I’ll stipulate that Charlie Cook’s analysis is justified by the numbers he is looking at, but I just do not believe that this is going to be a close election. I might have said the same thing in 1980. Yes, in 1980, the polls were close during the summer. There were real doubts that the voters would take Ronald Reagan seriously. But, ultimately, you could see many signs that the electorate was going to reject President Carter and the Democrats in rather emphatic fashion. Reagan won the presidency in a landslide and his party won 12 Senate and 34 House seats. That was enough to win control of the Senate for the first time since 1954.
Polls don’t mean a whole lot this far out. The only bright spot for Republicans right now is that they will do considerably better than they should. Because they largely controlled the redistricting process and they have a huge money advantage thanks to Citizens United, and because they will disenfranchise many black and brown voters with their photo ID requirements, they will win seats that they would have lost two or four or six years ago.
I should add a caveat here. If somehow Mitt Romney wins this election, he will do so by the narrowest of Electoral College margins. But I don’t think he will win. And I don’t think he will lose narrowly. I think the American people will react is similar fashion to how they reacted to McGovern, Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis. I don’t mean that Obama will win in a total landslide. I just mean that the people will tilt strongly in his direction at the end.
There are many states that will vote for Romney even if he loses the argument in dramatic fashion. But I think he will win those states by a much narrower margin than McCain won them. And I think we will retain control of the Senate and retake control of the House.
Call me an optimist, but Mitt Romney is not a skilled politician or a viable alternative to the president. And I believe the American people will agree.
