Last year, after the House of Representatives passed Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) budget plan, Democrats accused the Republicans of voting to kill Medicare. That claim was then named Lie of the Year by Politifact. It was a semantic disagreement that was mainly based on different value systems. For Democrats, Medicare’s main attraction is that it is a guaranteed benefit and that it is a single-payer system. If it could actually pass, most Democrats would line up in favor of giving Medicare to everyone, not just our seniors. Republicans tend to look at Medicare more as a wealth redistribution scheme and as a heavy financial burden. For Democrats, if you voucherize Medicare, you wipe out what makes it uniquely valuable. For Republicans, you’re still subsidizing health care for people who can’t afford it. For Democrats, a Medicare that isn’t guaranteed isn’t Medicare. For Republicans, a privatized Medicare is nothing more than a tweak.
Given this difference of worldview, I think it was grossly unfair for Politifact to call the Democrats’ claim the Lie of the Year. In every way that the issue matters to Democrats, their statement was true. If you just change the language a little and say that the Republicans voted “to kill Medicare as we know it,” it becomes a less contentious assertion. And that’s what the White House is going with now. After the Republicans approved Paul Ryan’s budget plan yesterday, which still includes a slightly modified Medicare privatization scheme, the president’s press secretary released a statement that began:
House Republicans today banded together to shower millionaires and billionaires with a massive tax cut paid for by ending Medicare as we know it and making extremely deep cuts to critical programs needed to create jobs and strengthen the middle class. The Ryan Republican budget would give every millionaire an average tax cut of at least $150,000, while preserving taxpayer giveaways to oil companies and breaks for Wall Street hedge fund managers.
Now, I expect the Republicans to claim that the White House is lying, but it won’t be that easy when Republican columnists are conceding the point. Here’s former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson, writing in the Washington Post:
By the 2030s, federal health-care commitments, along with interest on the debt, will consume just about all government revenue. Federal health spending is expected to grow from 5.6 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) to nearly 20 percent — about the modern average for the whole federal government. Maintaining “Medicare as we know it” and other unreformed health entitlements will make every other function of government as we know it impossible.
In other words, Paul Ryan’s proposal eliminates Medicare as we know it, but it does so out of necessity. Gerson’s overall argument is misleading and disingenuous, but his argument on killing Medicare is clear. He admits it will be killed “as we know it.”
The Republicans’ job, then, will be to convince us that this is necessary:
Americans are not suddenly enthusiastic about Medicare reform. But Ryan has made a sophisticated case for its necessity. His proposals have been generally embraced by congressional Republicans and the GOP’s likely presidential candidate. If Mitt Romney manages to win, the presentation of Ryan’s budget in 2013 would kick off a momentous national debate on the size and role of government…
…Ryan is all Wisconsin cheerful earnestness — the Boy Scout earning his federal budget badge. But this manner masks considerable ideological ambition. “We knew we were defining the movement,” he tells me. By setting out the case against unsustainable entitlement commitments, Ryan forced his GOP colleagues to pick a side, often against their will. The whole Republican Party will now defend and advance Ryan’s budget views — or suffer from their repudiation.
A third possibility exists. The Republican Party may defend and advance Ryan’s budget views and suffer from their repudiation. That’s what happened when, after he “won” a second term, President Bush sought to kill Social Security “as we know it.”
Overall, I think the Republicans have their work cut out for them. To begin with, they’re trying to pull off a giant snow-job. It’s hard to argue that it is absolutely necessary to kill Medicare as we know it when you’re increasing the defense budget and slashing taxes. As Steve Benen points out, Ryan is not only ignoring the Pentagon’s proposal to cut a half trillion out of their budget over the next decade, he’s calling the generals a bunch of liars who don’t really mean what they say. When has that kind of approach ever succeeded politically? Remember General Betray-Us?
Here’s the rest of the administration’s statement on the Ryan budget:
Today’s vote stands as another example of the Republican establishment grasping onto the same failed economic policies that stacked the deck against the middle class and created the worst financial crisis in decades. If the Ryan Republican budget is made a reality and the radical discretionary cuts fall across the board, by 2014, more than nine million students would see their Pell Grants fall by as much as $1100, and about 900,000 would lose their grants altogether. Clean energy programs would be cut nearly 20 percent, Head Start would offer 200,000 fewer slots per year, and critical medical research and science programs would see drastic cuts.
The President has put forward a balanced plan that would reduce our deficit by over $4 trillion by asking the wealthiest to pay their fair share, enacting responsible spending cuts and achieving significant health savings while still investing in the programs we need to grow our economy and bring economic security back to the middle class and seniors. Any serious attempt at tackling our deficits must be balanced, fair and demand shared responsibility. The Ryan Republican budget clearly fails that test.
Maybe the most important thing to remember is this:
“We knew we were defining the movement,” [Ryan] told me.
Now it is up to us to define their movement.
Most progressives would. I’m not sure about most Democrats, either the sold-out ones in Washington or the ones in the heartland who mostly believe at least some of the right-wing-think-tank propaganda about how “big government” is the greatest evil we face.
that’s why I said if it could pass. Democrats will vote to create single-payer if the result is that single-payer is created. They will not even contemplate the idea aloud if all it’s going to do is dry up their fundraising and put a target on their back.
Now this has become one of those Mobius-like logic problems I never learned the names of — most of them won’t vote for it because most of them won’t vote for it.
To me, the salient point is that only a tiny handful of them would ever challenge the insurance industry that way, and I can’t imagine that ever changing.
I disagree for the most part, although not entirely.
What is the prerequisite for getting a single-payer system like Medicare-for-all?
Probably about 73 senators, close to two-thirds of the House, and an ambitious president (perhaps in their second term).
Now, figure out the prerequisite for meeting those prerequisites.
It’s probably some kind of national calamity like the Great Depression or World War Two or the assassination of a popular president (as with JKF/LBJ).
Or, another scenario is the GOP cracking up like the Whigs and being incapable of playing the role of sole opposition party. But that happened in the context of the country going to war with itself, and I don’t think we want a repeat.
Now this has become one of those Mobius-like logic problems I never learned the names of — most of them won’t vote for it because most of them won’t vote for it.
No, it hasn’t. Most Democrats won’t vote for it because it can’t pass. The reason it can’t pass is not because “most Democrats won’t vote for it,” but because there’s this other party in Congress, all of whom will vote against it, and that is what prevents it from passing.
You are wrong, because we couldn’t even pass it when we had 60 votes. And yes, I know all about the 6 weeks .. or whatever time frame it was. Steven is right. There are too many crooked Democrats.
You are wrong, because we couldn’t even pass it when we had 60 votes.
OK, a little simple math: 40 Republican No votes + 2 Democratic No votes = 58 Democratic Yes votes.
There are too many crooked, or conservative, Democrats. Two out of 60 is too many.
On the other hand, people love them some status quo on Medicare and Social Security, so I don’t know how the Republicans expect to move the needle on this. I figure they’re planning a Wisconsin-style assault — ram some of these changes through as soon as possible after the next time they seize the executive and legislative branches, and accept the losses in the next elections as the eggs you have to break to make the Koch brothers’ omelet.
Yup. I think that’s going to be their MO for the foreseeable future – not so very different from their usual overreach, but LOTS faster, angrier, and stupider.
Bush at least had the sense not to keep quiet about reforming social security until after the elections were safely over and he was a lame duck, and even then it was a debacle. Can you imagine if he had campaigned on it? We might have had President Kerry. I try not to get my hopes up because I’ve been disappointed so often in the past, but Republicans sure seem to be setting themselves up to do poorly in November.
Of course they’re not “unsustainable”; the GOP just does not want to sustain them, especially if it will inconvenience their precious millionaires.
We need to remind people that Medicare is an insurance program that everyone has already paid into, so Ryan’s “reform” is really welshing on a debt.
That’s not entirely true. There really is a medical inflation problem that, left unchecked, would render Medicare and Medicaid unsustainable.
It actually is important to do something about medical inflation.
I agree, but no bullshit Republican “plan” will do anything about that either.
No, it won’t. They aren’t even trying an failing.
They just have no intention of doing anything about the problem.
I suppose “Raise taxes to raise income to support the progected rising cost of medical care” ever entered these idiots skulls.
True, but I think it’s better to frame that as a medical inflation problem, and not a Medicare problem. Pushing people off medicare onto a voucher system isn’t going to solve the problem, it’s just going to transfer the problem to seniors.
You know, a good con artist can pull off a giant snow job if it has the lure of something people actually want. But the Republicans are trying to pull off a giant snow job about something that ia (a) very important, and (b) works just fine. And furthermore (c) the reputation of the GOP with most people has never been lower, i.e. nobody with an IQ above room temperature, who is not already blinded by the glare of ideology, trusts them as far as they an throw them. Put it all together and the idea is going to go over about as well as privatizing social security.
I don’t think they’ll suffer for that part of their snow job. Although the fact that it involves reneging on the debt ceiling deal will exact a political toll, the fact that they’re calling the generals liars won’t.
“General Betray-Us” was toxic because it came from the left. Republicans have been disrespecting the military for years and not directly paying a political price for it. (Why do you think so much of the military supported Ron Paul?) To pick the obvious example, the entire brass opposed going to war in Iraq, and I can’t imagine anything more contemptuous of our soldiers than sending them out to risk their lives under false pretenses. And it’s happening again – most military experts think striking Iran would be a futile disaster, but find a Republican who isn’t pushing for exactly that.
But because they’re hawks, and therefore somehow “experts” on all things military, they get a pass. Thanks to Iraq and years of extreme rhetoric (and Obama’s competence), more people now trust Democrats on matters of national security. But that still doesn’t mean anyone will (or has) called the R’s out when their bloodlust defies both the generals and common sense.
If Mitt Romney manages to win, the presentation of Ryan’s budget in 2013 would kick off a momentous national debate on the size and role of government.
This is a very strange way of looking at it. Has he really not noticed that we’re already having this momentous national debate? Barack Obama and (presumably) Mitt Romney are going to be campaigning against each other for most of the rest of this year, and then we’re going to have a debate on the size and role of government?