I’ll stipulate that Charlie Cook’s analysis is justified by the numbers he is looking at, but I just do not believe that this is going to be a close election. I might have said the same thing in 1980. Yes, in 1980, the polls were close during the summer. There were real doubts that the voters would take Ronald Reagan seriously. But, ultimately, you could see many signs that the electorate was going to reject President Carter and the Democrats in rather emphatic fashion. Reagan won the presidency in a landslide and his party won 12 Senate and 34 House seats. That was enough to win control of the Senate for the first time since 1954.
Polls don’t mean a whole lot this far out. The only bright spot for Republicans right now is that they will do considerably better than they should. Because they largely controlled the redistricting process and they have a huge money advantage thanks to Citizens United, and because they will disenfranchise many black and brown voters with their photo ID requirements, they will win seats that they would have lost two or four or six years ago.
I should add a caveat here. If somehow Mitt Romney wins this election, he will do so by the narrowest of Electoral College margins. But I don’t think he will win. And I don’t think he will lose narrowly. I think the American people will react is similar fashion to how they reacted to McGovern, Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis. I don’t mean that Obama will win in a total landslide. I just mean that the people will tilt strongly in his direction at the end.
There are many states that will vote for Romney even if he loses the argument in dramatic fashion. But I think he will win those states by a much narrower margin than McCain won them. And I think we will retain control of the Senate and retake control of the House.
Call me an optimist, but Mitt Romney is not a skilled politician or a viable alternative to the president. And I believe the American people will agree.
I think the American people will react is similar fashion to how they reacted to McGovern, Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis. I don’t mean that Obama will win in a total landslide. I just mean that the people will tilt strongly in his direction at the end.
Keeping in mind that “close” means something different today than it did in the 70s and 80s.
There just are not as many persuadable voters anymore.
This means that electoral margins are going to be closer than they were in the past, but it also means that a smaller electoral margin is more decisive and safer than that same margin would have been 30 years ago.
those are good points but I’d quibble a bit with one of them.
yes, the two sides have more locked-in voters than in the past. But the middle is still about 30 percent of the country and then there is turnout at the margins. The persuadable universe is vast enough to make a 60-40 result completely possible, if still unlikely.
I thought the middle was closer to 10-15%.
Anyhow I think for the reasons you stated (money, redistricting, Juan Crow) this election will be close.
8% of the electorate is independents who are independents, and not label-dodging partisans.
I doubt I am a crazy person, so it is hard for me to be sure how crazy people will vote (and there are a lot of crazy people. Racists too.), but I just don’t see how Obama loses.
Retake the House? That might be really optimistic.
But the GOP has done almost nothing in the last three years to show they are ready to lead — even if the core of the GOP party don’t really want them to lead. They just want the government to go away and I don’t think that’s what most Americans want. So you may have a point.
I think the House is VERY doable, and if Obama wins, I think that the House will come with him. The insanity of the REpukes is palpable.
Of note, Ryan’s district in WI is the only one in the recent election where the Dems had success. I think Ryan and many of the hard right are in trouble, and I think older voters are not happy with catfood.
Are the Dems making Ryan’s district a fight this time? Their lack of interest in a winnable fight for a spectacular win has been driving me crazy for a long time. Do they have a viable candidate this time that they’re going to fight for?
Rob Zerban is running against Paul Ryan. He’s good and he’s being effective. He has a good chance and is someone worth supporting. Check him out.
http://www.robzerban.com/
“I decided to run for Congress because Paul Ryan’s plan to destroy Social Security and Medicare is the wrong path for our nation.
Republicans are punishing working families during this recession. Congress needs a new direction and a new plan. I created two successful small businesses and over 45 jobs, so I know what it takes to get this economy moving again. I wrote responsible budgets for my business that didn’t leave my employees behind, and I know I can do a better job.”
Thanks for the info. I feel sure a good Dem populist type can take this seat, as long as the Party doesn’t opt out again.
And just to reiterate, in the recall election, the only seat that the Dems won this round was in Ryan’s district. It’s Racine Ct, in the very Southeast of WI – just north of IL. I am very familiar with that district, as my mom grew up 20 MI S of the WI line, and my wife is from Milwaukee. Working class district. If this district swung D in this election, the general for Ryan is VERY winable for the D side.
I sooo want to believe you, but I live in north Florida and I just don’t see that happening here. They have the money here AND I don’t trust how they count votes in this state!
Wrong.
Republicans were able to win by gigantic margins because the electorate was 80+% white. Nixon sure didn’t get to 60% by attracting a lot of black votes.
But even now, the white vote is still 75% of all voters. And Obama is gonna lose whites 60/40. He just is. He lost 55/45 in 08. Kerry lost 60/40 in 04, so Obama was actually an improvement, believe it or not.
But that was the high water mark. We’ve seen it consistently ever since he was inaugurated. There’s no mathematical way to get to 57-60% nationwide unless
a) Obama wins nonblack minority votes (Asian and Hispanic) 90/10 or even 95/5 like he does black votes
or
b) he splits the white vote 50/50
What have you seen in the last four years that makes you think 50% of the white vote is listening or attainable? Unless Republican voting white numbers crater in despair to Romney’s candidacy, there’s just no way. There’s a racial ceiling on the President’s margin of victory.
This election won’t be decided until the presidential debates. No one can stand to pay any attention these days, except for those directly connected to policy (ie., gays, Latinos).
The other crucial determinate, in my opinion, more than the economy, will be health care. It’s going to be a big illustration of the differences in philosophy that will swing many voters. That is all still yet to come in September and October.
I certainly hope you are correct and I know you follow these things more closely than I do.
The thing that I have been scratching my head about is why there is so little discussion about congressional elections this year. You make some points in your post about redistricting and voter suppression and we also have to consider in the Senate, the Democrats are defending a lot more seats this year than the GOP.
I believe Obama wins re-election but he just a firewall. For the country to move forward, Congress needs to be changed. Otherwise, there is more obstruction which win or lose in the Senate, we will still see from McConnell and crew.
Do you suppose if Obama wins and one of the conservative justices seats come up during his second term, will there be a filibuster of whoever his appointee is short of it being Bork?
If that seat comes up, Obama has the option of holding fast and leaving the court at a 4-4 split until he gets his nominee through. It could be the test of whether he’s going to start kicking some ass in his second term.
This is wholly anecdotal, but I have been surprised during recent phone banking for the President how many registered Republicans have told me are “undecided”. And they seem somewhat persuadeable when you talk to them. Many Republicans just don’t like Mitt. And this is heavy Republican area. Interesting.
That is surprising and sure goes against the impression the media tries to promote. It suggests that a good ground game might pay more dividend than the “pros” expect.
Optimism has energy, it’s a very good thing. The GOP and Romney have made it their career to disenfranchise women, gays, Latinos, the elderly, union members, single mothers, anyone who needs health insurance or assistance. I wonder how anyone but the upper 1% would even think of voting for Romney or Republicans, but the problem is they don’t follow up to find out the truth. President Obama is as saavy as usual in going for Romney’s Bain record. Romney wants to make it about the economy and jobs and President Obama says ok, let’s talk about Bain. It’s getting very good traction in the press with more reveals all the time. Just saw articles about Bain/Romney outsourcing jobs.
Some interesting polls
6/22/12 New Poll: Obama leads Romney among Latinos in key 2012 battleground states
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/06/22/new-poll-obama-leads-romney-among-latinos-in-key-2012
-battleground-states/
“….In the five states combined Obama lead Romney 63% to 27%, however in southwestern battlegrounds of Arizona, Colorado and Nevada Obama performed even better. In Arizona Obama received 74% to 18% for Romney, in Colorado he was favored by 70% to 22% and in Nevada 69% to 20%. In Virginia, Obama lead 59% to 28% over Romney among Latino registered voters….”
This article is saying Asian Americans have undecideds that could be persuaded, but President Obama has a very solid lead right now. This was in May:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/05/asian-americans-2012s-stealth-swing-vote/256567/
“….Obama was strongest among Indian-American voters, leading Romney by a margin of 76 to 8 percent in the poll, and weakest among Filipino Americans, where the vote was 57 percent to 20 percent. Among Chinese Americans, it was 68 percent for Obama, 8 percent for Romney….”
I’m surprised that Obama is doing that well with Indian-Americans since they tend to be socially conservative. But then Obama is conservative in his personal life.
You frequently see Republicans making the argument that certain minority groups that are strongly Democratic could be winnable for the GOP if they appeal to those groups on social issues. Indeed, Republicans used to win Muslim voters that way, and do very well among Latino voters.
But here’s the thing: minority voters don’t like bigots, regardless of where they bigotry is targeted. They see somebody talking like George Wallace, and even if he isn’t talking about them, they can imagine that they’ll be next.
The Republicans could win these voters, but the combination of their anti-immigrant rhetoric and their treatment of Barack Obama blows away whatever policy and social appeals they might have used.
That sure is what the polls seem to be saying at the moment. From the sparse talk I hear from South Asians around here, I get the impression that they tend to be more comfortable with living and letting live on social issues than “mainstream” Americans. They’ve seen what Talibanlike attitudes can do to a country. It’s why many of them are here, and they’re not interested in transplanting that kind of theocracy to their new home.
They also work hard, and want to keep their money, as opposed to having it redistributed…
You Lose!
You Lose!
Except we don’t lose. We win, by great big gigantic landslides like 75-25 or 80-20..
I was listening to some conservative asian republican woman (didn’t catch her name) say just this to the BBC on Tuesday. I started laughing. She talked about Republican importance on family, education and tradition and how Asian Americans are a natural fit with the GOP.
Tradition I’ll grant you, I see tradition as useless myself, but anyone who has eyes to see know the Democrats care far more about Education and Family.
What do you mean by he’s conservative in his personal life?
Obama’s not a social conservative. If you believe that you haven’t met any real social conservatives.
I think it is important to look at the type of campaign Romney is runnig. He really isn’t out there trying to bring new voters to his side. He knows that the Republican candidate has roughly 45% opf the vote locked up. He feels that is probably enough if he can damage Obama enough to turn some of Obama’s voters off and count on the GOP voter suppression tactics to diminish the Dem turnout sufficiently.
He is running his campaign not to lose any of that 45%. He cannot afford to have any defections or desertions at all. So far, by avoiding any real meaningful interviews and avoiding any real discussion of his policies he is able to do that.
However, once the campaign begins in earnest, and specially during the debates, he may not be able to do so. And we know he is a gaffe machine and tends to lose his cool under pressure. I fully expect, for example, Obama to try to tie him to the Tea Party in the debates. If he succeeds, that will really hurt Romney with the moderate independent vote. However, if Romney works to disassociate with the Tea Party, he loses some of that vote.
The Obama campaign right now is focused on keeping the Romney ceiling at that 45%. At some point, I am pretty certain they will work more on whittling that number down.
I, eprsonally am optimistic about the Dems regaining the House. Remember 2010 brought the GOP into power based on low turnout and anger. And a lot of those races were pretty close.
And in the Senate, I expect the Dems to hold, mainly because of Republicans shooting themselves in the foot again in places like IN and ND.
Nate Silver gives the most likely outcome as Obama 290.2 electoral votes, Romney 247.8. Details at
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
In my gut I can’t imagine Obama losing, but then I’m reminded of the kind of things Americans believe and have to wonder if a combination of ignorance and a pathetic excuse for news media will be enough to overcome Obama’s obvious superiority over Romney, in every way.
The debates should be cause for much hope, but their format and execution are so disgraceful — aimed at selecting for the silliest windbaggery over substance — that that, too, remains a hope with a big cloud over it. Still, Americans do agree with the Dems on the big issues by a big margin. If the Dems can manage to just communicate the difference they should retake the White House and at least improve their Congressional standing.
It’s tiresome to keep saying it, but turnout at this point is a total mystery — enough to keep polls from meaning anything at all. I think there’s a sense in the air that some Rep voters and leaners may drop out or even switch sides as we see more clearly what the GOP is taking away. Turnout, not just among Dem voters, but indies and Reps, could yield unexpected gains, but will require a huge and expansive ground game. Are we up to that?
Totally different feeling in my gut, unfortunately. I can easily imagine a Romney win, albeit narrowly and possibly suspiciously. And I can’t imagine someone like Nice Guy Obama contesting it.
As for debates, did Kerry’s thorough thumping of W three times — once in a clear knockout — spell the difference? (Or was it the Repub SoS in OH and Rove who decided it?)
Re turnout, agree but don’t forget how many Ds will turn out in key states only to be turned away by GOP vote suppression laws or told they can only have a provisional ballot. Last I checked, these D-voter suppression laws are going to be in effect in FL, OH, WI and to a lesser extent in VA. Those are just the states I can recall now. The list might be longer.
Finally the current polls probably aren’t able to reflect the Enthusiasm Gap which will likely be a factor in the fall. That is, Rs will be more enthused about the opening to oust Obama, despite the only moderate enthusiasm for their nominee, than Ds will be enthusiastic to return their guy to office. A little like 1968 and 1980.
Bullshit!
OT, but I hear from ths twitter verse that Obama is lighting it up at NALEO
Doesn’t using 1980 as your point of comparison suggest just the opposite? Carter support collapsed in 1980 largely because Reagan was able to keep the campaign focussed on the economy (“Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”). Do you see the recovery getting stronger this fall? Most economists don’t.
I agree with you that if Romney wins, it will be a narrow electoral vote victory. But I think that that is the most likely outcome here. If you look at the midwest, specifically the traditional Big-10 states (Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio), you have seven states that Obama carried in 2008. I think he’ll hold onto Minnesota and (of course) Illinois this time around. If the others go to Romney, then with the McCain states plus Florida, Romney has exactly the 270 electoral votes he needs. I think that’s a very likely outcome (although Romney will probably also have North Carolina as a cushion).
As for the Senate, I see little hope that the Democratic majority will survive. The amount of money that will be spent on GOP candidates will be so overwhelming that all the toss-ups will go their way, which would give them something like 55 Senators.
Okay. “You’re an optimist.” The gerryiatric Supreme Court, the gerrymandered House districts, the structurally anti-democratic Senate and the resetting time bomb Electoral College, means you can call me an optimist. I am discomforted relying upon the dithering ‘undecideds’ as they seem to be the least informed, most easily swayed portion of the population. If they have paid so little attention so far the attention they pay later seems of questionable quality and means that the last 96 hours or so any insignificant hiccup determines the outcome for four or more years. a disastrous decision making process
that’s been my prediction for a long time now.
I see him meeting or exceeding the electoral college numbers he got last time, and the dems retaining the senate and regaining the house.
The fear of rightwingnuttery is gonna have voters tilting in his direction like umbrellas in a gale… The Mutt has only compounded his problems with the endless and senseless lying, given the large element of distrust that’ll inevitably (whether the “liberal” media willfully cooperates in disseminating it and permeating their brains with it or not) introduce. It’s bad enough that he’s an extremist, but a chronically lying one too? Maybe he’s lying about how extreme he intends to be, and will be moreso.
Hopefully it’ll kick the Mutt outta politics for good as well.
Boo…You are truly “whistling past the graveyard”…
If the election were held today, you know Obama would lose…no incumbent President has ever garnered a higher percentage of the vote than his approval rating (the only notable exception was W…exceeding it by one percent)…the best polls, Gallup and Rasmussen (I know he’s a right-winger, but he was closest in predicting the final results in 2008)…have Romney up, with Obaman in the mid-forties…O is toast, unless something dramatically changes…Happy Days are Here Again! Especially is we get the Senate!
Either Obama wins close, or Romney wins in a rout…your surely know that, in an incumbent election, undecideds break to the challenger…
Good luck!
Troll alert – what a pile of rancid shit. National polls mean NOTHING. Obama is up in OH, PA, MI, WI, NJ, and is on track to exceed 300 EV. So fuck that teabagger treason shit you are peddling.
In Nov, when you lose, I hope that it is very painful for you.
If the election were held today…
Obama would have spent the last year campaigning against Rmoney instead of the last six months. If the election were held today, the ground organizations in the states would have been doing their organizing.
If the election were held today, the American public would have spent the last two months paying close attention to Mitt Romney.
Nate Silver’s model says at this point the probability of an Obama double-digit popular vote win (“landslide”) is 9.7%, based on how forecasts made today turn out on November 6.
The Now-Cast (if the election were held today) probability of an Obama popular vote landslide is 0.3%.