It looks like the consensus is that Mitt Romney will choose one of the architects of the economic collapse as his running mate:
There is no doubt in the minds of Republican National Committee members that Mitt Romney will be their standard bearer in the fall, and already consensus is building behind one potential vice presidential nominee — Ohio Sen. Rob Portman.
In an informal survey of more than half of the Republican State Chairmen and national committee people at this weekend’s State Chairman meeting at a resort here, two-thirds said they believe Portman is the most-likely and best-qualified running-mate for Mitt Romney. The committee members spoke to BuzzFeed only on the condition of anonymity.
“He’s from Ohio, and we need to win Ohio, it’s that simple,” said one state chair.
Rob Portman served as Bush’s U.S. Trade Representative in 2005-6 before being promoted to Director of the Office of Management and Budget in 2006-7. But he makes the most sense for Romney. He’s not a tea party Republican or a culture warrior. He’s a glorified accountant. He’s the least crazy and damaged candidate from a major swing-state, and he has worked in the White House before. I’ll be surprised if Romney doesn’t pick Portman. Remember, when picking a running mate, first do no harm.
Yet, a Romney/Portman ticket would be pretty bland. It would be very hard for them to whip up the base. It’s their best ticket, but it won’t help them too much further down the ballot. A lot of conservatives will simply stay home.
Portman is pretty well liked here in Ohio, at least among Republicans. And some Democrats, too. He would probably help Mitt in the state, to some degree. In Ohio, I’m not sure that it would have a negative impact on the turnout of the Republican base. In Ohio, they generally get in line like a good soldier is supposed to.
You are right about the “First, do no harm” axiom. Portman would be an attractive candidate to low information, “moderate” white voters in the state. He is safely “The Everyman”. It is an easy sell to those voters.
And R-money wants to be tied to the W. disaster?
Well, it would certainly be about convincing enough people that Portman had a direct hand in the W disaster. He was not exactly a high profile kind of guy during his Bush years. Absolutely, he would be in the figurative cross-hairs of the Obama team, but he doesn’t have a lot of high profile baggage that some of the others mentioned might be carrying.
OH!!!
When I read the headline I thought maybe he was going to try to make a real race of it and choose Natalie Portman.
I mean…it makes sense, right?
She’s a better actress than Sarah Palin, for sure.
She’s better looking, too.
And richer as well.
She also probably knows more about how the world really works. I mean…she’s survived Hollywood, and Hollywood dictates much of what Americans consider “reality.”
Plus…she was born in Israel and maintains dual citizenship in both Israel and the U.S.
A natural!!!
But…I forgot.
He’s not supposed to make a race of it.
Silly me.
How soon we
regretforget.You mean this Portman, right?
He looks like an aging chipmunk.
Perfect.
Willard the Rat Guy and an over the hill Alvin.
That’ll get him elected.
OH yes!!!
Can’t wait!!!
AG
Duhhh…bad link above.
Here’s the right one.
Plus…she’s smarter than Palin, too.
How do I know?
From the same link:
Of course…dum dums like G. W. Butch go to Harvard too, plus Portman managed to be in close contact with Alan Dershowitz as his research assistant while she was there, so her choice of human contacts might easily be questioned. But still…Cambridge or Wasilla, take your pick. Which one will tend to nourish the mind more?
Duuuuhhhh…
AG
If Romney wins Ohio, he probably wins.
It’s the safe move — and maybe the only move.
“Probably?” “Consensus?”
It’s still April. What was the “consensus” for VP selections in 2008? Because I’m pretty sure it wasn’t Biden or Palin.
If anything, it was Evan Bayh for the Dems and Pawlenty for the GOP. The early consensus is always these whitebread midwestern goofballs. Very few of them have ever gotten the final call.
Yes, let’s all just take a deep breath and then read this (hot off the press):
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002588096
I thought the consensus in April was one of the Virginia boys? And I figured McCain was going Lieberman — not sure if that was the consensus.
On the topic as a whole, I’m still of the mind that the most important part of picking a VP is to help downticket in the Senate. If Obama loses the Senate and the House, he loses a lot of leverage. At least right now with the Senate being held by Democrats they can say, “Uh, your shitty House bill can’t pass the Senate. Try again.” Portman fits that bill, so I think it’s a pretty nice pick. But then you’d have to look at polling: does he help bring down Sherrod Brown? If not, look elsewhere.
The race in 2008 was just warming up in April. There’s a ways to go.
Camp Mittens will float these Possible VP Pick-names from now until the last minute and the least gag-inducing name will get the nod.
YES!!!
AG
One fundy organization says Portman loves him some Jesus, so that’s one box checked.
Not much regional balance there, but surely Mittens is supposed to be the economy expert – why does he need to shore up his business reputation with another economy “expert”? Does he not need to boost his base amongst christian conservatives/southerners/westerners and people with foreign policy/military experience? What about women/hispanics/minorities.
Not v. many boxes ticked there.
Show me a way that Romney loses Ohio and wins the general election.
A Portman pick is very, very specifically tailored to help in one very likely scenario.
And how many ways can Obama lose Ohio and still win?
Virginia. North Carolina. Arizona. Florida. Missouri. Iowa.
Because the Dems have moved Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada to more or less “lean Dem,” there are plenty of ways to winning without Ohio. This is assuming he wins New Hampshire. If Obama lost NH, he wouldn’t have enough with just Iowa.
Andrew Gelman argues that VP candidates don’t help win states. He estimated the help to be maybe 3%.
Ironically he actually said “On one hand, we’ve estimated the VP home-state advantage to be about 3 percentage points, enough to win Ohio perhaps…”
So Rob Portman probably is the best candidate.
This race will be hard to whip up the base..unless
*The E-Voting/Optical scanning Machines private corporate companies are kicked out of our elections
*5 million minority voters stripped off the ballot
*Redistricting
*Citizens United
Seems to me w/ just these few factors, it is a horse race once again.