While a stickler might insist that our illegal immigration problem won’t be solved until every single illegal entry is prevented, a more realistic metric is that it will be solved when an equal or greater number of undocumented workers are leaving as are arriving. In that case, the problem is solved, at least for now.
According to a report released by the Pew Hispanic Center, the massive wave of Mexicans entering this country illegally is subsiding and a rising counter current of Mexicans returning to their homeland has brought net migration to a statistical equilibrium.
This trend began about five years ago, according to the report, and the number of undocumented Mexican nationals in the U.S. has fallen from 7 million to 6.1 million. At the same time, the number returning – or, as Mitt Romney would put it, “self-deporting” – has jumped significantly.
People will disagree about the merits of this development. The Obama administration deported a record 400,000 people last year alone. That is an enormous number; it’s an average of 1,096 people per day, including weekends and holidays. And people will disagree about the causes and who deserves credit. Is it tougher enforcement, a lower Mexican birthrate, an improving Mexican economy relative to a slumping American one? We can bicker about the details, but one thing is clear. If we are no longer experiencing a net gain in undocumented workers, the problem is not getting worse. Despite getting no help from the Republicans on a comprehensive immigration reform plan, illegal immigration from Mexico is now at a stand still.
When John McCain and Teddy Kennedy’s immigration reform plan fell apart under President Bush, McCain came out and said that we couldn’t do immigration reform until we got the border under control. Well, it’s now under control. And we still need reform for two reasons. First, the economic and demographic conditions that led to this equilibrium on the border can and will change. Second, we still have over six million undocumented people in this country, and we can’t and shouldn’t deport them all.
In the meantime, Obama can take credit for overseeing a successful program to staunch the flow of undocumented workers. How much credit he deserves is debatable, but he deserves some. And we can also look closely at the cost of his program. How many families are being torn apart?
The main thing, though, is that there is no longer any excuse for putting off a comprehensive immigration reform bill. The border is secure enough that the problem has been stabilized. And that’s all anyone can realistically expect.