It seems that all anyone wants to talk about tonight is the new poll out of Virginia that shows that women there hate Romney and that Clarence Thomas is the only black man in the state who plans to vote for him. Kos did some good analysis on a separate but related subject, which is that Obama has a Southwestern strategy and, if he wins Arizona, Romney is going to be pretty near out of luck.
I know it’s early and pretty much anything can still happen, but I want to talk about a hypothetical scenario. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Obama goes on to win every state that he won last time, plus Arizona. And let’s say that he wins by even stronger margins in Virginia and North Carolina. And let’s say that Romney doesn’t even come close to winning anywhere in the Upper Midwest and gets beats solidly in Florida.
This isn’t a pie in the sky scenario. Recent polls show Obama leading, tied, or narrowly behind in Arizona. And other polls show him leading in North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, and in other swingy states. So, let’s think about this. How would the Republicans react?
In recent times, the Republicans have responded to victory and defeat the same way. They interpret either outcome as proof that they need to move to the right. But an electoral map like the one I’ve described puts them in a no-win situation. Let me lay out some of the features of this map.
GOP shut out in New England (34 electoral votes)
GOP shut out in Mid-Atlantic, including PA and DC (83 electoral votes)
GOP shut out in Upper Midwest (96 electoral votes)
GOP shut out on Pacific coast (73 electoral votes)
GOP loses Southwest, including Colorado, 29-5 (GOP holds Utah)
GOP cedes 55 electoral votes from the Old Confederacy (Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida).
What is that? About 370 electoral votes? About 100 more than is required to win the presidency?
You can’t turn that around by winning back New Hampshire (4 votes) or Indiana (11 votes). If the GOP isn’t close in states like Florida and Virginia and they’re fighting for their lives in Arizona and North Carolina, then they don’t have very good odds of winning the presidency any time soon. And, if they win it, they’ll win it like Bush, by the skin of their teeth.
It’s too early to say with confidence that this will be the result of the election, but if this is what happens, the GOP pretty much has to do a major reassessment. They will have to figure out a way to win back constituencies. My prediction is that their two biggest obstacles to regaining viability as a national party will be Latino voters and suburban women. They will have give up being the party of angry white men and make some kind of deal on comprehensive immigration reform. And they are going to have to stop these incredibly aggressive attacks on abortion rights and women’s health. If they don’t, they simply will not win the presidency ever again.
It won’t be an easy transition, and it’s possible that they won’t be able to transform themselves. The GOP was unable to gain control of the House of Representatives for more than two single terms between 1933 and 1995. They know how to operate in a near-permanent minority. I think that’s where they’re headed.
But, another way of looking at current events is that they are currently at their high-water mark for conservatism, and if they can just win this election they can really undo the New Deal, the Great Society, and overturn Roe v. Wade. They can use the High Court to give them advantages, like unlimited corporate spending in elections, that will allow them to remain as a viable national party.
I’m optimistic, but the stakes are incredibly high in this election.
