There is something that every analysis piece of the president’s decision to embrace gay marriage has missed. They all wonder whether his decision will dampen enthusiasm among black voters, but they don’t ask why black voters support Democrats at better than a 90% clip. There are many reasons for this, but the most important one is that Republicans send a clear and sustained message that they do not like black people. They characterize them with negative stereotypes on a constant basis. They feed the feeling of white resentment by continuously suggesting that government programs for the poor are just handouts that white people give to undeserving black people. And, in this cycle, they’ve gone so far as to pass bills all across the country that are ostensibly about voter fraud but which are in effect nothing less than Jim Crow-lite voter disenfranchisement laws.
In the black community, there is a very large church-going community. And many of those churches are very traditional and quite conservative on social issues, including sexual orientation. These voters do not support gay marriage. But they’d like to remain voters. They’re not going to show up to vote for a party that is doing everything it can to keep them from the polls. They aren’t going to vote for a party that demonizes them and their children for political profit.
It will be hard to replicate the excitement Obama’s first run for the presidency created in the black community, but that’s a separate question, isn’t it? Black folks play the role of Lex Luther every day on Fox News. Do these analysts think that they don’t notice this? But we don’t see analysis about how hyping the practically non-existent New Black Panther Party or the constant ridicule of black culture on Fox News is going to harm the Republican nominee. How do black folks feel about the fact that the Mormon Church banned black people until the 1970’s? How do black folks feel about Mitt Romney saying he is not concerned about poor people? How do they feel about the Republicans’ budget priorities than slash support for food security and medical treatment and add billions to the military?
The real story isn’t even in the black community because they long ago figured out that the Republicans dislike them. What’s happening now is that Latinos are coming to the same conclusion. There are plenty of very socially conservative Latinos. Many of them are anti-choice. Many of them are very protective of their daughters and embrace very traditional ideas about gender roles. There’s a reason that George W. Bush won over 40% of the Latino vote. And there’s a reason that John McCain, despite trying to advance an immigration reform bill, only won 33% of their votes. There’s a reason that Mitt Romney is polling well below McCain. When you make it clear as a party that you don’t like a segment of the population, that segment of the population doesn’t like you back.
Next on the list is women who use contraception. You make it clear that you don’t like them, and you can go tubing down the gender gap.
Nevertheless, the president did make matters harder for himself in swing states by coming out for marriage equality. But that’s because marriage equality still polls poorly in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. He certainly didn’t improve his prospects in those states by taking his new position. That it did it anyway showed courage. But it also probably shows that they don’t think it will cost him the election.
What people should be focusing on is not how black folks feel about marriage equality but how Republicans are alienating huge constituencies of people with their intolerance and radicalism.