If the Republican nominating contest were truly over, would Rick Santorum be cruising towards a big victory in Louisiana this Saturday? The truth is that Mitt Romney hasn’t wrapped anything up, but the cable networks don’t think there is any more money to be made by covering the primaries. Howard Kurtz puts it this way:
Television, in short, has pretty much decided the race is over, Mitt Romney has won, the thing is boring everyone to death, and it’s time, at least for now, to move on. The campaign is occupying less front-page real estate in the major papers as well.
What happened?
The end of the debates is a major factor. They were produced by the networks and functioned as a kind of continuous reality show, from Rick Perry’s “oops” moment to Newt Gingrich beating up on John King. Now they’re history.
Romney’s delegate lead has also drained the contest of drama. At this point, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich can only stop him from reaching the magic 1,144, not win the nomination themselves. And while it’s possible we’re heading for a brokered convention in August, the chatter about that possibility is an insider’s conversation, fascinating mainly to the junkies.
It’s ironic that the media has decided the contest is over because it is no longer lucrative. The reality is a little different. Rick Santorum never expected to get so much traction and he didn’t plan for being competitive this late in the race. The Pennsylvania newspapers are mocking Santorum for his lack of preparation, reporting that even if he wins his home state next month that he will not receive the majority of its delegates. He had similar problems in Ohio and Illinois, and he wasn’t even on the ballot in Virginia.
These failings are making it highly likely that Romney will get the majority of the delegates even if he loses many of the remaining contests. But that doesn’t mean that Romney would win the nomination in a balanced fight.
The story of these primaries has been about how Romney could not persevere against joke candidates like Hermann Cain, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich. But the truth is that he couldn’t not persevere. He was the only one with the money and organization to compete in 50 states. Rick Perry might have given him a run for his money, but he turned out to be a complete simpleton. This hasn’t been a true contest; it’s been a dishonest show. From the falsely reported Romney win in Iowa to the gaming of the caucuses in Maine to the uncontested race in Virginia to the lack of delegates for Santorum in Ohio and Illinois, the people’s choices have not been tabulated correctly or honored.
And, in spite of all this rigging of the system, Romney still hasn’t wrapped this thing up mathematically. If the media wants something interesting to report, they should report on how the Republican establishment has been playing their base for fools with a fake reality show.
It seems to me there are a couple of issues here.
One is the stunning (to my mind) inability of any Republican candidate other than Romney (with the possible exception of Paul) to put together a decent campaign operation. Where have all the tough, savvy College Republican-trained campaign operatives gone?
A second is the role of the the TV networks and what you rightly describe as the “reality show” of the debates. Why did they stop sponsoring debates? Why didn’t the candidates (particularly the non-Romneys) put together their own debates?
A third is the seeming ineptitude of Republican state parties in running caucuses and primaries. Is it ineptitude, and if so why? Is it, as you suggest, that the fix is in, and if so how?
Anyone have any plausible theories/answers?
Have any of these problems with the tabulation worked against Romney?
To Koch-Fund think-tanks and special ops. Higher pay apparently.
Re: Debates.
No one will care if Romney isn’t involved, and Romney has stopped wanting to be involved in debates since it was a major source of fuck-ups for him except when Newty fucked up worse.
Mainstream Media Acknowledges Electoral Fix Process
by Arthur Gilroy
A little…fiercer…as is my wont.
Later…
Cap’n CrunchTime
Um, but isn’t that like saying, at approximately this point four years ago, “If the Democratic nominating contest were truly over, would Hillary Clinton be cruising towards a big victory in [insert name of state with large percentage of its land mass in Appalachia] this [day of the week]?” The contest really was over then — she just wouldn’t acknowledge it. Same here, I’d say.
Right. It’s supposed to be ironic. In the context of what comes later, it becomes clear that we’re watching a charade.
Bad habit — typing comments without finishing what I’m reading. I do that a lot.
A possibly naive question: Why doesn’t the GOP go back to the smoke-filled rooms for choosing a nominee? It’s more their style anyway.
Because this:
a) gives the illusion of a democratic process
b) allows them to organize people for the election
You know they didn’t?
What with the caucuses and conventions and beauty contests and primaries, who know what the heck the delegate count is right now.
Better said, fifty-three smoke filled rooms.
Also…smoking is now illegal in heretofore smoke-filled rooms. Thus they have to do their dirty work in plain sight.
Just sayin’…
AG
Santorum needs to throw a Hail Mary to have any chance of changing the conversation, never mind thwarting the coronation. Could he offer Newt the VP slot now in return for Newt withdrawing and supporting him? Would a Palin endorsement make any difference? Regardless of the fix, it is still hugely damaging for Romney not to be able to close the deal for so long against terrible opposition. But why is he only a couple of points behind Obama at this stage even allowing for the distortion caused by Rasmussen polls? Is there any chance the Republican base will not simply fall in line and vote for him against Obama in November?
Texas conventions and primary, May 29 (pending litigation)
Pennsylvania, New York, April 24
California, New Jersey, June 5
Most of all: Utah, June 26
There’re your Hail Marys
Yea but can he win New York and California with the Grinch still in the race?
I fully expect Romney to win the nomination outright. However, it is getting to the point, if not already past the point, where Santorum is going to expect getting a prominent speaking role at the convention. I can see three scenarios.
Santorum will not be bought off to silence him or his rhetoric. To his followers, that would be akin to Judas’ 30 pieces of silver and the base is all he really has supporting him now.
I think you underestimate Mr. Santorum’s flexibility. He shocked a lot of would-be fans when he described his endorsement of Arlen Specter in terms of being a team player. Santorum will take his payoff, and take his seat. Just you watch.
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In a surprise move, President Obama named Jim Yong Kim as candidate for the next president of the World Bank. [Excellent choice – Oui]
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Etymology
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Thanks. I was a bit quick on the draw …
So what you’re saying is, you weren’t wrong, they just cheated.
“Balanced contest.” As if we didn’t know this contest was unbalanced six months ago.
Well, I was unaware of how unprepared Santorum is to take advantage of actually winning votes.
Rigged?
what convinced you, BooMan?
the 8 votes that came outta nowhere in Iowa?
or, when they just stopped counting counties in Maine once Willard was in the lead?
or, the 1500 people that they refused to let into Washington State caucus sites?
you mean that?
those were clues.