in caucuses and smaller primaries elsewhere where he doesn’t have his finger on the scales (heavy Mormon turnout out west, New England).
He’s a horrific campaigner running an even worse campaign, but even if he doesn’t win the requisite number of delegates, I still don’t see how he isn’t well in the lead by convention hour.
Please define what you mean by ‘critical’. And you should give us your analysis of the Snowe retirement.
.
Super Tuesday (March 6th)
Alaska- Santorum
Georgia- Gingrich, Santorum, Romney
Idaho- toss up
Massachusetts- Romney
North Dakota- Santorum
Ohio- Santorum
Oklahoma- Probably Santorum, perhaps Gingrich
Tennessee- Probably Santorum, perhaps Gingrich
Vermont- Romney
Virginia- Romney
Romney will get a lot of delegates, but he’ll lose a lot, too. And then he’ll be facing contests in Mississippi, Alabama, Missouri, and Kansas where he will probably lose.
Romney’s #1 priority needs to be to win Ohio on Super Tuesday. That could put it away for him.
Is Ohio that much different than Michigan?
The trees aren’t quite right.
yes.
Michigan is a solidly blue state that has no part of the south and no part of Appalachia. And it isn’t dominated by any single metro area.
So I guess it’s a better state for Santorum?
I think you meant that Ohio isn’t dominated by one Metro area the way Detroit dominates MI. Similarly, no one industry dominates Ohio, and its economy, while tough, isn’t nearly as decimated as Michigan’s. It’s also more of a true swing state (though I’d call MI more of a lean blue, not solid blue. Illinois is a solid blue.)
As a percentage of population, the Appalachian part of Ohio is pretty small, though there’s a huge evangelical/wingnut center in SW OH (Cincinnati/Dayton). It should by any calculation be a riper state for Santorum, even without Romney having to battle the albatross of “let Detroit go bankrupt.”
Prior to last night, polls here in Ohio show Santorum with a 7-10 point lead. That is likely to be affected by last nights results, as almost half of those asked say they are open to switching their voting preference.
How can Ohio put it away for Romney? I don’t see it. The contests are for delegates. The last I checked MI results Romney secured 15 and Santorum 13, but there is one last CD that could go either way with its 2 delegates. Ohio assigns its delegates in a similar way. How is a grab for 2-4 more delegates putting away this contest?
Romney is already the delegate leader but he still has a firm ceiling for his popularity. Is the Ohio result really going to put a dent in that? I don’t think so.
One of Romney’s strengths on Super Tuesday is that he is the only candidate of the top 4 that is on all the ballots.
The big prizes on Super Tuesday are MA, VA, OH, and GA.
If Romney wins in Ohio, that means Santorum will have been shut-out in the Big 4. That will pretty much kill off Santorum’s case that he can win, even if Santorum pulls off victories in Tennessee and Oklahoma, and perhaps Alaska.
But if Santorum wins the biggest prize of all and Romney’s victories come only in his home state and in a state where Gingrich and Santorum were not on the ballot, the race will go on in a very competitive manner.
I do not believe that Santorum or Gingrich can win a majority of the delegates. But Romney can. If he loses Ohio, his chances are greatly diminished, in my opinion.
Romney will not win in Alabama or Mississippi. And if Santorum is still plausible, he will win Missouri. Kansas isn’t a strong state for Romney. It’s hard to see where Romney wins any of the immediate contests after Super Tuesday unless Santorum is substantially weakened first. A win for Ricky in Ohio will strengthen him.
So, in the big picture, Ohio isn’t about the delegates, it’s about fundraising and having an argument to take to your Super PAC funders.
Thanks for the response. I still can’t see it that way. I think all any of the top 3 candidates need to stay financed by the funders is to make a showing and continue to deny Romney a big lead in delegates.
All Santorum (and/or) Gingrich have to do is stay close enough to Romney to deny Romney a majority in any state but have at least 20% of the vote so they get some delegate goodies too. (Romney will only hit 50% in VA.) With Gingrich in the South and Santorum holding up, Ohio with likely have a delegate split similar to Michigan but with Santorum edging out Romney. Even if Romney pulls out a “win” in OH, it is only going to translate to a 2-3 delegate advantage and that is not enough to scare funders away from Santorum.
After Super Tuesday, the Repubs are only one third done (by delegate count). It is still early and no one among the top 4 is going to give up yet unless Newt somehow really bombs in the South.
So, your basic disagreement comes down to the fact that you don’t think Santorum can be knocked out or effectively knocked out.
I think he’ll give up when he doesn’t have enough money to play for air-fare.
Oh, and my immediate reaction to Snowe retirement is that her seat moves into lean-Dem territory, but I need to see which candidates emerge.
Current candidates already in the race are:
*on the Republican side, tea partier Scott D’Amboise (former Selectman from the town of Lisbon);
*on the Democratic side, state Sen. Cynthia Dill, state Rep. John Hinck, and former Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap.
The filing deadline is March 15.
US Reps. Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud are the two biggest names in potential additional candidates from the Democratic Party.
For the Republicans, term-limited state Sen. President (and former Snowe aide) Kevin Raye is currently running for Michaud’s House seat, but might switch to the Senate race.
(h/t: TPM)
Well, my thoughts yesterday on Booman being wrong in MI were born out as damn wrong. Why the hell can’t these jackasses ever perform as expected. Granny killing Dutch, Kennedy makes my sick, Obama is a snob, … how did this goober ever get elected to ANYTHING?
I think the 3% win for Romney will be seen as bigger than it really was. But the real question is how will this affect Ohio? Maybe the real question is Will this affect Ohio?
But since I haven’t been right about a damn thing this year, I’m not going to predict for the next week.
How fast is he going through cash? Make him spend it all in useless contests against palookas, I say.
Enjoy that Citizens United glow, Repukeliscum. The millions you are spending trashing each other and destroying the GOP brand is money not spent in the fall.
other news overshadowed by primary – Obama ok’s xl for OK to TX section. lots of poutrage out there but I’m laughing considering what happened in NE. Here’s an interesting link for those interested in NE and the impact of xl. (and notice who is exec dir of Bold Nebraska. her bio is as impressive as her husband Scott’s bio.
http://www.boldnebraska.org/jane-kleeb
Maybe I woke up dull this morning, but I have to confess that I have no idea what this sentence means:
Obama ok’s xl for OK to TX section
it’s about the XL pipeline – ok’d from Oklahoma to Texas